000 FGUS72 KTAE 101959 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-150000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 245 PM EDT SUN DEC 10 2006 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...MODERATE DROUGHT OVER EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INCLUDING THE ADJACENT SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN... ...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... SYNOPSIS... THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WAS DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS PROMOTED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE TALLAHASSEE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). THEN THE RIDGE SHIFTED EAST...ALLOWING A TROUGH TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AFFECTED THE HSA ON DECEMBER 1. SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT...WITH AMOUNTS FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH IN A FEW AREAS. DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES USHERED THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ON DECEMBER 3 AND 7. DURING THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL VARIED FROM A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 9 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 9. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 41.06 60.25 -19.19 68 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 8.30 13.26 -4.96 63 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 32.59 53.97 -21.38 60 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 11.20 15.87 -4.67 71 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 37.53 61.88 -24.35 61 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 12.09 15.35 -3.26 79 PERRY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 35.60 55.19 -19.59 65 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 7.32 11.79 -4.47 62 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 43.85 55.93 -12.08 78 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 13.10 13.36 -0.26 99 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 40.54 50.62 -10.08 80 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 10.74 11.03 -0.29 97 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 34.02 42.53 -8.51 80 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 8.87 9.60 -0.73 92 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... AREA RIVERS REMAINED WELL BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE FLOOD STAGES. STREAM FLOWS RANGED FROM 10-25 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND. FLOWS WERE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... SEVERAL CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WERE AT WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL LEVELS ELSEWHERE. DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS...GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUED TO DECLINE. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES/FIRE DANGER RATINGS RANGED FROM 300-400/LOW-MODERATE OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...400-500/MODERATE-HIGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND...AND 500-600/HIGH-VERY HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX ISSUED DECEMBER 2 INDICATED NEUTRAL (SLIGHTLY DRY TO FAVORABLY MOIST) CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF THE TOPSOIL MOISTURE ACROSS ALABAMA WAS RATED AS ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS...DESPITE LITTLE RAINFALL DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOYBEANS WERE 98 PERCENT HARVESTED...WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR EARLY DECEMBER. ACROSS GEORGIA...ABOUT 85 PERCENT OF THE TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS RATED AS ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS. PRODUCERS CONTINUED PLANTING SMALL GRAINS AND WINTER GRAZING. HOWEVER...RECENT HARD FREEZES AND KILLING FROSTS HAVE FINISHED PASTURES IN SOME AREAS. SHORT HAY SUPPLIES HAVE MANY LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS FACING A DIFFICULT WINTER FEEDING PERIOD. THE COTTON AND PEANUT HARVEST WERE NEARING COMPLETION. ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS SHORT TO ADEQUATE. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE EASTERN BIG BEND INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHERE TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS VERY SHORT. PASTURE CONDITIONS RANGED FROM POOR TO GOOD. THE DRY WEATHER ALLOWED PLANTING AND HARVESTING TO PROCEED AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED DECEMBER 9 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) FOR THE PERIOD FROM DECEMBER 15-19 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR ALL EXCEPT THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE NORMAL RAINFALL IS PREDICTED. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED DECEMBER 9 FOR THE PERIOD FROM DECEMBER 17-23 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR ALL BUT SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE REGION WHERE NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL IS PREDICTED. EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL PEAK DURING THE DURING THE DECEMBER 2006-FEBRUARY 2007 PERIOD...THEN WEAKEN DURING THE MARCH-MAY 2007 PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS EL NINO EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERY STRONG EVENT OF 1997-1998. DURING EL NINO EVENTS...THE JET STREAM IS STRONGER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. CONSEQUENTLY...WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST. THE CPC PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FROM JANUARY THROUGH MARCH 2007 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD IMPROVE THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI