000 FGUS72 KTAE 201533 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-250000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1115 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SYNOPSIS... THE FIRST WEEK OF THE PERIOD WAS DOMINATED BY A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS PATTERN PRODUCED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THEN THE RIDGE WAS REPLACED BY A TROUGH...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER DURING THE PAST WEEK...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. RAINFALL WHICH FELL DURING THE PERIOD OCTOBER 17-19 WAS THE FIRST IN NEARLY THREE WEEKS FOR MOST AREAS. AMOUNTS WERE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM AROUND A HALF INCH TO NEARLY FOUR INCHES. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND MAY HAVE RECEIVED AS MUCH AS FIVE INCHES. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH OCTOBER 19 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH OCTOBER 19. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 35.37 54.02 -18.65 65 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 2.61 7.03 - 4.42 37 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 28.64 48.00 -19.36 60 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 7.25 9.90 - 2.65 73 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 33.22 54.97 -21.75 60 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 8.64 8.44 0.20 102 PERRY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 30.50 48.83 -18.33 62 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 4.24 7.27 - 3.03 58 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 36.55 48.51 -11.96 75 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 5.85 5.94 - 0.09 98 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 34.38 44.89 -10.51 77 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 4.58 5.30 - 0.72 86 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 30.99 38.46 - 7.47 81 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 5.66 5.53 0.13 102 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... AREA RIVERS REMAINED WELL BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE FLOOD STAGES. IN COMPARISON...FLOWS ON MOST RIVERS WERE APPROACHING THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE 2004. STREAMFLOWS VARIED FROM 10 TO 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TO 25 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLOWS WERE 50 TO 75 PERCENT NORMAL. ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...FLOWS RANGED FROM 10 TO 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH WELL BELOW (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND REMAIN QUITE LOW. IN FACT...A FEW WELLS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ARE LOWER THAN THOSE RECORDED DURING THE FALL OF 2004. WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS... DECLINING WATER LEVELS WILL STEADY OFF AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS RANGED FROM 600-700 ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INLAND AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...500-600 OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND 500-650 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. COASTAL AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE REPORTED KBDI VALUES IN THE 400-500 CATEGORY. FIRE DANGER RATINGS WERE MODERATE TO HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE INLAND PANHANDLE...HIGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND LOW TO MODERATE ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE LATEST CROP MOISTURE INDEX FOR THE WEEKLY PERIOD ENDING OCTOBER 14 INDICATES ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. EXCESSIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. ACROSS ALABAMA...NEARLY TWO-THIRDS OF THE PASTURE WAS IN POOR CONDITION. DESPITE SCATTERED RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK...FALL HARVEST ACTIVITIES CONTINUED. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...PASTURE CONDITIONS WERE POOR TO VERY POOR. RECENT RAINFALL THIS WEEK ALLEVIATED THE STRESS CONDITIONS ON CROPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA...PASTURES AND HAYFIELDS WERE TURNING BROWN DUE TO LACK OF RAINFALL...AND SMALL GRAIN PLANTING WAS DELAYED. YET BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED COTTON YIELDS WERE ATTRIBUTED TO THE DRY WEATHER. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED OCTOBER 15 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD FROM OCTOBER 21-25. SIMILARLY...THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED OCTOBER 15 FOR THE PERIOD FROM OCTOBER 23-29 PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WINTER...POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TO A MODERATE EL NINO EVENT. HOWEVER...THIS EL NINO EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERY STRONG EVENT OF 1997-1998. TYPICALLY EL NINO EFFECTS PRODUCE WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PERIOD FROM LATE NOVEMBER TO JANUARY. THE CPC PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FROM DECEMBER 2006 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2007 PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THIS PATTERN WOULD IMPROVE THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WITH RECHARGING GROUND MOISTURE LEVELS AND FILLING DRY LAKES...CREEKS AND STREAMS. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED NOVEMBER 3. $$ JAMSKI