000 FGUS72 KTAE 212347 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-260000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 645 PM EDT TUE NOV 21 2006 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...A MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTED THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS A COLD FRONT ON NOVEMBER 6-7 WHICH PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARIED FROM A HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT GENERATED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON NOVEMBER 15-16. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN BIG BEND WHERE TWO TO FOUR INCH AMOUNTS WERE OBSERVED. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH NOVEMBER 20 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH NOVEMBER 20. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 40.97 57.79 -16.82 71 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 8.21 10.80 -2.59 76 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 32.49 51.81 -19.32 63 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 11.10 13.71 -2.61 81 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 36.66 59.17 -22.51 62 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 11.22 12.64 -1.42 89 PERRY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 34.65 53.46 -18.81 65 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 7.00 10.06 -3.06 70 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 43.55 53.03 -9.48 82 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 12.80 10.46 2.34 122 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 39.70 48.32 -8.62 82 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 9.70 8.73 0.97 111 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 34.16 41.01 -6.85 83 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 8.83 8.08 0.75 109 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... AREA RIVERS REMAINED BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE FLOOD STAGES. STREAM FLOWS RANGED FROM 75 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND 10 TO 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... SEVERAL CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND WERE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL LEVELS ELSEWHERE. WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK...GROUND WATER LEVELS WILL STEADY TO SLOWLY FALL. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) FOR THE PERIOD FROM NOVEMBER 3-14 RANGED FROM 450-550 ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...500-600 OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND 350-450 FOR COASTAL AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. FROM NOVEMBER 15-20...INDICES FELL TO 300-400 OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...400-500 OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND EASTERN BIG BEND...AND 200-300 FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...WESTERN BIG BEND AND COASTAL SECTIONS. FIRE DANGER RATINGS WERE LOW TO MODERATE OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX ISSUED NOVEMBER 18 ABNORMALLY MOIST TO WET CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND SLIGHTLY DRY TO FAVORABLY MOIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. PASTURE CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA IMPROVED WITH 50-60 PERCENT IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY. ALSO...LIVESTOCK WAS REPORTED IN ADEQUATE TO GOOD CONDITION. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA...PEANUT HARVESTING WAS COMPLETE FOR MOST GROWERS WITH 96 PERCENT...JUST SHY OF THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE. PASTURE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE WERE MOSTLY FAIR...WHILE FAIR TO POOR CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA...ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF THE PASTURE REPORTED AS FAIR TO GOOD. PRODUCERS WERE PLEASED WITH THE RAINFALL THAT FELL LAST WEEK. COTTON GROWERS WERE COMPLETING HARVEST. MANY LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS ARE FACING A DIFFICULT WINTER FEEDING PERIOD DUE TO POOR GRAZING CONDITIONS AND SHORT HAY SUPPLIES. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED NOVEMBER 20 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) FOR THE PERIOD FROM NOVEMBER 26-30 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR ALL EXCEPT SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL IS PREDICTED. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED NOVEMBER 20 FOR THE PERIOD FROM NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 4 CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL THE ENTIRE REGION. WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN TO A MODERATE EL NINO EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. HOWEVER...THIS EL NINO EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERY STRONG EVENT OF 1997-1998. TYPICALLY EL NINO EFFECTS PRODUCE WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA. THE CPC PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FROM DECEMBER 2006 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2007 PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD IMPROVE THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED DECEMBER 5. $$ JAMSKI