...WRITTEN BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON...

...CONTINUING HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK IN TEXAS...

...HURRICANE FORECASTING...

PART OF THE MISSION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER (TPC) IS TO SAVE LIVES AND PROTECT PROPERTY BY
ISSUING WATCHES...WARNINGS...FORECASTS...AND ANALYSES OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICS. THIS SECTION PROVIDES INFORMATION
ABOUT THE ROLES OF THOSE RESPONSIBLE FOR PROVIDING HURRICANE
INFORMATION TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND DECISION MAKERS.

THE TPC IS COMPRISED OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)...THE
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB)...AND THE TECHNICAL
SUPPORT BRANCH (TSB). DURING HURRICANE SEASON...THE LATTER TWO
PROVIDE SUPPORT TO THE NHC.

THE LOCAL NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES (WFOS) IN HURRICANE-PRONE
AREAS ARE ALSO IMPORTANT PARTICIPANTS IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.

THE NHC AND YOUR LOCAL WFO HAVE VARIOUS ROLES IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS THAT ARE CLOSELY COORDINATED. THEIR ACTIVITIES ARE
SUMMARIZED BELOW.

OBSERVATION...
OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING SATELLITES...BUOYS...RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT...AND RADAR ARE THE BASIS FOR ALL FORECAST AND WARNING
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NHC. QUALITY...QUANTITY...AND TIMELINESS
OF REMOTE SENSING OBSERVATIONS ARE CRITICAL FOR ACCURATE AND
TIMELY FORECASTS AND WARNINGS.

ANALYSIS...
THE VARIOUS OBSERVATIONS ARE CHECKED FOR QUALITY...ANALYZED...AND
PUT INTO A SUITE OF COMPUTER MODELS.

MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTERPRETATION...
THE COMPUTER MODELS TAKE IN THE OBSERVATIONS AND PERFORM MILLIONS
OF CALCULATIONS TO GENERATE PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANE BEHAVIOR AND
THE GENERAL CONDITIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN WHICH THE HURRICANE
IS EMBEDDED. THE MODEL RESULTS ARE PACKAGED AS GUIDANCE FOR THE
APPROPRIATE NATIONAL CENTERS AND LOCAL OFFICES AND FOR EVALUATION
AND USE IN THE NWS'S FORECAST AND WARNING PROCESS.

COORDINATION WITHIN THE NWS...
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ARE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE NATIONAL CENTERS
AND LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES TO PROVIDE CONSISTENCY...WHICH IS
CRITICAL DURING SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES.

PRODUCT GENERATION...
ONCE THE COORDINATION AND COLLABORATION PROCESS REACHES GROUP
CONSENSUS... THE ISSUING OFFICES GENERATE FORECAST AND WARNING
PRODUCTS FOR RELEASE TO THE PUBLIC.

PRODUCT DISSEMINATION...
TIMELY AND RELIABLE DISSEMINATION OF FORECASTS AND WARNINGS IS
CRITICAL TO THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE TYPES OF
PRODUCTS ISSUED ARE DESCRIBED ON THE FORECAST PRODUCTS PAGE.

COORDINATION WITH CUSTOMERS...
THE NHC AND THE LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE WORK WITH YOUR COMMUNITY
LEADERS TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE FORECAST AND WARNING PRODUCTS
ISSUED WERE USEFUL AND HOW THEY CAN PROVIDE YOU EVEN BETTER SERVICE
IN THE FUTURE.

WATCH VS. WARNING - KNOW THE DIFFERENCE

A HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR YOUR PART OF THE COAST INDICATES THE
POSSIBILITY THAT YOU COULD EXPERIENCE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WITHIN
36 HOURS. THIS WATCH SHOULD TRIGGER YOUR FAMILY'S DISASTER PLAN...
AND PROTECTIVE MEASURES SHOULD BE INITIATED... ESPECIALLY THOSE
ACTIONS THAT REQUIRE EXTRA TIME SUCH AS SECURING A BOAT... LEAVING
A BARRIER ISLAND...ETC.

A HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR YOUR PART OF THE COAST INDICATES
THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 74 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS OR LESS. ONCE THIS WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED... YOUR FAMILY
SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF COMPLETING PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND
DECIDING THE SAFEST LOCATION TO BE DURING THE STORM.

WEB SITES OF INTEREST ARE...

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/HAW2/ENGLISH/INTRO.SHTML...NATIONAL HURRICANE
AWARENESS WEEK...

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV...TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER  HOME PAGE.

WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV...NWS SOUTHERN REGIONAL HEADQUARTERS HOME PAGE.