000 FGUS72 KTAE 292303 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-140000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 600 PM EST FRI DEC 29 2006 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...MODERATE DROUGHT OVER EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INCLUDING THE ADJACENT SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE CENTRAL BIG BEND. ...ABNORMALLY DRY...BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... SYNOPSIS... DRY HIGH PRESSURE GAVE WAY TO WET WINTER STORM ENHANCED BY EL NINO OVER CHRISTMAS. THE STORM BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. MUCH OF THE RAIN FELL IN A BURST BETWEEN 3AM AND 4AM CHRISTMAS MORNING ACROSS LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES IN NORTH FLORIDA. RADAR STORM TOTALS RANGED BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MOST OF LEON COUNTY AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER MOST OF WAKULLA COUNTY. 1 TO 2 INCHES WAS COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THE HEAVY RAIN OVER WAKULLA COUNTY WHICH IS CURRENTLY LISTED IN D1 MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WENT DIRECTLY INTO SOILS AND INTO THE AQUIFER WITHOUT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAL OR SMALL CREEK AND STREAM RISES. ONLY THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER RESPONDED A SHARP BUT MUTED 8 FT RISE. RAIN GAGE STORM TOTALS FOR THE CHRISTMAS STORM FROM OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND USGS SITES, COOPERATIVE AND LOCAL OBSERVERS...THE LEON COUNTY CAPITAL AREA FLOOD WARNING NETWORK AND WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE RAIN GAGES ARE PROVIDED BELOW... CHRISTMAS STORM TOTALS FROM THE NWS FLORIDA STATE UNIV,FL 5.80 TALLAHASSEE AP,FL 5.58 APALACHICOLA,FL 4.58 PANAMA CITY AP,FL 0.72 MARIANNA,FL 0.66 DE FUNIAK SPRINGS,FL 0.51 PERRY,FL 0.81 ALBANY,GA 1.30 VALDOSTA,GA 1.26 DOTHAN,AL 2.05 COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS 8AM READINGS ON 25 DEC FLORIDA....................... CHIPLEY,FL 1.81 DOLING PARK,FL 2.50 NEW HOPE,FL 1.56 GEORGIA....................... BLAKELY,GA 1.16 CAMILLA,GA 1.22 CRISP CTY PWR DAM,GA 1.33 CUTHBERT,GA 1.98 DONALSONVILLE,GA 0.80 FORT GAINES,GA 1.98 GEORGETOWN,GA 1.50 LEESBURG,GA 1.60 MOULTRIE 2 N,GA 3.12 QUITMAN,GA 0.80 ALABAMA....................... ENTERPRISE,AL 0.80 GENEVA,AL 1.57 LEON COUNTY CAPITAL AREA FLOOD NETWORK (CAFWN) 24 HR REPORTS AS OF 4PM 25 DEC....... FOSHALEE SLOUGH 3.90 LAKE IAMONIA OUTFALL 3.12 BRADFORDVILLE 4.68 TUCK SITE 3.67 FOREST MEADOWS 3.64 CHRISTIAN HERITAGE 3.34 HERRON STEEL 3.38 US27 LANDFILL 3.24 MUNSON SLOUGH 4.77 US FOREST SERVICE 3.83 AMES SINK 4.09 OLD PLANK RD 3.60 LOCAL UNOFFICIAL OBSERVER READINGS AS OF 10AM 25 DEC.................... TALLAHASSEE KILLEARN ESTATES 4.25 TALLAHASSEE MALL 5.10 TALLAHASSEE HERMITAGE BLVD 5.25 WAKULLA 4.50 DOG ISLAND 4.50 ...FINAL YEAR END RAINFALL TOTALS FOR STATIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE ISSUED AFTER THE FIRST OF THE YEAR... HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... AREA RIVERS RESPONDED WITH SHARP BUT VERY MUTED RISES TO THE RAINFALL. ALL REMAINED WELL BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE FLOOD STAGES. HOWEVER...STREAM FLOWS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND ARE EXPERIENCING SOME GOOD RUNOFF FROM THE CHRISTMAS STORM WITH LEVELS NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. ONLY THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND THE SUWANNEE DRAINAGE MISSED THE RAIN EVENT AND CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR OR BELOW THE DAILY 10 PERCENTILE LEVEL. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS...OVERALL IMPROVING... ...NORTH FLORIDA...GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN ABOUT 2 FEET ACROSS WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND HAVE STOPPED RECEDING IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...RECORDED VERY SIGNIFICANT GROUND WATER RISES. GROUND WATER LEVELS ROSE 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE FLINT RIVER AND THE CHATTAHOCHEE RIVER INCLUDING THE SPRING CREEK BASIN IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA SINCE THE CHRISTMAS STORM. THE EARLY COUNTY USGS GROUND WATER LEVELS ROSE 8 FEET. ...FLINT RIVER BASIN... IN DOUGHERTY COUNTY AND AREAS EAST OF THE FLINT RIVER IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ONLY ROSE 1/2 TO 2 FEET. ...SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS ROSE 4 FEET IN LOWNDES COUNTY IN THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER BASIN. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...OVERALL IMPROVING KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES/FIRE DANGER RATINGS HAVE DROPPED AND NOW RANGE BETWEEN 300-400/LOW-MODERATE OVER THE EAST FLORIDA BIG BEND AND BELOW 200 OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...OVERALL IMPROVING THE FLORIDA WEATHER CROP REPORT ISSUED 24 DEC 2006 SHOWED IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR FIELD CROPS. PASTURE LAND HOWEVER WAS STRESSED AND FARMERS WERE FEEDING CATTLE HAY. THE RECENT RAINS ON CHRISTMAS ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A WEATHER PATTERN THAT FEATURES MORE FREQUENT RAIN EVENTS IN THE SHORT TERM TO HELP THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. AN UPDATE ON AGRICULTURE WILL BE PROVIDED IN JANUARY. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST OUTLOOK ISSUED 29 DECEMBER SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS. WINTER AND SPRING RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL PEAK DURING THE DECEMBER 2006-FEBRUARY 2007 PERIOD...THEN WEAKEN DURING THE MARCH-MAY 2007 PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS EL NINO EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERY STRONG EVENT OF 1997-1998. DURING EL NINO EVENTS...THE JET STREAM IS STRONGER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND OFTEN RESULTS IN WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST. THE CPC PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FROM JANUARY THROUGH MARCH 2007 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD IMPROVE THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ LANIER