000 FGUS72 KTAE 260002 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-310000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 755 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT LINGERS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION... ...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS IN DROUGHT WITH ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM DRIFTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE PAST WEEK TAPPING AMPLE GULF MOISTURE AND BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WITH TOTALS OF FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES. THESE RAINS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS IN THE DROUGHT. FURTHER EAST...AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ONE TO FOUR INCHES. THE RECENT RAINS RESULTED IN SEASONAL SURPLUSES (IN EXCESS OF 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL) OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BIG BEND. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH OCTOBER 24 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE SHOWN FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH OCTOBER 24. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 40.29 54.52 -14.23 74 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 8.87 7.53 1.34 118 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 28.73 46.55 -15.21 62 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 14.63 10.49 4.14 139 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 38.67 55.37 -16.70 70 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 11.44 8.84 2.60 129 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 33.10 49.56 -16.46 67 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 8.88 6.96 1.92 128 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 25.45 52.36 -26.91 49 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 7.06 8.52 -1.46 83 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 45.32 48.90 -3.58 93 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 11.19 6.33 4.86 177 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 31.00 45.59 -14.59 68 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 6.05 5.48 -0.57 110 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 33.99 45.20 -11.29 75 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 6.33 5.61 0.72 113 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... WELL BELOW TO BELOW NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS CONTINUED THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ALABAMA...ESPECIALLY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING FLORIDA. ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS DURING THE PAST WEEK PUSHED RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL MONTHS...MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. FLOWS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WERE AT OR BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE. OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...FLOWS RANGED FROM 25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... GROUND WATER LEVELS MAINTAINED A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE WEEK OF OCTOBER 10-17. HEAVY RAINFALL THE FOLLOWING WEEK STABILIZED OR INCREASED AQUIFER LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. WATER LEVELS IN THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER REMAINED NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS. ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED RATHER LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WERE BELOW THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER TABLES...WHICH NORMALLY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTED A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN GROUND WATER LEVELS FROM THE PAST WEEK'S RAINS...WITH MOST MONITORED WELLS IN THE 10 TO 25TH PERCENTILE. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI)/FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA FELL FROM 550-650/HIGH THE WEEK OF OCTOBER 10-17 TO 350-450/LOW-MODERATE THIS PAST WEEK. LIKEWISE...KBDI/FIRE DANGER OVER NORTHWEST FLORIDA DECREASED DURING THE PAST WEEK FROM 500-600/HIGH TO 100-400/VERY LOW-MODERATE. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM SHORT TO ADEQUATE...WITH AREAS OF SURPLUS SUPPLY. RECENT RAINS LOOSENED HARDENED SOILS ALLOWING SOME GROWERS TO DIG PEANUTS AND HELPED RECHARGE STOCK POND WATER SUPPLIES. IN JEFFERSON COUNTY...HEAVY RAINS DELAYED SOME PEANUT DIGGING AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGED THE COTTON CROP SLIGHTLY. IN WASHINGTON COUNTY...PEANUT AND COTTON HARVESTING WAS UNDERWAY. HAY SUPPLIES REMAINED SHORT. PASTURE AND CATTLE CONDITIONS GENERALLY RANGED FROM FAIR TO GOOD. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM VERY SHORT TO SHORT...WITH SURPLUS SUPPLY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING FLORIDA. LIVESTOCK AND PASTURE CONDITIONS WERE POOR TO VERY POOR. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM VERY SHORT OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...TO SHORT TO ADEQUATE ELSEWHERE. THE RECENT RAINS WERE A WELCOME SIGHT FOR PRODUCERS WITH SMALL GRAINS...PASTURES AND PEANUTS TO DIG. THUS FAR...THIS SEASON'S PEANUT AND COTTON YIELDS LOOK GOOD. SOME LATE CORN WAS NOT YET MATURE TO HARVEST. POND AND STREAM LEVELS REMAINED VERY LOW AND THERE WERE REPORTS OF SOME SHALLOW WELLS GOING DRY. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS CONTINUED FEEDING HAY DUE TO POOR PASTURE CONDITIONS. WORM INFESTATIONS WERE OBSERVED IN SOME PASTURES...AND WILL LIKELY GO UNTREATED. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. THE DISTRICT IS ENTERING THE DRY SEASON WITH EXTREMELY LOW SURFACE AND GROUND WATER LEVELS AND A LARGE ANNUAL RAINFALL DEFICIT. VOLUNTARY WATER CONSERVATION ACTIONS ARE RECOMMENDED. THERE ARE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...NO WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED OCTOBER 25 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER 31-NOVEMBER 4 CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE REGION WHERE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IS PREDICTED. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED OCTOBER 25 FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER 2-7 CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IS PREDICTED. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK ISSUED OCTOBER 18 FOR NOVEMBER CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. FINALLY...THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK ISSUED OCTOBER 18 FOR NOVEMBER-JANUARY PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW RAINFALL. LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. RECENT EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY 2008. TYPICALLY...LA NINA BRINGS A WARMER AND DRIER COOL SEASON TO THE REGION. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LA NINA...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND POSSIBLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. IF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OCCURS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS...MOISTURE RECHARGE OF GROUND WATER...SOILS...PONDS AND RESERVOIRS WILL BE LIMITED. FARMERS WHO PLAN TO PLANT WINTER FORAGE AND DO NOT HAVE IRRIGATION CAPABILITY ARE AT RISK OF BEING SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THE WINTER DROUGHT. ALSO...THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING WILDFIRE SEASON. NOTE: DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA...AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI