000 FGUS72 KTAE 021532 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-100000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 2 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...MODERATE DROUGHT EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO PROVIDE TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST WEEK. WEEKLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS (DEFICIT-/SURPLUS+) RANGED FROM LESS THAN AN INCH (UP TO -2 INCHES) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST CORNER OF GEORGIA...TO 2 TO 4 INCHES (UP TO +2 INCHES) FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. ANNUAL RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL ACROSS THE TALLAHASSEE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA VARIED FROM 9 TO 25 INCHES. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH AUGUST 31 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 1 THROUGH AUGUST 31. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 31.42 45.54 -15.57 69 SINCE JUNE 1 21.33 21.99 -0.66 97 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 18.75 38.10 -19.35 49 SINCE JUNE 1 7.07 17.21 -11.83 41 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 21.57 46.53 -24.96 46 SINCE JUNE 1 8.49 22.27 -13.78 38 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 23.12 42.60 -19.48 54 SINCE JUNE 1 12.87 17.54 -4.67 73 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 18.39 43.84 -25.45 42 SINCE JUNE 1 12.82 24.93 -12.11 51 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 33.06 42.57 -9.51 78 SINCE JUNE 1 14.20 15.66 -1.46 91 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 24.95 39.54 -14.59 63 SINCE JUNE 1 13.24 15.18 -1.94 87 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 27.58 39.59 -12.01 70 SINCE JUNE 1 15.20 15.58 -0.38 98 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOWS CONTINUED IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. FLOWS BELOW THE 5TH PERCENTILE WERE OBSERVED LAST MONTH ON THE FLINT...WITHLACOOCHEE AND ALAPAHA RIVER BASINS. ICHAWAYNOCHAWAY CREEK AT MILFORD IN BAKER COUNTY GEORGIA SET A RECORD LOW FLOW OF 43 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND ON AUGUST 30. STREAM FLOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUED TO FALL...WITH MOST MONITORED SITES BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. RECORD LOW FLOWS WERE ESTABLISHED AT LITTLE RIVER NEAR MIDWAY IN GADSDEN COUNTY...CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR ALTHA IN CALHOUN COUNTY...AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE IN WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA. ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...FLOWS CONTINUED AT BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. FLOWS BELOW THE 5TH PERCENTILE WERE OBSERVED LAST MONTH IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUWANNEE RIVER AND STEINHATCHEE RIVER BASINS. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... GROUND WATER LEVELS MAINTAINED A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL STABILIZED OR INCREASED AQUIFER LEVELS IN A FEW AREAS. WATER LEVELS FOR THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER REMAINED AT OR NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS. ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED VERY LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WERE AT THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER TABLES...WHICH NORMALLY OCCUR IN THE LATE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. VERY LOW GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT IN AUGUST...WITH MANY MONITORING WELLS AT OR APPROACHING NEW MONTHLY RECORD LOWS. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI)/FIRE DANGER RANGED FROM 600 TO 700/HIGH TO VERY HIGH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...450 TO 550/MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND 450 TO 600/MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS SHORT TO ADEQUATE. IN JACKSON COUNTY...A SMALL ACREAGE OF PEANUTS WAS DUG WITH NO YIELDS. POTENTIAL YIELDS OF SOME COTTON FIELDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN DRASTICALLY AFFECTED BY THE HEAT AND GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL. HAY GROWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GET ONLY ONE HAY CUTTING DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS. PASTURE CONDITIONS VARIED FROM VERY POOR TO GOOD. STOCK POND WATER LEVELS WERE DOWN OR DRY. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS SHORT TO VERY SHORT...WITH A FEW AREAS OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. CROP CONDITIONS WERE QUITE POOR DUE TO THE DROUGHT. COTTON...SOYBEANS AND PEANUTS WERE PARTICULARLY STRESSED BY THE LACK OF MOISTURE. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS VERY SHORT TO SHORT. CORN AND SOYBEAN HARVEST YIELDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS WERE STILL FACING SEVERE FORAGE SHORTAGES DUE TO THE DROUGHT. MANY HERDS WERE LIQUIDATED AND OTHERS WILL BE SOLD IF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT COMMENCE SOON. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...WITH VOLUNTARY WATER CONSERVATION ACTIONS REQUESTED. THERE ARE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...NO WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GEORGIA. ON AUGUST 31...THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION DOWNGRADED THE DROUGHT EMERGENCY/NO BURN ORDER TO A FIRE ALERT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY AND HOUSTON. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED SEPTEMBER 1 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 7-11 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL IS PREDICTED. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED SEPTEMBER 1 FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 9-15 CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IS PREDICTED. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. FINALLY...THE THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. DESPITE THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK INDICATING IMPROVEMENT FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST...COMPLETE ERADICATION OF THE DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY AS RAINFALL DEFICITS ACCUMULATED SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR HAVE EXCEEDED A FOOT AT MANY LOCATIONS. CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CONDITIONS REMAIN AT NEUTRAL LEVELS...BUT ARE TRENDING TOWARD LA NINA. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN ENSO PREDICTIONS...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EITHER A SLOWER EVOLUTION TOWARD LA NINA OR A CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS INTO THE FALL MONTHS. NOTE THAT DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... CARRIBEAN SEA...AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI