000 NOUS42 KTAE 131129 PNSTAE ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-210000- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 600 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2008 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES FROM A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...NORMAL TO ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INTO THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... FROM DECEMBER 29-31...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. AMOUNTS DURING THAT PERIOD VARIED FROM THREE TO FIVE INCHES...WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING BETWEEN SIX AND NINE INCHES. UNFORTUNATELY... AREAS TO THE EAST RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS DOMINATED THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JANUARY...WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. THEN THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTED...WHICH ALLOWED A RAPID WARMUP WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ON JANUARY 11-12 ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WERE QUITE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH TO AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES DUE TO ECHO TRAINING AS THE FRONT SLOWED OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 31 2007 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 44.47 63.21 -18.74 70 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 37.26 56.51 -19.25 66 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 44.01 64.76 -20.75 68 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 40.31 58.24 -17.93 69 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 30.00 58.18 -28.18 52 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 63.44 58.98 4.46 108 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 37.51 52.88 -15.37 71 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 40.84 54.40 -13.56 75 THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH JANUARY 11 2008 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE SHOWN FOR THE PERIOD DECEMBER 1 2007 THROUGH JANUARY 11 2008. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 0.14 1.83 -1.69 8 SINCE DECEMBER 1 3.10 5.93 -2.83 52 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 0.05 1.68 -1.63 3 SINCE DECEMBER 1 1.06 5.19 -4.13 20 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 0.00 1.96 -1.96 0 SINCE DECEMBER 1 2.94 6.02 -3.08 49 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 0.47 2.01 -1.54 23 SINCE DECEMBER 1 5.38 5.87 -0.49 92 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 0.24 1.51 -1.27 16 SINCE DECEMBER 1 3.73 4.78 -1.05 78 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 0.84 2.12 -1.28 40 SINCE DECEMBER 1 10.60 6.41 4.19 166 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 0.02 1.96 -1.94 1 SINCE DECEMBER 1 4.92 5.88 -0.96 84 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 0.23 2.03 -1.80 11 SINCE DECEMBER 1 6.19 5.83 0.36 106 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE LATE DECEMBER RAINS CAUSED RISES OF 5 TO 15 FT ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE-PEA RIVER BASINS. AT GENEVA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER CRESTED AT 15 FEET (FLOOD STAGE 18 FT) ON JANUARY 1. IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...ON THE FLINT RIVER BASIN...PRESTON ON THE KINCHAFOONEE CREEK APPROACHED BUT REMAINED BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DOWNSTREAM...BOTH THE MUCKALEE AND KINCHAFOONEE CREEKS EXPERIENCED 10 FT RISES. THE KINCHAFOONEE CREEK NEAR DAWSON CRESTED AT 12.7 FT (FLOOD STAGE 13 FT) ON JANUARY 2. MINOR RISES WERE OBSERVED ON THE FLINT RIVER AT ALBANY ON JANUARY 3...BUT FLOWS THERE WERE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE HEAVY RAINS DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER CAUSED SHARP RISES ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT PITTMAN AND BELLWOOD...AND THE CHIPOLA RIVER AT ALTHA...CARYVILLE AND MARIANNA. AT CARYVILLE...THE RIVER CRESTED AT 12.05 FT (FLOOD STAGE 12 FT) ON JANUARY 3. AT MARIANNA...THE RIVER CRESTED AT 13.51 FT (FLOOD STAGE 15 FT) ON JANUARY 3. FLORIDA BIG BEND...BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS PERSISTED. ON JANUARY 8...THE ST MARKS RIVER BELOW ST MARKS RISE IN LEON COUNTY SET A NEW RECORD LOW FLOW FOR THE DAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE FLOW IS FROM GROUND WATER CONTRIBUTION AT ST MARKS RISE DURING MODERATE TO LOW FLOW PERIODS. FLOWS ON THE SUWANNEE RIVER REMAINED EXTREMELY LOW...WITH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUWANNEE AT OR NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTED THAT THE ECONFINA RIVER NEAR PERRY AND AUCILLA RIVER AT LAMONT REMAINED DRY. FLOWS ON THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER NEAR PINETTA WERE BELOW AVERAGE. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE...RECENT RAINFALL AND SEASONAL REDUCTION IN WATER USAGE STABILIZED OR INCREASED GROUND WATER LEVELS IN MOST AREAS. DURING THE PAST MONTH GROUND WATER LEVELS FOR SOME WELLS ROSE BY ONE TO TWO FEET. THE SAND-AND-GRAVEL AQUIFER AND THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER LEVELS WERE GENERALLY ONE TO THREE FEET ABOVE THE RECORD LOW LEVELS OBSERVED DURING THE 2000-2002 PERIOD. ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...GROUND WATER LEVELS RECHARGED SLIGHTLY FROM THE RECENT RAINS. IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED LOW TO VERY LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS REMAINED WELL BELOW THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER TABLES. THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTED THAT GROUND WATER LEVELS WERE EXTREMELY LOW...AND DECREASED BY AN AVERAGE OF 0.25 FT LAST MONTH. EIGHTY-FIVE PERCENT OF THE MONITORED WELLS WERE BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE...AND 52 PERCENT WERE BELOW THE 2ND PERCENTILE. FORTY-NINE WELLS SET NEW DECEMBER LOWS...AND 17 WELLS SET NEW HISTORIC LOWS. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES/FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA RANGED FROM 200-300/LOW...100-200/LOW IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND FROM 100-300/LOW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 300-450/LOW-MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOIL MOISTURE WAS MOSTLY SHORT TO ADEQUATE IN THE PANHANDLE...AND SHORT TO VERY SHORT ACROSS THE BIG BEND. FREEZING TEMPERATURES AFTER NEW YEARS DAY DAMAGED SMALL GRAIN FORAGE IN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONTINUED TO LIMIT FORAGE GROWTH. PASTURE RANGED FROM VERY POOR TO GOOD. RANCHERS ARE BEGINNING THE COLD SEASON WITH LIMITED HAY STOCKS AND POOR WINTER GRAZING. SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH RAINFALL LAST MONTH PROVIDED FAVORABLE WATER GRAZING ACROSS MUCH OF AREA...AND IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE. HAY SUPPLIES REMAINED TIGHT. HOWEVER...MOST LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS FELT THEY HAD AMPLE FEEDSTUFFS TO MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT HERD SIZES...AND CEASED SELLING THEIR CATTLE. SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FELL DURING THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER. CROP CONDITIONS REMAINED STABLE LAST MONTH. THE RAINS HELPED WHEAT STANDS EMERGE AND SPURRED WINTER GRAZING GROWTH. WINTER WHEAT THAT EMERGED WAS PROGRESSING WELL. FARMERS IRRIGATED REGULARLY TO ALLEVIATE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. PASTURES WERE GENERALLY IN POOR TO VERY POOR CONDITION. MOST STOCK PONDS WERE LOW...AND SOME HAD DRIED UP. AFFECTED PRODUCERS SOUGHT ALTERNATIVE WATER SOURCES. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE TWO WATER SHORTAGE ORDER HAS BEEN DECLARED BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...AND SUPERSEDES THE PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY ISSUED ON NOVEMBER 14 2006. THIS ORDER INCLUDES RESTRICTIONS...AND SOME EXEMPTIONS...FOR ALL WATER-USE CATEGORIES INCLUDING RESIDENTIAL...COMMERCIAL...INDUSTRIAL AND AGRICULTURAL. MANDATORY WATER-USE RESTRICTIONS WILL TAKE EFFECT ON APRIL 7 2008. THE DISTRICT CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE EXTREMELY LOW GROUNDWATER LEVELS AND A 15-INCH ANNUAL RAINFALL DEFICIT. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED JANUARY 12 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY 18-22 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NORTHWEST AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED JANUARY 12 FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY 20-26 CALLS FOR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NORTHWEST AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY THROUGH MARCH BOTH CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE DATE LINE TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE LA NINA WILL CONTINUE INTO SPRING 2008. OVER HALF OF THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA THROUGH THE FEBRUARY-APRIL PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. TYPICALLY...LA NINA BRINGS A WARMER AND DRIER COOL SEASON TO THE REGION. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WINTER AND SPRING MONTHS. WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS...MOISTURE RECHARGE OF GROUND WATER...SOILS...PONDS AND RESERVOIRS WILL BE LIMITED. GROWERS WHO PLAN TO PLANT WINTER FORAGE AND DO NOT HAVE IRRIGATION CAPABILITY ARE AT RISK OF BEING SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THE WINTER DROUGHT. ALSO...THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING WILDFIRE SEASON. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY...AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI