000 FGUS72 KTAE 091801 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-170000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 100 PM EDT FRI NOV 9 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT LINGERS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION... ...NORMAL TO ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... AFTER THE BENEFICIAL RAINS OF MID-OCTOBER...THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER WAS DOMINATED BY A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWED SEVERAL COLD FRONTS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW PREVENTED DEEP LAYER GULF MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH NOVEMBER 8 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE SHOWN FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH NOVEMBER 8. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 40.29 56.21 -15.92 72 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 8.87 9.22 -0.35 96 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 33.38 50.34 -16.96 66 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 14.63 12.24 2.39 120 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 38.67 57.28 -18.61 68 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 11.44 10.75 0.69 106 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 33.10 51.26 -18.16 65 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 8.88 8.66 0.22 103 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 25.49 53.43 -27.94 48 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 7.10 9.59 -2.49 74 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 45.32 50.92 -5.60 89 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 11.19 8.35 2.84 134 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 31.00 46.40 -15.40 67 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 6.05 6.86 -0.81 88 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 33.91 46.73 -12.82 73 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 6.33 7.14 -0.81 89 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... WELL BELOW TO BELOW NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE ALAPAHA RIVER WHERE FLOWS WERE NORMAL. FLORIDA PANHANDLE...HEAVY RAINFALL LAST MONTH OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE KEPT MOST STREAMS AND RIVERS FROM THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD IN THE NORMAL RANGE. RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE IMPROVED WITH SOME IN THE NORMAL RANGE AND OTHERS WELL BELOW NORMAL. FLORIDA BIG BEND...WELL BELOW TO BELOW NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS PERSISTED. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE ST MARKS RIVER WHERE FLOWS WERE NORMAL. STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER SUWANNEE RIVER IMPROVED LAST MONTH. THE LEVEL AT WHITE SPRINGS ROSE 5.5 FEET. LEVELS AND FLOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUWANNEE RIVER REMAINED AT OR NEAR EXTREME LOWS. THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER NEAR PINETTA SET A NEW MONTHLY LOW LEVEL FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH. THE STAGE FELL TO AN INCH ABOVE THE HISTORIC LOW AT THE GAGE BEFORE RISING 8 INCHES THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. THE ECONFINA RIVER NEAR PERRY SET A NEW MONTHLY LOW FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE MONTH...AND FOUR MILES BELOW THE GAGE THE RIVER WAS DRY. THE AUCILLA RIVER AT LAMONT...A HALF MILE BELOW THE GAGE AT U.S. HIGHWAY 27...WAS ALSO DRY. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHILE WATER LEVELS IN THE FLORIDA AQUIFER INCREASED ONE TO TWO FEET DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS...THEY REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE RECORD LOW LEVELS SET DURING THE 2000-2002 PERIOD. ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED VERY LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WERE WELL BELOW THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER TABLES...WHICH NORMALLY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTED THAT GROUND WATER LEVELS INCREASED AN AVERAGE OF ABOUT A TENTH OF A FOOT LAST MONTH. TWENTY-SIX WELLS SET NEW MONTHLY LOWS FOR OCTOBER...AND THREE WELLS SET NEW HISTORIC LOWS. LEVELS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE UPPER SUWANNEE RIVER...WHICH RECEIVED ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL. OVERALL... LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT WERE LOW TO EXTREMELY LOW. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI)/FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA RANGED FROM 400-500/ MODERATE-HIGH. KBDI/FIRE DANGER VARIED FROM 200-400/LOW-MODERATE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 400-550/MODERATE-HIGH ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM SHORT TO ADEQUATE...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OF VERY SHORT SUPPLY. HARVESTING PROCEEDED AT A STEADY PACE IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH COTTON HARVEST IN FULL SWING. IN JEFFERSON COUNTY...HEAVY RAINS LAST MONTH AIDED THE GROWTH OF LATE PLANTED PEANUTS...HOWEVER PICKING WAS DELAYED FOR TWO WEEKS. THE TOMATO HARVEST WAS ACTIVE IN GADSDEN COUNTY. THERE WERE STILL REPORTS OF WHITE FLIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS WERE FAIR TO EXCELLENT. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AFTER NEARLY TWO WEEKS OF NO RAINFALL...PRODUCERS WATCHED AS THE SOILS QUICKLY DRIED. SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM SHORT TO ADEQUATE ALONG THE FLORIDA BORDER...TO VERY SHORT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. FARMERS CONTINUED SMALL GRAIN SEEDBED PREPARATION AND SPENT TIME SOWING THEIR WHEAT CROPS. THE LIVESTOCK CONDITION WAS GENERALLY POOR. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM VERY SHORT OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...TO SHORT TO ADEQUATE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENED DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE LACK OF RAINFALL DELAYED PLANTING IN SOME AREAS. IN AREAS WITH BETTER SOIL MOISTURE...SMALL GRAINS WERE PLANTED. SOME GROWERS HAD TO IRRIGATE SMALL GRAINS AFTER PLANTING TO TRIGGER GERMINATION. DESPITE THE DROUGHT...PECAN GROWERS EXPECT A GOOD CROP THIS SEASON. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. THE DISTRICT IS IN THE MIDST OF THE AUTUMN DRY SEASON WITH EXTREMELY LOW SURFACE AND GROUND WATER LEVELS...AS WELL AS A LARGE ANNUAL RAINFALL DEFICIT. VOLUNTARY WATER CONSERVATION ACTIONS ARE RECOMMENDED. CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...NO WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED NOVEMBER 8 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER 14-18 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED NOVEMBER 8 FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER 16-22 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. ELSEWHERE...ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IS PREDICTED. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. FINALLY...THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER-JANUARY PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW RAINFALL. LA NINA CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. RECENT EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE MODERATE LA NINA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY 2008. TYPICALLY...LA NINA BRINGS A WARMER AND DRIER COOL SEASON TO THE REGION. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND POSSIBLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. IF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OCCURS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS...MOISTURE RECHARGE OF GROUND WATER...SOILS...PONDS AND RESERVOIRS WILL BE LIMITED. FARMERS WHO PLAN TO PLANT WINTER FORAGE AND DO NOT HAVE IRRIGATION CAPABILITY ARE AT RISK OF BEING SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THE WINTER DROUGHT. ALSO...THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING WILDFIRE SEASON. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY...AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI