000 FGUS72 KTAE 170400 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-250000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1200 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...EXTREME DROUGHT EXISTS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDED MINOR IMPROVEMENT TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT DURING THE PAST WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST BIG BEND... HALF INCH TO AN INCH ACROSS THE INLAND PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...ONE TO TWO INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ANNUAL RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL FOR THE TALLAHASSEE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA RANGED FROM 10 TO 26 INCHES. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 15 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE SHOWN FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 15. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 34.83 49.77 -14.94 70 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 3.41 2.78 0.63 123 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 25.07 41.85 -16.78 60 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 6.32 3.75 2.57 169 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 24.99 49.91 -24.92 50 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 3.42 3.38 0.04 101 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 24.32 45.15 -20.83 54 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 1.20 2.55 -1.35 47 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 21.55 47.71 -26.16 45 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 3.16 3.55 -0.39 89 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 34.75 44.80 -10.05 78 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 1.69 2.23 -0.54 76 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 25.81 41.48 -15.67 62 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 0.86 1.94 -1.08 44 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 30.37 41.61 -11.24 73 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 2.79 2.02 0.77 138 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... WELL BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOWS CONTINUED IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...FLOWS CONTINUED AT BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... GROUND WATER LEVELS MAINTAINED A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE. SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL STABILIZED OR INCREASED AQUIFER LEVELS IN A FEW AREAS. WATER LEVELS IN THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER REMAINED AT OR NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS. ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED QUITE LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WERE AT THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER TABLES...WHICH NORMALLY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. VERY LOW GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT DURING THE PAST WEEK...WITH SEVERAL MONITORING WELLS AT OR APPROACHING NEW MONTHLY RECORD LOWS. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI)/FIRE DANGER RANGED FROM 450 TO 600/MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...TOPSOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM VERY SHORT TO ADEQUATE. PASTURE CONDITIONS RANGED FROM VERY POOR TO EXCELLENT. CATTLE PONDS WERE EXTREMELY LOW AND VERY LITTLE HAY WAS HARVESTED. HAY FIELDS IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WERE SPRAYED RIGOROUSLY TO CONTROL ARMYWORMS. MOST AREAS IN JACKSON COUNTY REMAINED DRY WITH PEANUT HARVESTING EXPECTED TO BE LATE. DESPITE IRRIGATED CORN YIELDS IN GOOD CONDITION...THE HIGH COST OF IRRIGATION WAS OFFSETTING RECORD CORN PRICES WITH GROWERS HOPING TO BREAK EVEN. THE LIVESTOCK CONDITION WAS GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...TOPSOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM VERY SHORT TO ADEQUATE. CROP CONDITIONS VARIED WIDELY...FROM SLOWED DEVELOPMENT OF PEANUTS...COTTON AND SOYBEANS IN DRY AREAS...TO GOOD CROPS WITH BETTER SOIL MOISTURE. IRRIGATED CORN WAS YIELDING WELL. THERE WERE REPORTS OF ARMYWORMS ATTACKING PASTURES AND HAYFIELDS. WHITEFLIES WERE A CONCERN FOR COTTON FARMERS. LAST MONTH'S HEAT WAVE SET BACK MOST TRANSPLANTED VEGETABLES...HOWEVER GROWTH WAS OCCURRING WITH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS SHORT TO VERY SHORT. PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS WERE POOR TO VERY POOR. A WEEK OF RAINFALL IN ISOLATED AREAS OFFERED SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT. HAY WAS A SCARCE COMMODITY. WATER FOR LIVESTOCK WAS VERY CRITICAL IN SOME AREAS AS STREAMS AND PONDS WERE BONE DRY. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...WITH VOLUNTARY WATER CONSERVATION ACTIONS REQUESTED. THERE ARE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...NO WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GEORGIA. A FIRE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY AND HOUSTON. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED SEPTEMBER 16 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 22-26 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED SEPTEMBER 16 FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 24-30 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK ISSUED AUGUST 31 FOR SEPTEMBER PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. FINALLY...THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS...COMPLETE ERADICATION OF THE DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY AS RAINFALL DEFICITS ACCUMULATED SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR HAVE EXCEEDED A FOOT AT MANY LOCATIONS. LAST MONTH...NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC EXPANDED FROM THE WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. CONSISTENT WITH THIS ADDITIONAL COOLING...THREE OF THE NINO INDICES REMAINED COOLER THAN -0.5 DEGREES CELSIUS LAST MONTH. NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) MODELS SIGNAL THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF LA NINA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FALL AND WINTER MONTHS. TYPICALLY...LA NINA BRINGS A WARMER AND DRIER COOL SEASON (OCTOBER THROUGH MARCH) TO THE REGION. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LA NINA...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WINTER AND INTO NEXT SPRING. IF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OCCURS DURING THE UPCOMING COOL SEASON...MOISTURE RECHARGE OF GROUNDWATER...SOILS...PONDS AND RESERVOIRS WILL BE LIMITED. FARMERS WHO PLAN TO PLANT WINTER FORAGE AND DO NOT HAVE IRRIGATION CAPABILITY WILL HAVE A HIGH RISK OF BEING SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THE WINTER DROUGHT. ALSO...THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING WILDFIRE SEASON. NOTE: DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA...AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI