Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (ac)

906
ACUS03 KWNS 030754
SWODY3
SPC AC 030752

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CST SUN MAR 03 2013

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TN VALLEY TO SERN U.S...

EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS BY 06/12Z.  VERY COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE MAIN JET AXIS AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE
COLD FRONT.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF SWRN KY INTO NRN MS AND STRONG
FORCING SHOULD ENCOURAGE WEAK CONVECTION TO SPREAD/DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 200 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WITH BACK
EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AFTER 06/06Z.

...PACIFIC NW COAST...

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WA/ORE/NRN CA COAST
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  COOLING PROFILES AND FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW
SUGGEST SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL GENERATE OVER THE MORE BUOYANT
MARINE LAYER BEFORE SPREADING INLAND.  ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER LAND.

..DARROW.. 03/03/2013