000 FGUS72 KTAE 252042 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-020000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 340 PM EDT TUE DEC 25 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... ...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES BORDERING FLORIDA... ...NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... THE WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSISTED INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF DECEMBER DUE TO A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STAGES AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE THEN GAVE WAY TO A VIGOROUS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION ON DECEMBER 15-16. TWO TO FIVE INCHES FELL IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. TO THE SOUTHEAST...AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED UNTIL DECEMBER 20-21 WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEPOSITED ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. OUTSIDE THESE AREAS...AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH WERE COMMON. FINALLY...A WEAK BUT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM PRODUCED A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL ON DECEMBER 23. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 24 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE SHOWN FOR THE PERIOD DECEMBER 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 24. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 44.14 62.19 -18.05 71 SINCE DECEMBER 1 2.63 3.08 -0.45 85 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 37.19 55.16 -18.42 67 SINCE DECEMBER 1 0.98 2.61 -1.63 38 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 43.23 63.73 -20.50 68 SINCE DECEMBER 1 2.51 3.03 -0.52 83 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 38.35 57.21 -18.86 67 SINCE DECEMBER 1 2.97 2.83 0.14 105 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 29.62 57.62 -28.00 51 SINCE DECEMBER 1 3.11 2.40 0.71 130 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 59.66 58.00 1.66 103 SINCE DECEMBER 1 6.48 3.31 3.17 196 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 34.75 51.93 -17.18 67 SINCE DECEMBER 1 2.21 2.97 -0.76 74 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 37.60 52.37 -14.77 72 SINCE DECEMBER 1 2.72 2.77 -0.05 98 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA RESPONDED ABRUPTLY FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS WITH THREE TO SEVEN FOOT RISES ON DECEMBER 17-18...INCLUDING THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR GENEVA...NEWTON AND BELLWOOD. BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS PERSISTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...WITH BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL FLOWS IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. FLORIDA PANHANDLE...LEVELS AND FLOWS FOR MOST MAJOR RIVERS WERE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL BUT ABOVE THE LEVELS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS YEAR. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE SHOAL RIVER AT MOSSY HEAD WHERE UPSTREAM RAINS CAUSED THE RIVER TO CREST AT 12.2 FT (FLOOD STAGE 14 FT) ON DECEMBER 21. THE FLOW ON THE APALACHICOLA RIVER REMAINED WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ESTABLISHED A NEW DAILY LOW FOR DECEMBER 10 OF 4760 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND. THE WATERSHED FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND THIS REGION HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING HISTORIC DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND HSA NOT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS. FLORIDA BIG BEND...BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS PERSISTED. DESPITE RECENT RAINS...FLOWS ON THE SUWANNEE RIVER HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECLINING...WITH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUWANNEE AT OR NEAR EXTREME LOWS. THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTED THAT THE ECONFINA RIVER NEAR PERRY REMAINED DRY. THE AUCILLA RIVER AT LAMONT WAS NOT FLOWING. LAKE LEVELS REMAINED STABLE...FALLING BY AN AVERAGE OF ONE INCH. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE...RECENT RAINFALL STABILIZED THE GROUND WATER LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...BUT GENERALLY AQUIFER LEVELS MAINTAINED A STEADY FALL. THE SAND-AND-GRAVEL AQUIFER LEVELS WERE WITHIN TWO FEET OF THE RECORD LOW LEVELS OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD 2000-2002. THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER REMAINS AT OR NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED LOW TO VERY LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA REMAINED WELL BELOW THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER TABLES. THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTED THAT GROUND WATER LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT REMAINED BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE...WITH 75 PERCENT OF THE MONITORING WELLS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. MANY OF THOSE WELLS WERE AT OR NEAR THEIR MONTHLY RECORD LOWS. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI)/FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA FELL FROM 450-550/MODERATE-HIGH BEFORE DECEMBER 15...TO 300-400/MODERATE AFTER. LIKEWISE...KBDI/FIRE DANGER FELL FROM 200-400/LOW-MODERATE OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BEFORE DECEMBER 15...TO 100-300/LOW AFTER. FINALLY...KBDI/FIRE DANGER VALUES RANGED FROM 300-450/LOW-MODERATE ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM SHORT TO ADEQUATE IN THE PANHANDLE TO SHORT TO VERY SHORT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG BEND. THE LAST OF THE COTTON CROP WAS HARVESTED IN WASHINGTON COUNTY. PASTURE WAS RATED VERY POOR TO GOOD...WITH MOST IN FAIR CONDITION. THERE WAS LITTLE FORAGE GROWTH DUE TO DROUGHT AND SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES. STOCK POND WATER LEVELS REMAINED LOW. THE CONDITION OF CATTLE WAS POOR TO FAIR. SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE HEAVY RAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH RECHARGED TOP SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS...HOWEVER THE SUB SOIL MOISTURE STILL REMAINED SHORT TO VERY SHORT. PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY POOR. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS CONTINUED TO FEED HAY DUE TO THE LACK OF AVAILABLE WINTER FORAGE. SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM SHORT TO VERY SHORT...DESPITE THE WELCOME RAINS THIS MONTH. THIS YEAR'S PECAN HARVEST WAS RECENTLY COMPLETED. THE GENERALLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO PLAQUE LIVESTOCK AND SMALL GRAIN PRODUCERS. MOST GROWERS WERE ANXIOUSLY AWAITING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL BEFORE PLANTING THEIR SMALL GRAINS. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. MOST OF THE DISTRICT IS EXPERIENCING EXTREMELY LOW SURFACE AND GROUND WATER LEVELS...AND A LARGE ANNUAL RAINFALL DEFICIT. VOLUNTARY WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE RECOMMENDED. THERE ARE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED DECEMBER 24 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED DECEMBER 24 FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY 1-7 CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY PREDICTS A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE DATE LINE TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE LA NINA WILL CONTINUE INTO SPRING 2008. OVER HALF OF THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA THROUGH FEBRUARY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. TYPICALLY...LA NINA BRINGS A WARMER AND DRIER COOL SEASON TO THE REGION. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WINTER AND SPRING MONTHS. WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS...MOISTURE RECHARGE OF GROUND WATER...SOILS...PONDS AND RESERVOIRS WILL BE LIMITED. GROWERS WHO PLAN TO PLANT WINTER FORAGE AND DO NOT HAVE IRRIGATION CAPABILITY ARE AT RISK OF BEING SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THE WINTER DROUGHT. ALSO...THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING WILDFIRE SEASON. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY...AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI