836 AXUS74 KLUB 121627 DGTLUB TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269- 279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-261630- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1127 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 ..HEADLINE: DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY UNCHANGED FROM TWO WEEKS AGO... RECENT LIGHT RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO GOING WITH A STRIP OF SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS CENTERED ON FLOYD COUNTY... SYNOPSIS... UNFORTUNATELY THE END OF AUGUST AND EARLY PART OF SEPTEMBER PROVIDED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DROUGHT RELIEF ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS MOST OF THE REGION SAW LITTLE RAINFALL. A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN A FEW VERY LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...HOWEVER COVERAGE WAS TOO SPARSE TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...AND MID TO UPPER 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS. LOWS EXHIBITED A SIMILAR GEOGRAPHIC TREND AND RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 70 FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT OF THIS HOT AND DRY PATTERN...LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS WAS REALIZED FROM AUGUST 29 TO SEPTEMBER 11. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO HELP THE COTTON CROP MATURE WITH MOST OF THE CROP IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION. BOLLS WERE BEING SET ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT SIGNIFICANT WILTING IS BEING NOTICED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. COTTON ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WAS IN CUTOUT WITH MUCH OF THE CROP IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION. SOIL MOISTURE WAS RAPIDLY DROPPING AND EVEN THOUGH PASTURES AND RANGELAND WERE STILL IN GOOD CONDITION...RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED TO MAINTAIN GRAZING. LIVESTOCK REMAINED IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION ACROSS THE REGION. SOME AREAS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WERE PREPARING LAND FOR WINTER WHEAT PLANTING WITH A NEED FOR RAINFALL TO ESTABLISH GOOD SOIL MOISTURE PROFILES. FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS... LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR NORMAL FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WHILE PROFILES REMAIN SLIGHTLY DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS FOR AVAILABLE FUELS REMAINED NEAR OR BELOW LONG-TERM AVERAGES. THE MOST RECENT KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX FROM THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS REMAINS BELOW 500...HOWEVER SOME POCKETS OF 500 TO 600 HAD DEVELOPED OVER FLOYD...MOTLEY...CROSBY...AND TERRY COUNTIES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HAVE REMAINED LOW THANKS TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES AND THE GREEN FUELS. COUNTY BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVEN COUNTIES - CHILDRESS...LAMB... COCHRAN...CROSBY...KING...TERRY...AND GARZA. CLIMATE SUMMARY... LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER HAVE OFFERED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DROUGHT RELIEF ACROSS WEST TEXAS...AS A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS RESULTED IN FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. A FEW VERY LOCALIZED AREAS DID RECEIVE SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN GENERATED BY SPOTTY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. MOST AREAS REMAINED ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AS COVERAGE REMAINED VERY SPARSE EVEN ON THE DAYS WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED. WHILE NOT TYPICALLY AS RAINY AS LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER...SEPTEMBER TYPICALLY IS ONE OF THE RAINIEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR WITH 30 YEAR AVERAGE TOTALS OF 2.51 AND 2.42 INCHES. LIKEWISE...MOST OF THE REGION HAS EXPERIENCED WELL BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM AUGUST 29TH TO SEPTEMBER 11TH. FARTHER WEST...DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN PRODUCED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND EXTREME WEST TEXAS ON THE 11TH OF SEPTEMBER. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS RAIN REMAINED WEST OF THE STATE LINE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN HALF OF PARMER AND BAILEY COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...THE PERSISTENT RIDGE PATTERN RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS HIGHS CONSISTENTLY REACHED 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW COOLER DAYS ON THE 10TH AND 11TH OF SEPTEMBER. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE THIRD WEEK OF SEPTEMBER AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEFORE BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS. THESE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS BEING UP TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WHICH AGREES WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. THE TWO WEEK PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE FORECAST AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DUE TO A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. THE TWO WEEK TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SHOWS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... AREA RESERVOIRS DECLINED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER. THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ON SEPTEMBER 12: RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 2-WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION (FEET) CAPACITY MACKENZIE LAKE 3100 3004.5 -0.4 54 7 WHITE RIVER LAKE 2370 2339.6 -0.8 13 0 LAKE ALAN HENRY 2220 2207.1 -0.4 64 68 NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON SEPTEMBER 26TH OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/ NOAA DROUGHT PAGE: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/ OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST: HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/ NWS PRECIPITATION: HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/ USGS: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/ USACE: HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/ CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ USDA: HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/ TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT: HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES... THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100 LUBBOCK TEXAS 79423 PHONE: 806-745-4260 SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV $$