000 FGUS72 KTAE 200912 ESFTAE ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-302300- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 415 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005 ...VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS WINTER... SUMMARY... THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR AND PALMER DROUGHT INDEX SHOW ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HAS BLOCKED MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORTUNATELY...HEAVY TROPICAL RAINFALL OVER THE SUMMER...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE YEARLY ACCUMULATIONS NEAR NORMAL. FOR INSTANCE...TALLAHASSEE HAD THE THIRD WETTEST JUNE THROUGH AUGUST ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 34.49 INCHES. THIS THREE MONTH TOTAL IS MORE THAN HALF OF WHAT TALLAHASSEE CAN EXPECT IN AN ENTIRE YEAR. HOWEVER...SINCE SEPTEMBER 1...LESS THAN THREE AND A THIRD INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TRI-STATE REGION. AS A RESULT...OVER THE PAST TWO AND A HALF MONTHS THERE HAS BEEN A SUBSTANTIAL DEFICIT IN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN ONE-FORTH OF NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...REMAINING GROUND WATER IN THOSE AREAS WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGER IN THE WINTER MONTHS. HOWEVER...LONG RANGE FORECASTS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WINTER AND WATER SUPPLY CONCERNS THIS SPRING WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RAMPS UP. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AND PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 AND SINCE JANUARY 1 FOR A FEW LOCATIONS: STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 1.76 10.66 - 8.90 17 SINCE JANUARY 1 58.66 57.65 1.01 102 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 3.28 13.59 -10.31 24 SINCE JANUARY 1 51.47 51.69 - 0.22 99 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 2.96 13.63 -10.67 22 SINCE JANUARY 1 46.51 59.00 -12.49 79 ALBANY GA SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 3.24 8.48 - 5.24 38 SINCE JANUARY 1 49.02 48.28 0.74 102 FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... THE KEETCH-BYRAM INDEX INDICATES A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA WITH INDICES OF 500 TO 700. CROPS...GRASSES AND WOODS ARE VERY DRY FROM THE LACK OF RAINFALL. BURNING IS DISCOURAGED...ALTHOUGH NO BURN BANS ARE OFFICIALLY IN EFFECT. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRY TO ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE LACK OF RAINFALL IS REDUCING WHEAT ACREAGE AND ENDANGERING SMALL GRAINS. IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...WINTER GRAZING IS IN JEOPARDY DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. DAILY EVAPORATION RATES ARE AVERAGING AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SOIL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY VERY SHORT...ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...ABOUT 65-70 PERCENT OF THE TOP SOIL MOISTURE IS DRY. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT CAN REPLENISH SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... ALL RIVERS ARE AT LOW BASE FLOW CONDITIONS AND NEARLY FLAT. ...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE PEA AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVERS ARE RUNNING AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ...GEORGIA. THE RESERVOIR LEVELS ON THE LOWER CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER SYSTEM ARE RUNNING ABOUT 22 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FLINT RIVER IS AVERAGING AROUND 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE OCHLOCKONEE...LITTLE AND WITHLACOOCHEE RIVERS ARE RUNNING 30 TO 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ...FLORIDA. DUE TO HEAVY TROPICAL RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE YEAR...FLOWS FROM THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN LEVELS ON THE SUWANNEE RIVER AROUND 50 PER CENT OF NORMAL. SIMILAR FLOW LEVELS AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL ARE OCCURRING ON THE AUCILLA AND AND ST. MARKS RIVERS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WHOSE HEADWATERS HAVE ALSO RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAIN. MOST REMAINING BASINS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND ARE RUNNING AT 30 TO 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS ...NEW RECORDS. CONTRARY TO NORMAL EXPECTATIONS...SOME COASTAL BASINS ARE EXTREMELY DRY. THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER NEAR CROSS CITY IS SETTING NEW LOW FLOW RECORDS WITH AT 3.7 FEET COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RECORD OF 5.08 FT ON MAY 08 1956. THERE ARE OTHER RATHER LOW FLOW SITUATIONS IN SWAMPS AROUND THE BIG BEND INCLUDING THE APALACHICOLA FOREST...TATES HELL SWAMP AND SAN PEDRO BAY. IT IS UNUSUAL THAT THE LOWER DRAINAGE SWAMP AREAS ARE DRIER THAN HEADWATERS AREAS FURTHER INLAND. NORMALLY DOWNSTREAM AREAS IN THE SWAMPS ARE THE LAST TO DRY OUT. THE ONE UPSTREAM EXCEPTION IS THE LITTLE RIVER NEAR ADEL WHERE A RECORD LOW OF 9.68 FT ON MAR 18 1968 HAS BEEN REPLACED BY NEW LOWS AVERAGING AROUND 1.6 FEET. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SLOW RELEASES FROM AN UPSTREAM DAM. OUTLOOK... A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SEND SEVERAL COLD FRONTS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...FUTURE COLD FRONTS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE. THEREFORE...LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS INDICATE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WINTER...PARTICULARLY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. $$ LANIER/JAMSKI/GODSEY/BARRY