000 FGUS72 KTAE 100401 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-180000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1200 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT PERSISTS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SYNOPSIS... A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION PROVIDED A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND PATTERN. AMPLE ATLANTIC MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT...PRODUCED SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS RANGED FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. ANNUAL RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL FOR THE TALLAHASSEE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA VARIED BETWEEN 9 AND 26 INCHES. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH OCTOBER 8 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE SHOWN FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH OCTOBER 8. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 37.10 52.92 -15.82 70 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 5.68 5.93 -0.25 96 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 28.73 46.55 -17.82 62 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 9.98 8.45 1.53 118 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 27.73 53.72 -25.99 52 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 6.16 7.19 -1.03 86 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 25.71 48.20 -22.49 53 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 3.11 5.60 -2.49 56 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 24.89 50.92 -26.03 49 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 6.50 7.08 -0.58 92 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 37.88 47.47 -9.59 80 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 3.75 4.90 -1.15 77 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 27.24 43.83 -16.59 62 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 2.29 4.29 -2.00 53 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 32.19 44.04 -11.85 73 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 4.61 4.45 0.16 104 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... WELL BELOW NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS CONTINUED IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLOWS WERE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. ON OCTOBER 2...NEW RECORD LOW FLOWS WERE ESTABLISHED AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: APALACHICOLA RIVER AT CHATTAHOOCHEE (JACKSON COUNTY)...CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR ALTHA (CALHOUN COUNTY)...TELOGIA CREEK NEAR BRISTOL (LIBERTY COUNTY)...ECONFINA CREEK NEAR BENNETT (BAY COUNTY)...AND THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE (WALTON COUNTY). FLOWS AT THE SUWANNEE RIVER AT WHITE SPRINGS INCREASED TO ABOVE THE 25TH PERCENTILE DURING THE LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LEVELS AND FLOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUWANNEE AND OTHER MAJOR STREAMS WERE BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER NEAR PINETTA AND ECONFINA RIVER NEAR PERRY SET NEW MONTHLY LOWS. THE AUCILLA RIVER AT LAMONT WAS DRY A HALF MILE BELOW THE GAGE AT U.S. HIGHWAY 27. FLOW WAS OBSERVED 15 MILES DOWNSTREAM NEAR CABBAGE GROVE. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... GROUND WATER LEVELS MAINTAINED A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED RAINFALL STABILIZED OR INCREASED AQUIFER LEVELS SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS. WATER LEVELS IN THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER REMAINED AT OR NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS. ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED QUITE LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WERE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER TABLES...WHICH NORMALLY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT GROUND WATER LEVELS IN 89 MONITORED WELLS FELL BY AN AVERAGE OF 0.25 FEET LAST MONTH. 38 WELLS SET NEW MONTHLY LOWS FOR AUGUST...AND SEVEN WELLS SET NEW HISTORIC LOWS. LEVELS REMAIN EXTREMELY LOW WITH 75 PERCENT BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES/FIRE DANGER RANGED FROM 400 TO 600/MODERATE TO VERY HIGH THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE INLAND PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND...AND 200 TO 400/LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF GULF AND FRANKLIN. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM VERY SHORT TO ADEQUATE...WITH A FEW SPOTS OF SURPLUS SUPPLY. PEANUT HARVESTING CONTINUED AT A RAPID PACE. IN JACKSON COUNTY...YIELDS VARIED FROM FAIR TO GOOD WITH SOME SEVERE LEAF SPOT. IN WASHINGTON COUNTY...EARLY PEANUTS WERE IN FAIR CONDITION WITH YIELDS OFF 200 TO 500 POUNDS PER ACRE...WHILE LATE PEANUTS WERE IN VERY POOR CONDITION. IN JEFFERSON COUNTY...YIELDS WERE NOT CONSISTENT DUE TO LATE PLANTING WITH MOST ACREAGE NOT YET MATURE. COTTON PICKING AND BALING OPERATIONS CONTINUED. SEVERAL PANHANDLE VEGETABLE GROWERS EXPERIENCED WHITE FLY INFESTATION IN FIELDS. PASTURE CONDITIONS WERE POOR TO EXCELLENT. HAY HARVESTING WAS DELAYED DUE TO DAILY RAINFALL. LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS WERE FAIR TO GOOD. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM VERY SHORT TO ADEQUATE. CROPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD CONDITION DUE TO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE PAST WEEK. THERE WERE REPORTS OF WHITEFLIES IN GREEN BEANS AND ARMYWORMS IN PASTURES AND HAY FIELDS. PRODUCERS CONTINUED TO PLANT SMALL GRAINS AND PASTURES FOR WINTER GRAZING. THE PECAN CROP WAS IN GOOD CONDITION...AND HAY WAS IN POOR TO VERY POOR CONDITION. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOIL MOISTURE WAS SHORT TO VERY SHORT. PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS WERE POOR TO VERY POOR. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DID LITTLE TO IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE CORN HARVEST WAS COMPLETED IN MOST AREAS DURING THE PAST WEEK. PRODUCERS WERE BUSY IN HAY FIELDS WHERE SUFFICIENT PRODUCTION WARRANTED HARVESTING. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. THE DISTRICT IS ENTERING THE DRY SEASON WITH EXTREMELY LOW SURFACE AND GROUND WATER LEVELS AND A LARGE ANNUAL RAINFALL DEFICIT. VOLUNTARY WATER CONSERVATION ACTIONS ARE RECOMMENDED. THERE ARE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...NO WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED OCTOBER 9 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER 15-19 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AREAWIDE. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED OCTOBER 9 FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER 17-23 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK ISSUED SEPTEMBER 30 FOR OCTOBER PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. FINALLY...THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER-DECEMBER PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. DESPITE THE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT IN THE CURRENT DROUGHT...COMPLETE ERADICATION OF THE DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY AS RAINFALL DEFICITS ACCUMULATED SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR HAVE EXCEEDED A FOOT AT MANY LOCATIONS. LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. RECENT EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. TYPICALLY...LA NINA BRINGS A WARMER AND DRIER COOL SEASON (OCTOBER THROUGH MARCH) TO THE REGION. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LA NINA...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND POSSIBLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WINTER AND INTO NEXT SPRING. IF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OCCURS DURING THE UPCOMING COOL SEASON...MOISTURE RECHARGE OF GROUND WATER... SOILS...PONDS AND RESERVOIRS WILL BE LIMITED. FARMERS WHO PLAN TO PLANT WINTER FORAGE AND DO NOT HAVE IRRIGATION CAPABILITY ARE AT RISK OF BEING SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THE WINTER DROUGHT. ALSO...THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING WILDFIRE SEASON. NOTE: DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA...AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI