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Volume 3, Issue 3 Special points of interest: Page 1: The October 17, 1999 Winter Storm Page 1: Review of last winter's La Niña Page 2: Climate Outlook for Winter 1999/2000 Page 3: Co-op Corner Page 5: WCM Weather Window Page 6: Winter Weather Quiz Page 7: National Weather Service Staff notes Page 8: Call in Criteria and Answers to the Weather Quiz
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Early Winter Storm Hits Southwest Area in October | |
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Rain, snow, and record cold temperatures invaded the borderland in abrupt fashion this past October. Balmy autumn temperatures in the upper 80's were quickly replaced with afternoon temperatures that struggled to reach the upper 30's over the course of a 2 day period. The combination of a weak subtropical system that was shooting across northern Mexico and an early season backdoor cold front brought unseasonably cool temperatures and precipitation to the area. At the El Paso International Airport, .56" of rain was officially recorded along with a trace of snow which is very unusual for this time of year. The earliest measurable snowfall in recorded history for El Paso occurred on October 28, 1980 when the city received 1.0" of snow over the 24-hour period. This past October's event was the second earliest trace amount of snow reported at the airport. The earliest report of a trace of snowfall was October 15, 1925. Along with the snowfall, both October 17th and 18th saw their previous temperature records fall. The high temperature at the El Paso International Airport on the 17th was 58ºF (equaled just after midnight) and on the high on the 18th reached only 54ºF. Both temperatures broke the old coolest high temperature records for their respective dates by several degree's. (cont. on pg. 3)
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| Review of Last Winters La Niña | ||
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Last winter we reported to you on La Niña and the effects we expected the unusually cold waters in the equatorial Pacific associated with La Niña would have on our weather here in the southwest. Historically, La Niñas bring warmer and drier winters to our area. One recent study by Jim Reynolds, a senior forecaster here at the Santa Teresa office, showed a 58% reduction in El Paso's weather during La Niña winters. (If you'd like to view this study, go to http://www.srh.noaa.gov/elp/papers/elp98-1.html). After reviewing last year's data from 21 co-operative stations located in our region, it appears last year's conditions were very typical for a La Niña year. Of the 21 stations reviewed, the average daily temperature at all 21 stations was significantly warmer than average and rainfall amounts at all 21 stations was well below normal. The results for individual locations can be viewed in a comprehensive table on page 4. |
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Climate Outlook for Winter 1999/2000 | |
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On going La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific are forecast to bring warmer and drier conditions to the southwest from late fall through the early spring. This makes the probability of less-than-normal snowfall at higher elevations likely, according to scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. La Niña conditions developed between May and June 1998, and have persisted since that time. Although this year's La Niña is not of the same strength as last year's, we cannot rule out seeing similarly conditions in the southwest this winter as compared to lasts. The term "La Niña" refers to cooler-than-normal ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas the more familiar El Niño refers to warmer-than-normal ocean waters in these same regions. Both La Niña and El Niño affect the weather patterns across the North Pacific and North America by directly changing the character of the wintertime jet stream, which ultimately controls the weather patterns. In fact, these events impact the location of marine life, prevailing winds, and climate around the globe. The shift from El Niño to La Niña and back again occurs in cycles on time periods of approximately four to seven years like a pool of warm water sloshing back and forth in a huge bathtub. According to the latest analyses and forecasts (as of 11/1/99) by the Climate Prediction Center, La Niña conditions continue to evolve. The Center forecasts weak to moderate La Niña conditions for the remainder of 1999 continuing through the winter months and into the spring. This is consistent with other forecast models being run by research institutions. An important source of uncertainty in outlooks of the upcoming wintertime weather patterns during La Niña is the fact that other atmospheric wind systems which are not linked to La Niña can also significantly affect the jet stream, storm tracks, and weather patterns. Keeping this in mind, and the fact that even in an average year freak storms and odd differences in weather from place to place are normal here in the southwest, there is no guarantee this winter will either be as warm and dry as last year's or continue to be as warm and dry as the fall has been so far this year. For more information on NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and its forecasts, log onto http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. |
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American Meteorological Society |
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The American Meteorological Society currently promotes the development and dissemination of information and education on atmospheric and related oceanic hydrological sciences. Founded in 1919, AMS now has a membership of more than 11,000 professionals, professors, students, and weather enthusiasts. The El Paso - Las Cruces chapter of the AMS was founded in 1957. Currently, the chapter has about 30 dues paying members. The chapter has meetings every month except during its summer break which extends from July through September. The meetings usually last for an hour and feature a guest speaker speaking on a weather related topic. ANYONE with an interest in weather is welcome to join the local chapter. For more information on meeting times and locations, you can visit the local AMS chapter WebPage at: |
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| October 1999 winter storm (cont.) |
Select Observer reports for October 17,1999: Columbus, NM Cloudcroft, NM Elk, NM El Paso, TX (32ENE) |
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Along with the cold temperatures, rain, and snow, the storm was deemed responsible for numerous potholes, downed trees, and downed traffic signals throughout the region. The potholes were primarily associated with the onset of cold weather which causes contractions in the pavement. The downed trees and traffic signals were a direct effect of the strong winds. Although the El Paso International airport reported a peak gust of 36 MPH from the storm, several higher gusts were reported around town. One of our observers, Dr. Sherman of the Crazy Cat mountain area, called in a reported wind gust of 60 MPH at his home associated with the storm. By four o'clock on the 17th, most of the precipitation had ended and skies started to clear. As the sun began to set, the snow covered Franklin Mountains were visible from most of El Paso. Although there was no official report on how much snow fell on Trans Mountain Road, it was significant enough for the highway department to close the road for several hours during the morning of the 17th. The sudden dip in temperatures also spurred a slew of phone calls to the weather office from curious citizens wanting to know if this weather was going to continue. A full winter outlook for the southwest for the duration of the winter can be found in the Climate Outlook related article on page 2.
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We made our Fall trips in September and October of this year and all went very well. It was good to see those of you who were home when we got to your station. We visited 34 Co-op stations during those two months and winterized all of the F&P punch type rain gages. On the 23rd of August we replaced Tom Neely as the observer in Animas with Mr. Jack Lasher. Mr. Neely and his wife were transferred to Arizona.On the first of October KPSA radio station quit being our observer in Alamogordo. On the 2nd of November we moved the Co-op station from their location to the Alamogordo Daily News offices and they became our observer in Alamogordo. We want to thank both Mr. Lasher and the Alamogordo newspaper and welcome them to our family of Co-op weather observers. We still have three extra MMTS systems in our supplies if any of you wish to change from the old thermometers to the digital readout or would like to add temperature to your rain gage readings. Just a reminder, all forms should be mailed to the Santa Teresa address, as soon after the end of the month as possible. Bob Cooper
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WCM Weather Window (Warning Coordination Meteorologist) |
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Hello. My name is John Fausett, the new Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) here at NWSO El Paso. You are probably aware that Jack Mercer returned to Fairbanks, Alaska in August 1998. It wasn't until Saint Patrick's Day that his replacement (me) arrived at this office, with months of work to catch up on. Fortunately, the MIC along with many of the staff performed extra WCM duties to fill in most of the void. However, in playing "catch up" (not to mention the departure of the former newsletter editor) I opted to skip a couple of editions of the Southwest Weather Watch. Indeed, a spotter training season and healthy monsoon have already come and gone, but the newsletter is finally back! If my name appears familiar to some of you, it is because I was a television meteorologist for one of the El Paso stations during the 1980s. I left the market at the end of 1990 for a career in the National Weather Service, a move that I have never regretted. This is my fourth position in the NWS, the one that I hope to retire in. It is truly good to be back in the area, with its friendly people, wide-open southwestern scenery, and an excellent staff to work with. I look forward to meeting many of you someday at one of our spotter training sessions. Spotter training was delayed somewhat this year due to the above, and only six sessions were conducted (all in June). After a dry winter and spring, the thunderstorm season got off to an early start in mid June. This was not the monsoon, but the combination of an unusually late push of moist air from the plains with upper impulses imbedded in southwesterly flow. Typically those impulses would have resulted in mainly "dry" thunderstorms. But with the presence of low level moisture, the storms were quite worthy of late summer standards. Several flash flood events occurred across the area. By early July, the more traditional moisture source of northern Mexico (actually the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical eastern Pacific) was sending water vapor our way. Although the increased humidity level was at times uncomfortable, some of you may have preferred this to the very active Spring windy season of 1999. I have often heard references made to the relatively quiet weather in this part of the country. I worked in Midland, TX for almost 3 years, and yes, the severe weather events there are more serious and far more frequent. I also spent more than 3 years in the Phoenix area, and though it's not like Midland, it has a surprising number of severe downbursts. But I would never call the warm season convection here quiet. A glance at Storm Data publications from over the years reveals that this region, like the desert Southwest in general, can expect flash floods and occasional damaging winds in July, August and early September. A less frequent but perhaps more dangerous situation occurs late in Spring when the dry-line is pushed westward over the mountains under an active polar jet stream. Large hail and (very rarely) weak tornadoes can be added to the mix at such times. Fall can also be threatening when the jet stream brings an impulse over the last of the monsoonal moisture, or when the remnants of tropical cyclones spawn drenching deluges. No, it's not always quiet. Due to remoteness and sparse population, most events go unreported. But each year, at least one community experiences damage. Lordsburg was a target of damaging wind this summer, with several other locations experiencing flash flooding. The Silver City area experienced significant flash flooding in September, and spotter calls were very useful in issuing warnings. Therefore, you the spotter must always be prepared to provide us with timely and crucial information. Our mission to save lives and property cannot be accomplished with improved technology alone. We need your trained eyes! Please review the call-in criteria list on page 8 that are possible during the cool season months. Please use the toll free number for important weather events only. Otherwise you may be preventing legitimate reports from reaching our office, compromising the safety of others. |
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Winter Weather Quiz (Answers and explanations can be found on page 8) |
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1. Where on your body do you lose the most body heat? a. Hands a. The freezing point of water 3. At which of the following temperatures does water spontaneously freeze? a. 18ºF 4. What is the greatest snowfall from a single storm in El Paso? a. 22.4 inches 5. What is the coldest temperature ever recorded in El Paso? a. -8ºF |
6. On average, one inch of rain is equivalent to how many inches of snow? a. 10 inches 7. Which of the following is not affected by wind chill? a. Humans 8. The average high temperature in El Paso for the month of December is ____, while the average high temperature 1500 miles northeast in Duluth Minnesota is ____ during the month of December. a. 70ºF; 40ºF 9. The average annual snowfall in El Paso is ____. a. Only a Trace 10. True or False: It must be 32ºF or Colder in order for it to snow: __________ |
| Meet the Staff | |
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The National Weather Service Office El Paso continues to evolve and change. Besides John Fausett who introduced himself in the WCM Weather Window, the office has gained another new meteorologist. Shawn Rossi, is the newest and youngest member of our staff and was hired as a Meteorologist Intern. Shawn came to us from Tucson, Arizona, where he recently earned his Masters degree in Atmospheric Science from the University of Arizona. Before moving to Tucson, Shawn spent four years at the University of California, Davis. Shawn is originally from the San Francisco Bay Area where he grew up as the youngest of five children. Outside of meteorology, Shawn's interests include following his favorite baseball team, the San Francisco Giants, playing softball, running and working out. The office has also lost three meteorologists to other NWS offices. Vincent Papol, accepted a promotion to Lead Forecaster at the Goodland office in western Kansas. Vinnie was famous here for his analysis of severe weather, and was infamous for his strong New York accent. At last report, Vinnie is enjoying the