000 NOUS42 KTAE 151047 PNSTAE ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-220000- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 530 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2008 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORMAL TO ABNORMALLY DRY OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... ...NORMAL CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SYNOPSIS... MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WAS DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL/SOUTHERN JET STREAM. GULF MOISTURE AND PERIODIC GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. A RATHER POTENT LOW AND COLD FRONT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA DURING JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1. FIVE DAYS LATER...ANOTHER SYSTEM GENERATED 0.25-0.75 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE LAST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COLD FRONTS BROUGHT MORE UNIFORM 0.25-0.50 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION ON FEBRUARY 12-13. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 14 2008 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE SHOWN FOR THE PERIOD DECEMBER 1 2007 THROUGH FEBRUARY 14 2008. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 4.18 7.57 -3.39 55 SINCE DECEMBER 1 7.14 11.67 -4.53 61 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 4.43 6.74 -2.31 66 SINCE DECEMBER 1 5.44 10.25 -4.81 53 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 4.62 8.05 -3.43 58 SINCE DECEMBER 1 7.56 12.06 -4.50 63 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 7.40 8.50 -1.10 87 SINCE DECEMBER 1 12.31 12.36 -0.05 99 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 3.09 6.19 -3.10 50 SINCE DECEMBER 1 6.58 9.46 -2.88 70 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 8.63 9.15 -0.52 94 SINCE DECEMBER 1 18.39 13.44 4.95 137 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 5.25 8.34 -3.09 63 SINCE DECEMBER 1 10.15 12.26 -2.11 83 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 5.07 8.55 -3.48 59 SINCE DECEMBER 1 11.03 12.35 -1.32 89 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1 CAUSED 8-12 FOOT RISES ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVER BASINS. AT NEWTON...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER CRESTED A HALF FOOT BELOW THE 14 FOOT ACTION STAGE ON FEBRUARY 1. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR GENEVA CRESTED 0.4 FEET BELOW THE 18 FOOT ACTION STAGE ON FEBRUARY 4. IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE KINCHAFOONEE CREEK NEAR PRESTON CRESTED A FOOT ABOVE THE 6 FOOT ACTION STAGE ON FEBRUARY 2...AND THE KINCHAFOONEE CREEK NEAR DAWSON CRESTED 0.4 FEET BELOW THE 10 FOOT ACTION STAGE ON FEBRUARY 3. ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS WERE OBSERVED ON THE MUCKALEE AND SPRING CREEKS...AND OCHLOCKONEE AND FLINT RIVER BASINS. FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AT THE END OF LAST MONTH GENERATED 2-6 FT RISES ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AND SHOAL RIVERS. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT CARYVILLE CRESTED AT 0.6 FEET ABOVE THE 12 FOOT FLOOD STAGE ON FEBRUARY 5...WHICH CAUSED MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING. THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR MOSSY HEAD CRESTED 0.2 FEET ABOVE THE 10 FOOT ACTION STAGE ON FEBRUARY 1. ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS WERE OBSERVED ON THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN. WHILE RECENT RAINS INCREASED FLOWS SLIGHTLY ON THE SUWANNEE RIVER...MOST LOCATIONS REPORTED BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE FLOWS. LAKE LEVELS REMAINED BELOW NORMAL BUT INCREASED AN AVERAGE OF A QUARTER FOOT LAST MONTH. A MONTHLY RECORD LOW WAS OBSERVED AT THE ECONFINA RIVER NEAR PERRY. LEVELS AT THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER NEAR PINETTA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER AT BRANFORD INCREASED BY 2.5 FEET. FLOWS IN THE UPPER SUWANNEE RIVER WERE BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE...THE MIDDLE SUWANNEE RIVER BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 24TH PERCENTILE...AND LOWER SUWANNEE...FENHOLLOWAY...ECONFINA AND STEINHATCHEE RIVERS WERE BELOW THE 5TH PERCENTILE. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE...PERIODIC RAINS THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND SEASONAL REDUCTION IN WATER USAGE STABILIZED OR INCREASED GROUND WATER LEVELS IN MOST AREAS. THE SAND-AND-GRAVEL AQUIFER AND THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER LEVELS WERE GENERALLY ONE TO THREE FEET ABOVE THE RECORD LOW LEVELS OBSERVED DURING THE 2000-2002 PERIOD. ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS RECHARGED SLIGHTLY FROM THE RECENT RAINS. MOST MONITORING WELLS REMAINED BELOW THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER TABLES. THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTED THAT GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED LOW TO VERY LOW IN JANUARY. EIGHTY-TWO PERCENT OF THE MONITORED WELLS WERE BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE AND 51 PERCENT WERE BELOW THE 2ND PERCENTILE. FORTY-FIVE WELLS SET NEW JANUARY LOWS AND FIVE SET HISTORIC LOWS. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES/FIRE DANGER (KBDI/FD) OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RANGED FROM 0-100/VERY LOW. FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN PANHANDLE ACROSS THE BIG BEND...KBDI/FD VALUES RANGED FROM 100-400/LOW-MODERATE. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...HAY SUPPLY WAS LOW IN THE PANHANDLE...HOWEVER PLANTED WINTER WHEAT WAS IN GOOD CONDITION. SURFACE MOISTURE WAS GOOD BUT SUBSURFACE MOISTURE WAS STILL DEFICIENT. PASTURE CONDITION WAS VERY POOR TO GOOD WITH MOST IN POOR CONDITION DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND DROUGHT. THE CONDITION OF LIVESTOCK WAS VERY POOR TO GOOD WITH MOST IN FAIR CONDITION. SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SPORADIC RAINFALL PROVIDED FAVORABLE WATER GRAZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE AND HAY SUPPLIES. THE CONDITION OF LIVESTOCK WAS FAIR TO GOOD. SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SCATTERED RAINS PROVIDED TEMPORARY DROUGHT RELIEF...AND IMPROVED THE CONDITION OF SMALL GRAINS. DRY PONDS WERE BEGINNING TO FILL UP. THE RECENT COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWED THE WHEAT GROWTH. FARMERS CONTINUED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR SPRING PLANTING AND WINTER WHEAT SIDEDRESSING. PASTURE CONDITION WAS FAIR TO GOOD. TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS ADEQUATE. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE TWO WATER SHORTAGE ORDER REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. THIS ORDER INCLUDES RESTRICTIONS...AND SOME EXEMPTIONS...FOR ALL WATER-USE CATEGORIES INCLUDING RESIDENTIAL...COMMERCIAL...INDUSTRIAL AND AGRICULTURAL. MANDATORY WATER-USE RESTRICTIONS WILL TAKE EFFECT ON APRIL 7 2008. THE DISTRICT CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE EXTREMELY LOW GROUNDWATER LEVELS AND A GREATER THAN 15-INCH ANNUAL RAINFALL DEFICIT. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED FEBRUARY 14 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 20-24 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED FEBRUARY 14 FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 22-28 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ABOVE NORMAL OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS INDICATE THE LA NINA CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WERE GREATER THAN 2 DEGREES CELSIUS BELOW AVERAGE. TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING SPRING...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND INTO THE SUMMER. TYPICALLY...LA NINA BRINGS A WARMER AND DRIER COOL SEASON TO THE REGION. THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER AND INTO THE SPRING MONTHS. WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PREDICTED...MOISTURE RECHARGE OF GROUND WATER...SOILS...PONDS AND RESERVOIRS WILL BE LIMITED. GROWERS WHO PLAN TO PLANT WINTER FORAGE AND DO NOT HAVE IRRIGATION CAPABILITY ARE AT RISK OF BEING SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THE DROUGHT. ALSO...THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING WILDFIRE SEASON. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY...AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI