000 FGUS72 KTAE 031101 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-080000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 600 AM EDT FRI NOV 3 2006 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... ...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST ELSEWHERE... SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER IT DID USHER IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AUTUMN AIRMASS PUSHED EAST. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY ON OCTOBER 26-27. ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FUELED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PRODUCED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARIED FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...TO TWO TO FOUR INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH NOVEMBER 2 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH NOVEMBER 2. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 38.61 55.48 -16.87 70 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 5.85 8.49 -2.64 69 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 30.19 49.62 -19.43 61 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 8.80 11.52 -2.73 76 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 35.84 56.43 -20.59 64 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 10.40 9.90 0.50 105 PERRY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 33.00 51.84 -18.84 64 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 5.35 8.44 -3.09 63 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 38.15 50.00 -11.85 76 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 7.40 7.43 -0.03 99 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 36.95 46.03 -9.08 80 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 7.15 6.44 0.71 111 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 31.11 39.50 -8.39 79 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 5.78 6.57 -0.79 88 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... AREA RIVERS REMAINED BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE FLOOD STAGES. STREAMFLOWS VARIED FROM 10 TO 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...FLOWS WERE 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... SEVERAL CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND REMAIN WERE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. WITH CONTINUED PROSPECTS FOR RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...DECLINING WATER LEVELS WILL STEADY OFF AND BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS RANGED FROM 500-600 ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...400-500 OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...AND 300-400 FOR COASTAL AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. FIRE DANGER RATINGS VARIED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... HIGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE INLAND BIG BEND...AND LOW TO MODERATE ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE LATEST CROP MOISTURE INDEX FOR THE WEEKLY PERIOD ENDING OCTOBER 28 INDICATED SLIGHTLY DRY TO FAVORABLY MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...PERIODIC SHOWERS KEPT CROP PRODUCERS OUT OF THEIR FIELDS. TOPSOIL WAS REPORTED AS 50-55 PERCENT ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS MOISTURE...WITH FAIR TO GOOD PASTURE CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...PASTURE CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY IN FAIR CONDITION. MANY STOCK PONDS WERE DRY...AND WINTER HAY SUPPLIES REMAIN SHORT. OVER SOUTH GEORGIA...TOPSOIL WAS REPORTED AS 45-50 PERCENT ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS MOISTURE...WITH POOR TO FAIR PASTURE CONDITIONS. MAIN CONCERN FOR GROWERS IS THE SHORTAGE OF WINTER HAY. SCATTERED RAINS DELAYED SMALL GRAIN PLANTING. THE PECAN HARVEST HAS BEGUN...WITH EXPECTED YIELDS MUCH LESS THAN ANTICIPATED. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED NOVEMBER 2 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PERIOD FROM NOVEMBER 8-12. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED NOVEMBER 2 DURING THE PERIOD FROM NOVEMBER 10-16 PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION CAN EXPECT NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WINTER...POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TO A MODERATE EL NINO EVENT. HOWEVER...THIS EL NINO EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERY STRONG EVENT OF 1997-1998. TYPICALLY EL NINO EFFECTS PRODUCE WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PERIOD FROM LATE NOVEMBER TO JANUARY. THE CPC PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FROM DECEMBER 2006 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2007 PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THIS PATTERN WOULD IMPROVE THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS...RECHARGING GROUND MOISTURE LEVELS AND FILLING DRY LAKES...CREEKS AND STREAMS. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED NOVEMBER 17. $$ JAMSKI