more-than-occasional severe weather on the High Plains. Carl Wright, a long-time resident of southern New Mexico, returned to his hometown of San Angelo Texas to work as a Journeyman meteorologist, and to be closer to his extended family. Carl was known and well liked here at the office, for his positive outlook on life. "Super, couldn't be better" was always his reply to "How you doing Carl?", even on the midnight shifts. Joe Ramey, lateraled to a Lead Forecaster position at the Grand Junction office in western Colorado. Born in Hobbs, New Mexico and an off and on resident of Las Cruces since 1980, Joe is a graduate of the New Mexico State University. Joe and his 14 year old son Kagan will create a new home with Joe's new wife Ellen Heffernan who is also a forecaster at the Grand Junction office. Ellen has two children: Loren, age 16, and Shaula, age 12. Along with their teenagers, Joe and Ellen will share their home with four cats, eleven bicycles, and twelve pairs of skis. |
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National Weather Service 7950 Airport RoadTelephone: 505-589-4088 Santa Teresa, NM 88008 Fax: 505-589-4026 Home Page: http://nwselp.epcc.edu -Staff-Max Blood, Meteorologist-in-Charge |
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| Val Macblain, Science Operations Officer John Fausett, Warning Coordination Meteorologist Bob Cooper, Data Acquisition Program Manager Hydro-meteorological Technicians: Bill Ash Roger Mead Bruce Bradley Perry Steinman
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Rodney
Heckel, Electronic Systems Administrator John Jossa, Electronic Technician Meteorologists: John Chambers Jim Reynolds Thomas Bird Dave Hefner Shawn Rossi Tim Brice Greg Lundeen John Simensky |
| Call in Criteria….. | ||
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Please Call 1-800-874-6755 if you observe: SNOW.................(desert) begins to accumulate (mountains) greater than 2 inch accumulation FLASH FLOODING.....any potentially hazardous flooding of arroyos or low ly- ing areas HEAVY RAIN...½ inch or more in 30 minutes, or causes significant ponding or flowing water DAMAGING WINDS....airborne debris and/or difficulty in standing BLOWING DUST..........hazardous travel due to reduced visibility HAIL...............................½ inch or larger TORNADO or FUNNEL CLOUD.......report time, location and movement |
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| Answers to the Weather Quiz | ||
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1. b. Your head tends to lose more heat than any other area of the body. So next time you go out in the cold, remember to take a hat along with the gloves. 2. d. 32ºF is both the melting point of ice and the freezing point of water. They are the same. Below 32ºF, any precipitation falling is going to be frozen, most likely in the form of snow. 3. d. Ice always melts at 32ºF, but water does not always freeze at 32ºF. It must freeze onto something. However, at -40ºF, water freezes spontaneously. If you poured a cup of water out the window with the air temperature outside at -40ºF, the water would freeze before it struck the ground. 4. a. Back in 1987, 22.4" of snow fell between the 13th and 14th of December. During the storm, 16" of snow piled up on the ground, which also set the record for the greatest depth of snow on the ground. 5. a. On January 11, 1962, the temperature dropped to a record -8ºF. In contrast, on June 30, 1994, some of you might remember the temperature soaring to a record 114ºF!
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6. a. In most areas of the country, 10 inches of snow is the equivalent of approximately 1 inch of rain. In the southwest, however, where conditions are somewhat drier than the rest of the country, it often takes much more than 10 inches of snow to have the equivalent of 1 inch of liquid precipitation. 7. c. Wind chill is the combination of wind and temperature and is based on the rate of heat loss from exposed skin such as that of a person or animal. As the wind increases, heat is carried away from the body at an accelerated rate, driving the body temperature down. Wind chill has no effect on cars or other objects. 8. c. Be thankful you live in the southwest. While the temperature in December averages what we consider a chilly 56ºF in El Paso, the average high temperature in Duluth, Minnesota is 16ºF. In contrast, the coolest station in the El Paso county warning area, Cloudcroft, averages a balmy 43ºF for a high in the month of December. 9. b. The average annual snowfall in El Paso is 6.6". The maximum seasonal snowfall was 32.5", set during the winter of 1987/1988, and the minimum seasonal snowfall is 0.0" set on numerous occasions. 10. False. It has been know to snow with temperatures in the mid-40's. Temperatures are below 32ºF up in the clouds where the snow is forming, but on the ground the temperature can be much warmer.
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Southwest Weather Watch |
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Editors: John Fausett, Shawn Rossi, and Jim Reynolds Graphics: Tom Bird and Shawn Rossi Authors: Bob Cooper, John Fausett, and Shawn Rossi |
