548 AXUS74 KLUB 242026 DGTLUB TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269- 279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-241930- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 230 PM CST THU JAN 24 2013 ...CONDITIONS HAVE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27 CORRIDOR... SYNOPSIS... THANKS TO A PAIR OF RAINFALL EVENTS...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF LITTLEFIELD REMAIN IN D4 DROUGHT AS DOES SOUTHERN STONEWALL COUNTY. A SERIES OF COOLER AIRMASSES HAS ALSO HELPED TO LIMIT EVAPORATION THUS RETAINING SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A CHANGE TO WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF WORSENING CONDITIONS IN SPITE OF THE RECENT BENEFICIAL MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THUS FAR...FIRE WEATHER THREATS HAVE BEEN LOW THIS YEAR BUT THE PEAK IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY YET TO COME. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS... FIRE WEATHER SEASON TRADITIONALLY STARTS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE FAR FROM THOSE OF 2011...THEY ARE FAR FROM OPTIMAL. OBSERVED FUELS SEEM TO BE SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM THE DROUGHT AND FIRES OF 2011 IN SPITE OF MEAGER RAINFALL. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR REMAINS AT OR ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT PERIOD. SOIL MOISTURE AT SHALLOW LEVELS IS ACCEPTABLE THANKS TO RECENT RAINFALLS...BUT RAPIDLY DRIES WITH DEPTH. THUS...A LITTLE PRECIPITATION COULD HELP SHALLOW ROOTED FUELS TO GREEN UP QUICKLY. LOOKING AT THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX...THE LOWEST VALUES OF 300-400 EXIST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...INCREASING TO THE 500-600 RANGE FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. A SMALL AREA OF 600-700 EXISTS NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER IN BAILEY AND PARMER COUNTIES. ERC FORECAST IS IN THE 0-49 RANGE FOR THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS REGIONS AND 50-74 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. IN SUMMARY...IT IS STILL DRY BUT THE AREA HAS OBSERVED WORSE IN RECENT HISTORY. BURN BANS ARE IN PLACE FOR APPROXIMATELY THREE-QUARTERS OF WEST TEXAS COUNTIES...THOUGH OUTDOOR FIRES ARE NOT RECOMMENDED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE DROUGHT PERSISTS. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS TEND TO BE MINIMAL IN JANUARY BECAUSE MOST OF THE THE CROP LAND IN THE REGION IS IDLE. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH DID OCCUR...WILL PENETRATE THE SOIL TO A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH AND SHOULD PROVE BENEFICIAL. IT DIRECTLY IMPACTS THE LIMITED SPOTTY AREAS OF WINTER WHEAT. IT ALSO IMPROVES SOIL MOISTURE FOR DORMANT GRASSES ON RANCHLAND AND ALSO BENEFITS CROPLAND WHERE THE MOISTURE PENETRATES THE GROUND TO A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH. AS FOR WHICH AREAS RECEIVED THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS WERE ON THE ORDER OF 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS NORTH OF A LINE FROM CROSBYTON TO GUTHRIE. UNFORTUNATELY SOME PARTS OF OUR REGION ONLY RECEIVED MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS...1/2 INCH OR LESS. AS SUCH THEY RECEIVED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVEN SHORT TERM DROUGHT RELIEF AS THAT MOISTURE IS ALMOST IMMEDIATELY LOST TO EVAPORATION ON DRY WINDY DAYS. THE DRIEST AREAS INCLUDED THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS... AND THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. OTHER AREAS LIKE LUBBOCK AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS RECEIVED RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1 INCH. IN THOSE AREAS...THE RAINFALL WAS DEFINITELY VERY WELCOME...BUT THE LONG TERM IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON FUTURE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WINTER AND SPRING. CLIMATE SUMMARY... DECEMBER ENDED ON A WET NOTE AS A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT A SWATH OF RAIN MEASURING AROUND 1/2" ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING OF THE 30TH AND MORNING OF THE 31ST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXTENDED FROM NEAR PLAINS TO LEVELLAND AND CONTINUED NORTHEAST FROM PLAINVIEW TO SILVERTON. AREAS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SWATH...ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS SAW AMOUNTS FROM ONE TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WERE RECEIVED EARLY IN THE MORNING ON THE 31ST WHEN TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER 2012 REMAINED BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA EXPERIENCED REPEATED FRONTAL PASSAGES AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER FROM THE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. JANUARY CONTINUED THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS REMAINED IN THE 30S FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE 4TH. MILDER CONDITIONS INCLUDING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 DEGREES RETURNED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF THE MONTH AS MOISTURE WAS DRAWN NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE 7TH AND MOVED FROM THE BIG BEND NORTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER ON THE 9TH AND 10TH. THE SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL TRACK OF THIS STORM AND THE AVAILABILITY OF DEEP PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES OCCURRED FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. LOCATIONS FURTHER FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM ACROSS THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE SAW TWO DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM NEAR 1/2 TO AN INCH. TEMPERATURES REMAINED JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL ENTIRELY AS RAIN FOR THE EVENT. THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY SAW SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MAKE ITS WAY FROM WESTERN CANADA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS FROM LATE ON THE 12TH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF THE 15TH. THE COLDEST READINGS RECORDED DURING THE PERIOD WERE IN THE 9 TO 12 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE MORNING OF THE 15TH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN FRIONA REACHED 32 DEGREES ON THE AFTERNOON OF 12TH BUT DID NOT RETURN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AGAIN UNTIL 10 AM ON THE 16TH. MILD AIR RETURNED TO THE REGION ON THE 16TH AND CONTINUED FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMED IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A COOL FRONT BROUGHT TEMPORARILY COOLER READINGS ON THE 21ST BUT TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDED INTO THE 60S AGAIN AND CONTINUED WARMING INTO 23RD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 70S. THE WARMEST READING FOR JANUARY WAS 77 DEGREES WHICH OCCURRED AT POST. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE RETURN TO A WARMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REGION IN BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. IN THE NEAR TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT WARMING UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WILL OCCUR BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... AREA RESERVOIRS SHOWED A SLOWER BUT STEADY DECLINE THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY...BUT THEN SHOWED A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT THE SECOND WEEK OF JANUARY AFTER SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LAKE ALAN HENRY RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN AND HAS SHOWN THE MOST IMPROVEMENT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LAKE DEPTH. THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED JANUARY 24TH: RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 4 WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION (FEET) (FEET) CAPACITY MACKENZIE LAKE 3100 3007.4 -0.1 57 8 WHITE RIVER LAKE 2370 2343.2 -0.1 16 5 LAKE ALAN HENRY 2220 2209.8 0.1 67 74 LAKE MEREDITH 2936 2841.6 0.0 28.6 -11 NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON 21 FEBRUARY 2013 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NOAA DROUGHT PAGE: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/ OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST: HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS PRECIPITATION: HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/ USGS: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/ USACE: HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/ CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ USDA: HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/ TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT: HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES... THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100 LUBBOCK TEXAS 79423 PHONE: 806-745-4260 SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV $$ VITALE/LIPE/JURECKA/COBB/DANIEL/ALDRIDGE