000 FGUS72 KTAE 271712 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-040000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 110 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT PERSISTS IN A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH EXTREME DROUGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA... ...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SYNOPSIS... DURING THE PERIOD OF SEPTEMBER 15-20...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE QUARTER TO ONE INCH RANGE. ON SEPTEMBER 21-22...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 AFFECTED MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER... THE LION'S SHARE OF ITS RAINS FELL OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WITH TWO TO THREE INCHES OBSERVED. FROM SEPTEMBER 23-26...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE PRODUCED AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH. OVERALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD ENDING SEPTEMBER 26 VARIED FROM HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...TO THREE TO FIVE INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES. ANNUAL RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL FOR THE TALLAHASSEE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA RANGED FROM 8 TO 26 INCHES. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 26 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE SHOWN FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 26. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 35.77 51.47 -15.70 69 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 4.35 4.48 -0.13 97 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 27.89 44.40 -16.51 63 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 9.14 6.30 2.84 145 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 26.01 52.03 -26.02 50 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 4.44 5.50 -1.06 81 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 24.32 45.15 -20.83 54 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 1.20 2.55 -1.35 47 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 23.90 49.36 -25.46 48 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 5.51 5.52 -0.01 99 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 37.86 46.26 -8.40 82 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 3.73 3.69 0.04 101 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 26.85 42.75 -15.90 63 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 1.90 3.21 -1.31 59 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 31.85 42.95 -11.10 74 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 4.27 3.36 0.91 127 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... WELL BELOW NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS CONTINUED IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLOWS WERE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW THE 6TH PERCENTILE. ON SEPTEMBER 18...NEW RECORD LOW FLOWS WERE ESTABLISHED AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: APALACHICOLA RIVER AT CHATTAHOOCHEE (JACKSON COUNTY)...CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR ALTHA (CALHOUN COUNTY)...TELOGIA CREEK NEAR BRISTOL (LIBERTY COUNTY) AND ECONFINA CREEK NEAR BENNETT (BAY COUNTY). STREAM AND RIVER FLOWS IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WERE IN THE 3RD TO 15TH PERCENTILE RANGE. FLOWS CONTINUED AT BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASINS. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... GROUND WATER LEVELS MAINTAINED A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE. RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON THE AQUIFER LEVELS...WHICH REMAINED UNCHANGED. WATER LEVELS IN THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER REMAINED AT OR NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS. ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED QUITE LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WERE AT THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER TABLES...WHICH NORMALLY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. VERY LOW GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WITH SEVERAL MONITORING WELLS AT OR APPROACHING MONTHLY RECORD LOWS. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES/FIRE DANGER RANGED FROM 500 TO 600/HIGH TO VERY HIGH THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...400 TO 600/MODERATE TO VERY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND...AND 200 TO 400/LOW TO MODERATE OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF GULF AND FRANKLIN. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM SHORT TO ADEQUATE. PASTURE CONDITIONS IMPROVED FOLLOWING THE RECENT RAINS...BUT MOST STOCK PONDS WERE DRY. HAY STOCKS REMAINED LOW. PEANUT HARVESTING INCREASED IN JACKSON COUNTY...WITH SPIDER MITES AND FOLIAGE FEEDING WORMS CAUSING PROBLEMS IN SOME FIELDS. CORN HARVESTING DELAYS WERE CAUSED BY THE LACK OF LOCAL GRAIN STORAGE FACILITIES. IN JEFFERSON COUNTY...THE PECAN CROP WAS IN GOOD CONDITION BUT NEEDED MORE RAINS FOR NUTS TO FILL. THE CATTLE CONDITION RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM VERY SHORT TO ADEQUATE. WHERE RAINS DID NOT FALL THE PAST WEEK...PRODUCERS BEGAN HARVESTING PEANUTS AND COTTON DEFOLIATION WAS UNDERWAY. THE COTTON FIELDS RANGED FROM POOR WHERE MOISTURE WAS SHORT...TO GOOD WHERE MOISTURE WAS ADEQUATE. WITH THE RECENT RAINS...COTTON PRODUCERS WERE CONCERNED ABOUT COTTON BOLL ROT. CORN YIELDS HAVE BEEN GOOD. PECAN TREE LIMBS WERE BREAKING FROM THIS YEAR'S LARGE CROP. PRODUCERS PREPARED TO PLANT PASTURES FOR WINTER GRAZING AND SMALL GRAINS. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOIL MOISTURE WAS SHORT TO VERY SHORT. PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS WERE POOR TO VERY POOR. RECENT RAINS THE PAST WEEK HAVE GREENED UP PASTURES...SOME NATURAL WATER SOURCES SUCH AS CREEKS AND PONDS WERE STILL DRY. HAY SUPPLIES RANGED FROM ONE-THIRD TO ONE-HALF OF NORMAL. SOME CATTLEMEN PLANTED WINTER FORAGE...AND WERE COUNTING ON RYE GRASS MIXES TO REDUCE THE NEED FOR HAY. OTHERS PURCHASED HAY FROM OUTSIDE SOURCES AT FAIRLY HIGH COSTS. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...WITH VOLUNTARY WATER CONSERVATION ACTIONS REQUESTED. THERE ARE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...NO WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL GEORGIA COUNTIES. THE FIRE ALERT FOR COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WAS RESCINDED ON SEPTEMBER 21. PERSONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS WHEN BURNING. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED SEPTEMBER 26 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER 2-6 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHILE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IS PREDICTED FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED SEPTEMBER 26 FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER 4-10 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK ISSUED SEPTEMBER 20 FOR OCTOBER PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. FINALLY...THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER-DECEMBER PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLE...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. DESPITE THE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT IN THE CURRENT DROUGHT...COMPLETE ERADICATION OF THE DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY AS RAINFALL DEFICITS ACCUMULATED SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR HAVE EXCEEDED A FOOT AT MANY LOCATIONS. LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. RECENT EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. TYPICALLY...LA NINA BRINGS A WARMER AND DRIER COOL SEASON (OCTOBER THROUGH MARCH) TO THE REGION. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LA NINA...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND POSSIBLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WINTER AND INTO NEXT SPRING. IF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OCCURS DURING THE UPCOMING COOL SEASON...MOISTURE RECHARGE OF GROUND WATER... SOILS...PONDS AND RESERVOIRS WILL BE LIMITED. FARMERS WHO PLAN TO PLANT WINTER FORAGE AND DO NOT HAVE IRRIGATION CAPABILITY WILL HAVE A HIGH RISK OF BEING SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THE WINTER DROUGHT. ALSO...THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING WILDFIRE SEASON. NOTE: DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA...AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI