000 FGUS72 KTAE 201506 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-300000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1000 AM EDT TUE NOV 20 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... ...NORMAL TO ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... WITH THE JET STREAM/STORM TRACK REMAINING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION THIS MONTH...RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE. A FEW COLD FRONTS MANAGE TO SQUEEZE OUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (0.25 INCH) RELEGATED TO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WAS OBSERVED...WITH SEVERAL REPORTING LOCATIONS RECORDING NO RAIN. RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR NOVEMBER ARE RUNNING FROM TWO TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...OR LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH NOVEMBER 19 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE SHOWN FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH NOVEMBER 19. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 40.30 57.65 -17.35 70 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 8.88 10.66 -1.78 83 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 33.62 51.69 -18.07 65 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 14.87 13.59 1.28 109 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 38.67 59.01 -20.34 66 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 11.44 12.48 -1.04 92 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 33.21 52.78 -19.57 63 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 8.99 10.18 -1.19 88 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 25.49 54.31 -28.82 47 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 7.10 10.47 -3.37 68 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 45.62 52.85 -7.23 86 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 11.49 10.28 1.21 112 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 31.11 47.65 -16.54 65 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 6.16 8.11 -1.95 76 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 33.98 48.18 -14.20 71 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 6.40 8.59 -2.19 75 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... WELL BELOW TO BELOW NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE ALAPAHA RIVER WHERE FLOWS WERE NORMAL. FLORIDA PANHANDLE...LEVELS AND FLOWS FOR MOST STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE BEEN DECLINING FOR THE LAST THREE WEEKS FOLLOWING THE OCTOBER RAINS BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE LEVELS OBSERVED IN EARLY OCTOBER. THE WATERSHED FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER WHICH EXTENDS INTO NORTH GEORGIA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING HISTORIC DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OCTOBER. AS A RESULT...THE LEVEL AND FLOW ON THE APALACHICOLA RIVER DID NOT INCREASE. FLORIDA BIG BEND...WELL BELOW TO BELOW NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS PERSISTED. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE ST MARKS RIVER WHERE FLOWS WERE NORMAL. DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS MONTH...FLOWS ON THE SUWANNEE RIVER HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECLINING. MOST REPORTING LOCATIONS RECORDED LOW TO EXTREME LOW FLOWS. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AFTER A SLIGHT RECOVERY LAST MONTH...AQUIFER LEVELS HAVE RESUMED THEIR DOWNWARD TREND. THE FLORIDA AQUIFER REMAINS AT OR NEAR THE RECORD LOW LEVELS SET DURING THE 2000-2002 PERIOD. ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED VERY LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WERE WELL BELOW THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER TABLES. THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTED THAT GROUND WATER LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT REMAIN LOW TO EXTREMELY LOW. THE MAJORITY OF THE WELLS THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT WERE NEAR HISTORIC LOWS. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI)/FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA RANGED FROM 450-550/ MODERATE-HIGH. KBDI/FIRE DANGER VARIED FROM 250-450/LOW-MODERATE OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 450-600/MODERATE-HIGH ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM SHORT TO ADEQUATE. SURPLUS MOISTURE WAS REPORTED IN JACKSON COUNTY...WITH VERY SHORT MOISTURE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND. THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN PREVENTED SOME PLANTING OF WINTER WHEAT DUE TO VERY DRY SOILS. IN JEFFERSON COUNTY...COTTON PICKING CONTINUED AS THE PECAN HARVEST BEGAN. NURSERIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA WERE BEGINNING TO DIG FIELD-GROWN DECIDUOUS PLANTS...WHICH ENTERED DORMANCY AFTER THE RECENT FROSTS AND FREEZES. THE PEANUT HARVEST IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WAS EXPECTED TO FINISH BY THE END OF THE MONTH. SOME PEANUT FIELDS WERE DAMAGED FROM THE RECENT FREEZES. PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS RANGED FROM POOR TO GOOD. WINTER FORAGE PLANTED IN SEPTEMBER AND EARLY OCTOBER WAS WITHERING FROM DROUGHT AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HAY PRODUCTION HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL THIS YEAR. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM VERY SHORT TO SHORT. PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS WERE POOR TO VERY POOR. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS CONTINUED TO FEED HAY...AND SELL OFF MORE OF THEIR HERDS DUE TO THE LACK OF PASTURE AVAILABLE FOR GRAZING. THE DRY WEATHER ALLOWED PRODUCERS TO ACTIVELY HARVEST THIS SEASON'S FAIRLY LARGE PECAN CROP. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM VERY SHORT TO SHORT. THE PECAN CROP RANGE FROM FAIR TO EXCELLENT...WITH NEARLY HALF OF THE CROP HARVESTED. THE RECENT FROSTS AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES PUT HAYFIELDS AND PASTURES INTO DORMANCY...AND CAUSED SOME DAMAGE TO FALL VEGETABLE CROPS. DRY SOIL CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO PLAQUE LIVESTOCK AND SMALL GRAIN PRODUCERS. SOME FARMERS WERE WAITING ON MORE MOISTURE BEFORE PLANTING SMALL GRAINS. THOSE THAT WERE PLANTED WERE IN DESPERATE NEED OF RAIN. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. THE DISTRICT IS IN THE MIDST OF THE AUTUMN DRY SEASON WITH EXTREMELY LOW SURFACE AND GROUND WATER LEVELS...AS WELL AS A LARGE ANNUAL RAINFALL DEFICIT. VOLUNTARY WATER CONSERVATION ACTIONS ARE RECOMMENDED. CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...NO WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED NOVEMBER 19 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER 25-29 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IS PREDICTED. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED NOVEMBER 19 FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 3 CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. BOTH THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER AND SEASONAL OUTLOOK FROM DECEMBER TO FEBRUARY CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE DATE LINE TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE MODERATE LA NINA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY 2008. TYPICALLY...LA NINA BRINGS A WARMER AND DRIER COOL SEASON TO THE REGION. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND POSSIBLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. IF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OCCURS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS...MOISTURE RECHARGE OF GROUND WATER...SOILS...PONDS AND RESERVOIRS WILL BE LIMITED. FARMERS WHO PLAN TO PLANT WINTER FORAGE AND DO NOT HAVE IRRIGATION CAPABILITY ARE AT RISK OF BEING SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THE WINTER DROUGHT. ALSO...THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING WILDFIRE SEASON. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY...AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI