508 AXUS74 KLUB 261637 DGTLUB TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269- 279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-101645- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1137 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2013 ...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN HAS ALLOWED DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT TO A SMALL PART OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE INADEQUATE RAIN THUS FAR IN SEPTEMBER HAS ACCOUNTED FOR UNCHANGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE... SYNOPSIS... AT FIRST GLANCE IF YOU WERE DRIVING THROUGH THE AREA YOU MIGHT NOT REALIZE THE EXTENT OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT. SUMMER RAINS WERE ENOUGH TO MAKE AREA GRASSES GROW AND IRRIGATED CROPS FILL MANY FIELDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE SURFACE APPEARANCES OUR REGION CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT...PARTICULARLY THE LONG TERM ASPECTS OF DROUGHT. EXAMPLES OF THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CAN BE SEEN AT AREA RESERVOIRS LIKE WHITE RIVER LAKE WHICH SUPPLIES WATER TO 4 SMALLER AREA CITIES. THE LAKE IS AT AN ALL TIME LOW HOLDING ZERO PERCENT OF CONSERVATION CAPACITY. IT HAS NOT SEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT INFLOW THIS YEAR NOR THE PAST 3 YEARS. ANOTHER SMALLER LAKE...LAKE MACKENZIE IS AT A HISTORIC LOW AT ONLY 5.6 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION. RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS HAS BEEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LONGER TERM MEASURES SHOW THAT THE PAST 36 MONTHS HAS BEEN AS DRY OR DRIER THAN ANY OTHER 36 MONTH PERIOD OVER THE LAST 115 YEARS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS CONTRIBUTE TO WHY THE REGION REMAINS IN MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT. CLIMATE SUMMARY... MOST OF THE REGION CONTINUED TO SEE BELOW NORMAL VALUES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER...ALTHOUGH THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS LOOSENED ITS GRIP ON AREA WEATHER. THIS PATTERN SHIFT...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR... ALLOWED AT LEAST A FEW AREAS TO SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...MOSTLY TIED TO A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS. THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BENEFITED MOST FROM THIS RAIN...ALTHOUGH EVEN IN THESE AREAS MOST PLACES BARELY CROSSED THE NORMAL THRESHOLD WITH A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN SCATTERED THROUGHOUT. IN PARTICULAR...CAPROCK CANYONS STATE PARK AND THE IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREA RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ON SEPTEMBER 13TH...WITH TOTALS AS HIGH AS 3.88 INCHES MEASURED WITHIN THE PARK. THESE HIGH TOTALS WERE VERY LOCALIZED...HOWEVER...AND EVEN THOUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS SAW THE MOST RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...WIDESPREAD TOTALS WERE TOO LOW TO IMPACT THE LONG TERM DROUGHT SITUATION. FARTHER WEST ON THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE RAIN SITUATION WAS EVEN MORE GRIM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. A FEW AREAS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SAW RAIN TOTALS CLIMB TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS...HOWEVER...ALL OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS HAVE HELPED CONTRIBUTE TO CROP MATURATION AFTER BENEFICIAL RAINS IN AUGUST. CROPS THEREFORE VISUALLY APPEAR MUCH HEALTHIER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS. HOWEVER...SEPTEMBER ITSELF HAS BEEN RATHER DRY ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME AFTERNOON WILTING OF COTTON CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE. COTTON WAS PROGRESSING DECENTLY BUT STILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WARM DAYS TO MATURE THE CROP PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SORGHUM AND CORN WAS IN FAIR TO GOOD SHAPE WITH PEANUT PROSPECTS LOOKING GOOD. WINTER WHEAT PLANTING HAS PROCEEDED WELL IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SOME MOISTURE DURING THE LATE SUMMER. COTTON DEFOILIAGE / HARVEST WILL INITIATE DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS WITH SOME BOLLS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BEGINNING TO OPEN. LIVESTOCK WERE LARGELY IN GOOD CONDITION THOUGH RANGELAND GRASSES RANGED FROM POOR TO GOOD CONDITION WITH SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING NECESSARY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS... PLENTY OF GREEN GRASSES AND SHRUBS REMAIN OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS... WHILE NOTABLE DRYING AND CURING OF THE FINE FUELS ON THE CAPROCK HAS BEEN OCCURRING SINCE MID SEPTEMBER. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS GENERALLY HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD BE POISED TO INCREASE INTO MORE HAZARDOUS LEVELS WITH EXTENSION OF THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN. THE LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX RELEASED FROM THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WAS REFLECTING THE RECENT PRECIPITATION PATTERN...WITH LEVELS AS LOW AS 100 TO 300 ACROSS THE WETTER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND 400 TO 600 ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH HAS NOT HAD MUCH RECENT RAIN. THIS INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD WOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS ALTHOUGH FUEL LOADS WERE ONLY MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. EARLY FALL IS A TRANSITION FROM THE RELIABLE MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS OF SUMMER...TOWARD MORE FREQUENT DRY SPELLS AND INCREASING WIND. FULL CURING OF FUELS TYPICALLY DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE FIRST FALL FREEZES...ALTHOUGH EARLY DRYING OF GRASSES COULD SIGNAL PREMATURE CURING AND AN ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK ONCE STRONG WINDS DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...LIGHTNING STARTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FALL. COUNTY BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES...INCLUDING CHILDRESS...KING...CROSBY...GARZA...LAMB... TERRY...AND COCHRAN. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE FORMS AND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST...A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES ON SATURDAY...AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK IN OCTOBER IS ANTICIPATED WITH UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK WILL BRIEFLY LOWER THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FIRST WEEK IN OCTOBER. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... AREA RESERVOIRS DECLINED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER. THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ON SEPTEMBER 26: RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 2-WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION (FEET) CAPACITY MACKENZIE LAKE 3100 3004.4 -0.1 54 6 WHITE RIVER LAKE 2370 2339.3 -0.3 12 0 LAKE ALAN HENRY 2220 2206.6 -0.5 64 67 NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON OCTOBER 10 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/ NOAA DROUGHT PAGE: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/ OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST: HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/ NWS PRECIPITATION: HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/ USGS: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/ USACE: HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/ CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ USDA: HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/ TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT: HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES... THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100 LUBBOCK TEXAS 79423 PHONE: 806-745-4260 SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV $$