000
FGUS72 KTAE 271729
ESFTAE

ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-
073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-
095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-
281045-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1251 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM HURRICANE KATRINA AFTER LANDFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

HURRICANE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ONSHORE IN THE MIDDLE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AS A CATEGORY FOUR STORM.  

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK IS WELL WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREAS...FEEDER BAND ACTIVITY IS STILL A
POTENTIAL AFTER KATRINA MOVES ASHORE.  HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
RAINBANDS ARE KNOWN TO OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF LAND FALLING
TROPICAL CYCLONES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...NORTHWARD MOVING FEEDERBANDS
MAY GENERATE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE BANDS MAY
WELL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AS WELL AS THE REMAINS OF
HURRICANE KATRINA BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. IF ECHO TRAINING
OCCURS...AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND 1
TO 2 INCHES IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF
KATRINA.

THOUGH SURFICIAL SOILS ARE WET ACROSS THE AREA AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL IN THE RIVERS.

AT MOST...ONLY MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA DUE TO RAINFALL FROM HURRICANE
KATRINA.

THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD ACTIVITY WILL BE DUE TO RAPID
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ON SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS AND URBAN
AREAS FROM LOCALIZED RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING
FEEDERBANDS.

ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS SUCH AS A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.


52-LANIER
$$