235
ACUS03 KWNS 030641
SWODY3
SPC AC 030640

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY INTO LOWER MI...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN INTO THE DAY 3 PERIOD...AND
WILL PRECLUDE ANY SLIGHT RISK AREAS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT MUCH QUICKER THAN
THE GFS OR ECMWF WHICH SHIFT THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EWD.

THE SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN WI
INTO WRN IL AT 00Z. IF THIS SOLUTION HOLDS...A SQUALL LINE COULD
INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
OVER WI...IL...AND SERN MO. DEEP LAYER FLOW WOULD BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD IMPLY A FEW NNEWD MOVING LEWPS/BOWS.

NAM/SREF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS ERN
IL...IND...LOWER MI...AND PERHAPS WRN OH. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD
ALSO SUGGEST A MORE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE INSTABILITY
FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

...CNTRL GULF COAST/FL PANHANDLE...
NHC FORECASTS INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF LA/AL/MS/FL. WHILE PREDICTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
TOO LOW FOR ANY SEVERE AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCIPIENT
CYCLONE...A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP SHOULD SHEAR
FIELDS BECOME FAVORABLE AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

..JEWELL.. 10/03/2013