000 FGUS72 KTAE 062011 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-170000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 310 PM EDT THU DEC 6 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT EXISTS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES BORDERING FLORIDA... ...NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... TWO COLD FRONTS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE PERIOD FROM NOVEMBER 21-26. AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...TO THREE TO SEVEN INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THESE AMOUNTS WERE 100 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. AMOUNTS OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA RANGED FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH. THEREAFTER...IT WAS GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 5 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE SHOWN FOR THE PERIOD DECEMBER 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 5. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 41.52 59.76 -18.24 69 SINCE DECEMBER 1 0.01 0.65 -0.64 2 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 36.21 53.55 -17.34 68 SINCE DECEMBER 1 T 0.55 -0.55 0 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 40.72 61.37 -20.65 66 SINCE DECEMBER 1 0.00 0.67 -0.67 0 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 35.38 54.99 -19.61 64 SINCE DECEMBER 1 0.00 0.61 -0.61 0 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 26.52 55.67 -29.15 48 SINCE DECEMBER 1 0.01 0.45 -0.44 2 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 53.18 55.41 -2.23 96 SINCE DECEMBER 1 0.00 0.72 -0.72 0 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 32.57 49.53 -16.96 66 SINCE DECEMBER 1 0.03 0.57 -0.54 5 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 34.96 50.18 -15.22 70 SINCE DECEMBER 1 0.08 0.58 -0.50 14 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA RESPONDED QUICKLY FROM THE POST-THANKSGIVING RAINS WITH SEVERAL OF THE FORECAST POINTS OBSERVING FOUR TO EIGHT FOOT RISES ON NOVEMBER 27...INCLUDING THE PEA RIVER AT SAMSON AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BELLWOOD. BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS PERSISTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE ALAPAHA RIVER WHERE FLOWS WERE NORMAL. FLORIDA PANHANDLE...HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL OVER THE SHOAL RIVER BASIN ON NOVEMBER 26 PUSHED THE RIVER AT MOSSY HEAD ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 14 FEET. THE RIVER CRESTED AT 15.4 FEET EARLY IN THE MORNING OF NOVEMBER 27...WITH MINOR FLOODING OBSERVED. ON LAIRD ROAD IN EASTERN WALTON COUNTY...WATER ROSE TO EIGHT INCHES BELOW THE BRIDGE. WATER WAS OVER THE BANKS AND SIX INCHES FROM THE BOTTOM OF THE BRIDGE AT HIGH AND CHOWDER CHAPEL ROADS. MUCH OF THE RUNOFF FLOWED INTO BRUCE CREEK. OTHER RIVER FORECAST POINTS THAT MEASURED SIGNIFICANT (SIX TO TEN FOOT) RISES WERE THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR CARYVILLE (NOVEMBER 28-29)...AND NEAR PITTMAN (NOVEMBER 27-28). IN CONTRAST...THE FLOW ON THE APALACHICOLA RIVER CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FALL AND SET A NEW DAILY INSTANTANEOUS LOW FLOW FOR NOVEMBER 27 OF 4720 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND. THE WATERSHED FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER EXTENDS INTO NORTH GEORGIA...WHICH HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING HISTORIC DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND HAS NOT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM. FLORIDA BIG BEND...BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS CONTINUED. DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE PAST TWO WEEKS...FLOWS ON THE SUWANNEE RIVER HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING. THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTED THAT THE WITHLACOOCHEE NEAR PINETTA WAS BELOW ITS 10-YEAR/7-DAY FLOW. THE ECONFINA RIVER NEAR PERRY REMAINED DRY. THE AUCILLA RIVER AT LAMONT WAS NOT FLOWING. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WATER LEVELS IN THE SAND-AND-GRAVEL AQUIFER GENERALLY INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE LATE NOVEMBER RAIN EVENTS. IN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT WHERE THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER IS NEAR THE SURFACE....WATER LEVEL DECLINES STABILIZED IN RESPONSE TO RECENT RECHARGE EVENTS BUT THE DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUED WHERE THE FLORIDAN IS DEEPER. ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED LOW TO VERY LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA REMAINED WELL BELOW THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER TABLES. THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTED THAT GROUND WATER LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT REMAINED BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE...WITH 75 PERCENT OF THE MONITORING WELLS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. MANY OF THOSE WELLS WERE AT OR NEAR THEIR MONTHLY RECORD LOWS. THE DISTRICT'S AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR NOVEMBER WAS 1.2 INCHES...OR ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI)/FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA RANGED FROM 350-550/MODERATE-HIGH. KBDI/FIRE DANGER VARIED FROM 100-300/LOW OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...TO 400-550/MODERATE-HIGH THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...THE PEANUT HARVEST CONCLUDED...WITH THE COTTON HARVEST NEAR ITS END. SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE...TO SHORT TO VERY SHORT ELSEWHERE. GROWERS CONTINUED TO PLANT...HARVEST...AND IRRIGATE CROPS WHERE NECESSARY. THE TOMATO HARVEST CONCLUDED IN GADSDEN COUNTY INCLUDING THE QUINCY AREA. THE CONDITION OF THE PASTURE WAS GENERALLY FAIR TO POOR. IN WASHINGTON COUNTY...SUMMER GRASSES WERE FROSTED AND CATTLE WERE DEPENDENT ON HAY FOR FORAGE. MOST COOL SEASON FORAGES WILL NOT BE READY FOR GRAZING UNTIL AFTER JANUARY 1. IN HOLMES COUNTY...THE SEEDING OF PASTURE WAS DELAYED DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE CATTLE CONDITION WAS RATED FAIR TO GOOD. SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE LATE NOVEMBER RAINS HELPED RECHARGE THE TOP SOIL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE SUB SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM SHORT TO VERY SHORT. PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS REMAINED POOR TO VERY POOR. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS CONTINUED TO FEED HAY...AND SELL OFF SOME OF THEIR HERDS DUE TO THE LACK OF PASTURE AVAILABLE FOR GRAZING. SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM SHORT TO VERY SHORT. MUCH OF THIS YEAR'S PECAN CROP WAS ALREADY HARVESTED. THE DRY SOIL CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO PLAQUE LIVESTOCK AND SMALL GRAIN PRODUCERS. MOST GROWERS WERE WAITING ON MORE MOISTURE BEFORE PLANTING SMALL GRAINS. THOSE THAT WERE PLANTED REQUIRED IRRIGATION. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. THE DISTRICT IS IN THE MIDST OF THE AUTUMN DRY SEASON WITH EXTREMELY LOW SURFACE AND GROUND WATER LEVELS...AS WELL AS A LARGE ANNUAL RAINFALL DEFICIT. VOLUNTARY WATER CONSERVATION ACTIONS ARE RECOMMENDED. THERE ARE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED DECEMBER 5 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD DECEMBER 11-15 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED DECEMBER 5 FOR THE PERIOD DECEMBER 13-19 CALLS FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY PREDICTS A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE DATE LINE TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE LA NINA WILL CONTINUE INTO SPRING 2008. OVER HALF OF THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA THROUGH FEBRUARY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. TYPICALLY...LA NINA BRINGS A WARMER AND DRIER COOL SEASON TO THE REGION. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WINTER AND SPRING MONTHS. WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS...MOISTURE RECHARGE OF GROUND WATER...SOILS...PONDS AND RESERVOIRS WILL BE LIMITED. GROWERS WHO PLAN TO PLANT WINTER FORAGE AND DO NOT HAVE IRRIGATION CAPABILITY ARE AT RISK OF BEING SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THE WINTER DROUGHT. ALSO...THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING WILDFIRE SEASON. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY...AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI