000 FGUS72 KTAE 040219 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-090000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1015 PM EDT TUE OCT 3 2006 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA IMPROVE TO MODERATE DROUGHT... ...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST ELSEWHERE... SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS WAS REPLACED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS PATTERN ALLOWED A FEW COLD FRONTS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THE RESULTANT RAINFALL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WAS SCATTERED BUT AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM A HALF INCH OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TO NEARLY FIVE INCHES OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL WAS REPORTED DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH OCTOBER 2 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH OCTOBER 2. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 34.85 52.24 -17.39 67 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 2.09 5.25 - 3.16 40 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 28.01 45.57 -17.56 61 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 6.62 7.47 - 0.85 89 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 29.82 52.96 -23.14 56 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 4.98 6.43 - 1.45 77 PERRY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 30.06 48.83 -18.77 62 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 3.84 5.43 - 1.59 71 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 32.90 46.91 -14.01 70 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 2.20 4.34 - 2.14 51 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 33.74 43.54 - 9.80 75 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 3.94 3.95 - 0.01 99 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 30.57 37.64 - 7.07 81 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 5.24 3.99 1.25 131 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... MOST AREA RIVERS REMAINED WELL BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE FLOOD STAGES. IN COMPARISON...FLOWS ON MOST RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE 2004. STREAMFLOWS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA VARIED FROM 10 TO 24 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH 25 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...FLOWS WERE RANGED FROM 10 TO 24 PERCENT OF NORMAL TO WELL BELOW (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) NORMAL. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE WERE RUNNING QUITE LOW. A FEW WELLS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ARE LOWER THAN THOSE RECORDED DURING THE FALL OF 2004. WITH SLIM CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS RANGED FROM 600-700 ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INLAND AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...450-550 OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND 500-650 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL DROPPED VALUES INTO THE 300-400 CATEGORY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. FIRE DANGER RATINGS RANGED HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...TO LOW TO MODERATE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA ALLOWED PRODUCERS TO HARVEST THEIR SUMMER CROPS...AND BEGIN PLANTING FALL CROPS. ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...RAINFALL IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE TO ADEQUATE LEVELS. HOWEVER...OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS SHORT. GRASS GROWTH WAS LIMITED BY MOISTURE SHORTAGE AND PASTURES WERE POOR TO FAIR. ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...RAINFALL WAS GENERALLY LIGHT. LATE PLANTED AND IRRIGATED FIELDS WERE IN GOOD CONDITION. LAND PREPARATION FOR FALL CROPS WAS UNDERWAY. THE WINTER HAY SUPPLY REMAINED SHORT. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED OCTOBER 3 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD FROM OCTOBER 9-13. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED OCTOBER 3 FOR THE PERIOD FROM OCTOBER 11-17 PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WHERE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT YEAR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING TO A MODERATE EL NINO BY THE END OF THE YEAR. TYPICALLY EL NINO EFFECTS PRODUCE WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PERIOD FROM LATE NOVEMBER TO JANUARY. IN FACT...THE CPC SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FROM NOVEMBER 2006 THROUGH JANUARY 2007 PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED OCTOBER 18. $$ JAMSKI