000 FLUS42 KTAE 011059 HWOTAE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 536 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2006 ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750- 755-770-775-011500- BAKER GA-BAY FL-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA- CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA- DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-FRANKLIN FL- GADSDEN FL-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-GULF FL-HENRY AL-HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL- INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL- LANIER GA-LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA- MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA- THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-WORTH GA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...ADEL...ALBANY...APALACHICOLA... ASHBURN...BAINBRIDGE...BLAKELY...BLOUNTSTOWN...BONIFAY...CAIRO... CALLAWAY...CAMILLA...CARRABELLE...CHIPLEY...COLQUITT...COTTONWOOD... CRAWFORDVILLE...CROSS CITY...CUTHBERT...DALEVILLE...DAWSON... DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...DONALSONVILLE...DOWNTOWN DOTHAN...ELBA... ENTERPRISE...FITZGERALD...FORT GAINES...FORT RUCKER...GENEVA... GEORGETOWN...HEADLAND...LAKELAND...LEESBURG...MADISON...MARIANNA... MAYO...MONTICELLO...MORGAN...MOULTRIE...NASHVILLE...NEWTON... OCILLA...OZARK...PANAMA CITY...PANAMA CITY BEACH...PELHAM...PERRY... PORT ST. JOE...PUTNEY...QUITMAN...SANTA ROSA BEACH...ST. MARKS... STEINHATCHEE...SYLVESTER...TALLAHASSEE...THOMASVILLE...TIFTON... VALDOSTA AND VERNON 536 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2006 THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MONDAY... .DAY ONE... A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT (10 AM CDT). THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...WHERE THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. THE SEVERE THREAT AREA WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. RESIDENTS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE VERY COLD BEHIND THIS FRONT AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE DEEP SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. IT IS STILL EARLY...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS SEASON SO FAR...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS TODAY...AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS. $$ FOURNIER