February 2003 lived up to February's Climatic History of Temperature Extremes.
Although some Februarys have had more temperature extremes, like 1980,
1981 and 1996, February 2003 brought a variety of precipitation types,
and wetter than normal over the eastern parts of South Central Texas.
The month ended up with the average temperature below normal.
The month of February began with a warming trend,
as afternoon highs peaked on Monday the 3rd, for
the early part of the month. Afternoon highs on
the 3rd rose to the 70s over the hill country to
lower and mid 80s across parts of South Central Texas.
A cold front came to the area quickly thereafter
and cooled things back to seasonable normals.
Highs the next day were near 15 to 25 degrees
cooler. The clear day turned to mostly cloudy on Wednesday the 5th, as light rain began to
formed in the late morning and early afternoon,
then continued the rest
of the day. Thursday the 6th saw a brief warming
trend that ended late in the afternoon over the
Texas Hill Country and in the late afternoon and
early evening over South Central Texas,
as much colder weather came. A winter mix of precipitation
followed on Friday the 7th, and early Saturday morning the
8th.
On Thursday, February 6th, a surge of Arctic Air moved
across the Texas Hill Country in the afternoon, and across
South Central Texas in the late afternoon and early evening.
Overnight to early morning
temperatures by Friday morning, February 7th, fell to
the 30s across the Texas Hill Country to upper 30s
and around 40 over South Central Texas. Temperatures then fell
throughout the rest of the day from the cold north
winds and thick overcast skies. A precipitation making
weather system came from west and southwest after sunrise on the 7th,
and moved over the area, causing
scattered areas of precipitation.
By 9 am Friday, the 7th, light snow was reported at
Comstock in Val Verde County. It was not sticking
to the ground at the time. By 1210 pm, snow was
reported in Real County, as the band of snow had
moved from parts of Val Verde County to parts of
Edwards and Real County. Just after 12 Noon
snow was also reported at Concan in Northern Uvalde
County. By 133 pm snow was reported at Camp Wood,
Rio Frio, and Leakey in Real County. For the rest
of the afternoon, snow was reported over the
Texas Hill Country. Snow was reported 9 miles
west of Harper in West Gillespie County at
215 pm and at 315 pm light to moderate snow
was reported at Ingram in Kerr County. Further
south, sleet was reported at Lytle at 350 pm
in Atascosa County. By Friday
evening temperatures had fallen to lower 30s
over the hill country to the mid 30s over
South Central Texas. Another upper level disturbance
moved over the area from the west and southwest causing
another wave of precipitation. Scattered Snow continued in the evening
to midnight over the hill country, being reported at
Kerrville. Sleet was reported mixed with rain from
near Hondo to San Antonio and New Braunfels in the
evening hours. After midnight, snow was reported at
Kerrville, Fredricksburg, New Braunfels, San Antonio,
Austin Mabry, Austin Bergstrom, Georgetown, and
San Marcos. Further south from Austin to San Antonio,
the light snow was mixed with drizzle and light rain
and sleet, as temperatures were in the low to mid 30s.
Around and after sunrise on Saturday the 8th,
light rain and drizzle prevailed over the area,
Freezing rain was observed at Burnet. By late morning to
early afternoon, patchy light drizzle was observed
as temperatures went above freezing. Early morning
lows Saturday the 8th, varied from near 30 over the
Hill Country to the lower and mid 30s
across South Central Texas. Daytime highs under
overcast skies on the 8th, were in the mid to
upper 30s over the hill country to around 40
over South Central Texas.
Snow amounts in this event were as follows:
Harper 6 inches; Mountain Home 5 inches; Hunt 4 inches;
Ingram 3 inches; Kerrville near 2 inches; 1 mile north of Boerne 1 inch;
near 2 inches 6 miles north of Fredricksburg; 1 to 3 inches over
Blanco County; near 1 inch at Marble Falls; one half inch or
less over parts of Williamson County;
Leakey near 2 inches; Austin Mabry a Trace;
Austin Bergstrom International Airport 0.4 inches; San Antonio International
Airport 0.1 inches; Del Rio International Airport had a Trace,
while some parts of Val Verde County received 0.5 to
1 inch of snow; New Braunfels Municipal Airport a Trace;
and 0.5 inches 3 miles northwest of New Braunfels.
After a stretch of mild weather from the 9th to the 15th, cooler weather returned
the 16th, followed by milder conditions the 18th and 19th, ahead of a
strong upper level disturbance that brought a rain event to the area February
20th to 21st. In this event 2 to near 5 inches of rain fell over the
eastern parts of South Central Texas, while near a tenth of an inch
was observed over western parts of South Central Texas.
Extremes February 20th and 21st varied from 0.10 inches at Del Rio
to 5.19 inches at Dime Box in Lee County.
On February 20th, heavy rains affected parts of the hill country
to parts of Central Texas, including the Austin Area. Austin Bergstrom
International Airport picked up 3.53 inches of rain the 20th, while Austin
Mabry had 2.56 inches. Rainfall occurred further south also, where San
Antonio International Airport had 0.80 inches. The final
main part of this mid
to late February Rain maker came through the area during the day of February
21st, causing more rain. On February 21st, a large area of rain formed
between 200 AM and 230 AM between Hondo and Del Rio. The showers increased
to become numerous showers and thunderstorms by 400 AM from east of Uvalde
to south of Hondo, and north to the Hill Country. The thunderstorms caused
heavy rains, and continued to increase and move east by 600 AM, where rain
affected the Austin, San Marcos, New Braunfels and San Antonio Areas.
This wave of rain moved east affecting the east part of South Central
Texas after sunrise. The main weather maker for the 21st was locally heavy
rain, that caused flooding over ground saturated by Autumn and Early Winter
Rains. The greater than normal number of cloudy days also contributed
to less evaporation, and thus more soil moisture. In the day of February
21st, a 2nd wave of showers and thunderstorms moved over the area, followed
by a 3rd wave in the late afternoon and early evening, that moved over
the hill country and parts of Central Texas.
After the 3rd wave of rain, skies cleared out the night of the 21st and early morning of
the 22nd. Mostly sunny conditions prevailed over the weekend,
with warm conditions Sunday the 23rd, as afternoon highs rose
to the mid and upper 70s.
The warm weather ended quickly Sunday night the 23rd, as a surge of
cold arctic air came in from the north and northeast, sending temperatures
into the 30s to near 40 by sunrise Monday the 24th, a drop of nearly
40 degrees from afternoon highs the 23rd. It continued to get
colder throughout the day of Monday the 24th, one of the true
identifiers of Arctic Air. The late February 2003 Arctic Blast
came nearly a year after
the late February 2002 cold outbreak, only the February 2003 outbreak
was cloudier and brought precipitation, where the February 2002 event
was dry and cold. Freezing rain, sleet and some snow came with this event.
Freezing and frozen precipitation began in the afternoon of the 24th over
the hill country and spread east and south to the Austin and San Antonio
areas by the evening of the 24th. In the Austin Area, sleet and snow
were mixed in with occasional freezing rain.
The freezing rain and drizzle, mixed
with sleet shutdown many roads and highways, making travel hazardous.
In the night of the 24th to early morning hours of the 25th, some of the
waves of frozen precipitation was accompanied by thunder, as the environment
was unstable above the shallow Arctic Air. As an area of low pressure
formed in the northwest Gulf of Mexico the morning of the 25th, the Arctic
Air over Central and South Central Texas increased slightly,
keeping northerly
winds and chilly conditions over the area. Scattered areas of freezing
drizzle continued in the morning of the 25th, especially over the hill
country and parts of Central Texas. Record Low Maximum Temperatures
occurred the 24th, at Austin Bergstrom, 30, Austin Mabry, 30,
San Antonio 33, and Del Rio
37. These highs were the coldest daytime highs of record for the last
4 days of February. The freezing drizzle occurred off and on over northern
parts of South Central Texas in the afternoon of the 25th, and diminished
slowly the night of the 25th to morning of the 26th, ending by late morning
of the 26th. Record Low Maximum Temperatures occurred again
on the 26th at Austin Bergstrom with 37; Austin Mabry with 36;
and San Antonio with 41. In this cold event, the area was below
freezing for a number
of hours.
In this event the frozen precipitation consisted of mostly
freezing rain and drizzle, with some sleet, and some areas
had more sleet and snow, mixed with some freezing rain.
In the Austin Area, a mix of sleet and snow,
with some freezing rain was observed. Austin Mabry
picked up 0.6 inches of snow, while Austin Bergstrom
has 0.4 inches of snow on February 24th.
Although conditions gradually moderated a little on the 26th; however,
it still was cold. In the day of the 26th, skies
cleared in the Del Rio area, while clouds continued farther east.
On the 27th, warmer conditions came, as skies became mostly clear
in the afternoon, with highs rising to the 50s over the
east parts of the area to mid and upper 60s over the west
parts of the area. On the last day of the month, cloudy skies
prevailed with cool condtions, and afternoon highs were
near 60 over western sections of South Central Texas to
the lower 50s over eastern parts of the area.
Spring this year begins Saturday, March 20th at 700 PM CST.
Although warmer weather comes in March and April, there
have been periods of cold or cool outbreaks in March and
April during the past.
See History of Late March and April Cold Outbreaks.
Even as spring begins, there have been extremes that
showed up over the region in the past.
Go To Early Spring Exreme Weather Events
The latest 30 day outlook for March 2003 from
the National
Center of Environmental Prediction calls for the Average Temperature
to be below normal and for
Precipitation to be Above Normal over Central and
South Central Texas.
The latest 3 Month or 90
Day Outlook for March 2003 to May 2003 calls for
Below Normal Temperatures and Above Normal Precipitation
over Central and South
Central Texas. These latest 30 day and 90 day Outlooks were issued
on Thursday, February 20, 2002, from the National Center of Environmental
Prediction. To see the latest 30 and 90 day Monthly/Seasonal Outlooks
Go
to the Latest 30 and 90 Day Monthly/Seasonal Forecast from the
National Center of Environmental Prediction.
Note: These 30 day outlooks are based primarily on climate phenomena
that exhibit a relatively large degree of predictability such
as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, as well as decade-to-decade
variability and trends. Extra tropical circulation patterns on
monthly to seasonal time scales [such as the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO)] also significantly impact the monthly and seasonal temperature
and precipitation patterns, sometimes distorting expected ENSO-related
patterns. However, since the long-range predictability of these
extra tropical circulation patterns is very limited, they are
not explicitly represented in the extended-range forecasts. To
take these uncertainties into account, probabilities of temperature
and precipitation are decreased (increased) in regions where the
variability associated with these patterns is large (small).