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WCM
ALERT
By John Fausett
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
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WCM
ALERT
By John Fausett
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
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If you’re tired of hearing about El Niño or La Niña, then this winter season is for you! Sea surface temperatures in the tropical central Pacific Ocean are returning to normal, bringing the first "normal" (La Nada or No-Niño) cool season in years. Unfortunately, normal is often the average of extremes. Indeed, an El Niño or La Niña pattern usually dominates the southwest with not much variability, making a very general long range forecast more reliable. We will probably see temperatures a little cooler than the previous two winters along with more precipitation, simply because those winters were in the La Niña phase which brings New Mexico and west Texas abnormally warm/dry cool seasons. Beyond that, even the experts in long range prediction are not sure what to expect!
Speaking of abnormal, September 2000 brought only a trace of rain to El Paso, with only three other Septembers as dry since records began. To give you an idea of the significance, during the past 40 years September has averaged out as El Paso’s wettest month. The madness didn’t stop there --- mid October through early November brought more thunderstorms than August! See page one for details.
Though it is months away, below is a tentative Skywarn schedule for spotter training in the Spring. The month of March has been targeted as many of our fire department spotters could not attend the sessions last April due to an early fire season. A few changes will be made in the basic/intermediate class, and the advanced class will again be offered according to demand. For the latest schedule, check the spotter page on our web site. This year we will have the services of Joe Rogash, who worked several years at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. He brings much severe weather experience to the spotter’s world, and plans to be heavily involved in the training sessions.