000 FGUS72 KTAE 131804 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-180000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 200 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE... SYNOPSIS... DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES PROVIDED SHORT TERM DROUGHT RELIEF TO MOST OF THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA VARIED FROM NEAR A THIRD OF AN INCH AT THE TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL AIRPORT TO JUST OVER SIX INCHES AT APALACHICOLA. ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...A HALF TO ON INCH WAS COMMON. OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AMOUNTS RANGED FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO NEARLY THREE INCHES. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 12 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 12. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 33.07 49.26 -16.19 67 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 0.31 2.27 - 1.96 14 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 26.57 41.10 -14.53 65 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 5.18 3.00 2.18 172 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 24.48 49.26 -24.78 50 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 0.28 2.73 - 2.45 10 PERRY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 26.59 46.55 -19.96 57 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 0.37 3.15 - 2.78 12 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 31.42 44.37 -12.95 71 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 0.72 1.80 - 1.08 40 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 30.84 41.22 -10.38 75 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 1.04 1.63 - 0.59 64 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 29.90 34.58 - 4.58 86 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 4.57 1.65 2.92 277 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... MOST AREA RIVERS REMAINED BELOW NORMAL. RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINS HAVE SLOWED THE DECLINE OR CAUSED MINOR RISES AT SOME LOCATIONS...WHILE OTHERS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY EBB. IN COMPARISON...FLOWS ON MOST RIVERS HAVE RECEDED TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE 2004. STREAM LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WERE 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AVERAGED 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND INLAND PANHANDLE WERE STILL RUNNING LOW. A FEW WELLS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ARE LOWER THAN THOSE RECORDED DURING THE FALL OF 2004. RUNOFF AND INFILTRATION FROM RECENT RAINS HAVE REPLENISHED GROUND WATER LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...WHILE THOSE THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINED DRY. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS RANGED FROM 550-650 ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INLAND AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...500-600 OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND 400-500 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL DROPPED VALUES INTO THE 300-400 CATEGORY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND. FIRE DANGER RATINGS RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...TO LOW-MODERATE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... CROP MOISTURE INDICES FOR THE WEEK ENDING SEPTEMBER 9 INDICATED NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED. RAINFALL WAS SPOTTY OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. TOP SOIL MOISTURE AVERAGED 80 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT ACROSS THE STATE. BENEFICIAL RAINS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MISSED SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SCATTERED SHOWERS DID HELP PASTURES AND HAYFIELDS GREEN UP. MORE RAINFALL WILL BE CRITICAL TO REPLENISH HAY RESERVES FOR THE WINTER. ACROSS THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...GROWERS NEED MORE RAIN TO CUT THE REMAINING 50 PERCENT OF THEIR HAY YIELDS. PASTURE CONDITIONS RANGED FROM POOR IN THE PANHANDLE TO FAIR IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. TOP SOIL OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WAS ABOUT 40 PERCENT SHORT. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED SEPTEMBER 12 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD FROM SEPTEMBER 18-22. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD FROM SEPTEMBER 20-26. FINALLY...THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER PREDICTS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. THE CPC REPORTED TODAY THAT WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY 2007. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING TO A MODERATE EL NINO BY THE END OF THE YEAR. TYPICALLY EL NINO EFFECTS PRODUCE WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA. AN UPDATED EL NINO DISCUSSION IS SCHEDULED FOR OCTOBER 5. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED SEPTEMBER 27. $$ JAMSKI