000 FGUS72 KTAE 272347 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-310000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 745 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT NORTHERN FLORIDA... SYNOPSIS... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE PAST THREE WEEKS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE SEA BREEZES WERE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...A FEW WEAK FRONTS WERE ABLE TO PENETRATE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...ENHANCING THE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AVERAGED FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND RECEIVED AS MUCH AS SIX INCHES. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH AUGUST 26 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 1 THROUGH AUGUST 26. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 32.71 45.96 -13.25 71 SINCE JUNE 1 17.59 20.96 - 3.37 84 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 20.51 36.89 -16.38 56 SINCE JUNE 1 7.99 17.69 - 9.70 45 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 21.40 45.38 -23.98 47 SINCE JUNE 1 9.05 21.12 -12.07 43 PERRY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 26.20 42.22 -16.02 62 SINCE JUNE 1 13.35 21.45 - 8.10 62 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 30.52 41.82 -11.30 73 SINCE JUNE 1 10.80 14.91 - 4.11 72 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 29.54 38.94 -11.50 76 SINCE JUNE 1 14.11 14.93 - 2.92 95 QUITMAN GA SINCE JANUARY 1 25.65 38.00 -12.35 68 SINCE JUNE 1 10.92 15.68 - 4.76 70 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... MOST AREA RIVERS REMAINED WELL BELOW NORMAL. RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINS HAVE SLOWED THE DECLINE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WHILE OTHERS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RECEDE. IN COMPARISON...FLOWS ON MOST RIVERS HAVE RECEDED TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE 2004...WITH SOME APPROACHING THEIR RECORD LOWEST LEVELS REACHED IN 2000 AND 2002. STREAMFLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WERE IN THE 10TH-24TH PERCENTILE...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE 25TH-74TH PERCENTILE. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... MANY CREEKS AND STREAMS WERE RUNNING LOW. A FEW WELLS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA ARE LOWER THAN THOSE RECORDED DURING THE FALL OF 2004. RUNOFF AND INFILTRATION FROM RECENT RAINS HAVE REPLENISHED GROUND WATER LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...WHILE THOSE THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAIN RATHER DRY. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) RANGED FROM 500-600 ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...600-700 ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...500-600 OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND 400-500 OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. FIRE DANGER RATINGS WERE IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH CATEGORY OVER ALL EXCEPT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE A LOW TO MODERATE CATEGORY PREVAILED. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... DESPITE SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL ALLEVIATING SOME OF THE STRESS ON PASTURE AND CROPS...TOP SOIL MOISTURE AVERAGED ABOUT 70 PERCENT SHORT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. SCATTERED RAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND HELPED PASTURE GROWTH SLIGHTLY BUT STOCK POND WATER LEVELS REMAINED LOW. TOP SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AVERAGED ABOUT 50 PERCENT. OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...BETTER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ALLOWED SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN CROP AND PASTURE CONDITIONS. TOP SOIL MOISTURE AVERAGED ABOUT 60 PERCENT SHORT. POND LEVELS REMAINED BELOW NORMAL. MOST HAYFIELDS WERE IN POOR CONDITION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE CRITICAL IN ORDER TO REPLENISH HAY RESERVES FOR THE WINTER MONTHS AHEAD. DAILY PAN EVAPORATION RATES THROUGHOUT THE REGION VARIED FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH. OUTLOOK... NOTE: DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF ERNESTO...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA MAY RECEIVE MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED AUGUST 27 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FOR THE PERIOD FROM SEPTEMBER 2-6. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE PERIOD FROM SEPTEMBER 4-10. FINALLY...THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA...THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED SEPTEMBER 10. $$ JAMSKI