000 FGUS72 KTAE 250946 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-020000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 545 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...MODERATE DROUGHT EXISTS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDED SOME RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER THE GULF COASTAL COUNTIES AND EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN AN AREAS FROM THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ALABAMA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ANNUAL RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS THE TALLAHASSEE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA VARIED FROM 9 TO 24 INCHES. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH AUGUST 24 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 1 THROUGH AUGUST 24. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 29.81 45.54 -15.73 65 SINCE JUNE 1 19.72 20.54 -0.82 96 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 18.45 36.41 -17.96 51 SINCE JUNE 1 6.77 17.21 -10.44 39 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 21.27 44.92 -23.65 47 SINCE JUNE 1 8.19 20.66 -12.47 40 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 21.51 41.44 -19.93 52 SINCE JUNE 1 11.26 16.38 -5.12 69 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 16.58 41.83 -25.25 40 SINCE JUNE 1 11.01 22.92 -11.91 48 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 31.69 41.53 -9.84 76 SINCE JUNE 1 12.83 14.62 -1.79 88 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 22.17 38.63 -16.46 57 SINCE JUNE 1 10.46 14.27 -3.81 73 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 26.26 38.68 -12.42 68 SINCE JUNE 1 13.88 14.67 -0.79 95 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOWS CONTINUED IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. FLOWS BELOW THE 5TH PERCENTILE WERE OBSERVED LAST MONTH IN THE WITHLACOOCHEE AND ALAPAHA RIVERS. STREAM FLOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUED TO FALL...WITH MOST MONITORED SITES BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. RECORD LOW FLOWS WERE ESTABLISHED AT LITTLE RIVER NEAR MIDWAY IN GADSDEN COUNTY...CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR ALTHA IN CALHOUN COUNTY...AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE IN WALTON COUNTY. ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...FLOWS CONTINUED AT BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. FLOWS BELOW THE 5TH PERCENTILE WERE OBSERVED LAST MONTH IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUWANNEE RIVER AND STEINHATCHEE RIVER. THE SUWANNEE RIVER AT ELLAVILLE FELL TO NEW HISTORICAL LOW LEVELS...AND A NEW RECORD LOW FOR JULY WAS ESTABLISHED FOR THE ECONFINA RIVER NEAR PERRY. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUED A STEADY DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA. LOCALIZED RAINFALL STABILIZED OR INCREASED AQUIFER LEVELS SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS. WATER LEVELS FOR THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER REMAINED AT OR NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS. ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED QUITE LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WERE AT OR NEAR THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER LEVELS...WHICH NORMALLY OCCUR IN THE LATE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. EXTREMELY LOW GROUND WATER LEVELS WERE RECORDED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT IN JULY...WITH 16 MONITORING WELLS DROPPING TO HISTORIC LOWS AND 34 WELLS EXPERIENCING NEW MONTHLY RECORD LOWS. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI)/FIRE DANGER RANGED FROM 600 TO 700/HIGH TO VERY HIGH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...450 TO 550/MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND 500 TO 650/HIGH ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS SHORT TO ADEQUATE. HAYMAKING WAS ACTIVE...HOWEVER A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HAY FIELDS WERE NOT GROWING DUE TO THE DROUGHT. SOYBEAN RUST WAS VISUALLY IDENTIFIED IN A FEW JEFFERSON COUNTY FIELDS. SUBSOIL WAS MOSTLY VERY SHORT TO SHORT IN THE PANHANDLE. JACKSON COUNTY REPORTED A FEW LOCALITIES WITH SURPLUS SOIL MOISTURE. PASTURE CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY FAIR. RECENT RAINS IMPROVED GROWING CONDITIONS FOR FORAGE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT GRASS WAS SHORT AND STOCK PONDS WERE GOING DRY AGAIN. THE CONDITION OF LIVESTOCK WAS GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS SHORT TO VERY SHORT...WITH A FEW AREAS OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE. MANY PASTURES AND HAY FIELDS WERE DRYING UP DUE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND EVAPORATION RATES. LATE-PLANTED CORN WAS TASSELING AND NEEDED RAIN. INSECT AND WORM PRESSURE INCREASED IN COTTON...PEANUTS AND PASTURES. SOME TOMATO SPOTTED WILT VIRUS WAS OBSERVED IN PEANUTS. THE CORN HARVEST WAS UNDERWAY AND SOME EXCELLENT YIELDS WERE REPORTED. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS VERY SHORT TO SHORT. THE CROP PROGRESS THAT WAS MADE AFTER THE TIMELY JULY RAINFALL DETERIORATED QUICKLY DUE TO THE HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS MONTH. SEVERAL PONDS HAD DRIED UP. OTHER NATURAL WATER SOURCES WERE EXTREMELY LOW. AREA LIVESTOCK FOUND LITTLE FORAGE TO GRAZE...AND SPENT MOST OF THEIR TIME IN AVAILABLE SHADE. THE CONDITION OF LIVESTOCK WAS POOR TO VERY POOR. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...WITH VOLUNTARY WATER CONSERVATION ACTIONS REQUESTED. THERE ARE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...NO WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GEORGIA. THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION ISSUED A DROUGHT EMERGENCY/NO BURN ORDER ON AUGUST 16 FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY AND HOUSTON. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED AUGUST 24 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3 CALLS FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED AUGUST 24 FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 1-7 CALLS FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER ISSUED AUGUST 16 PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. FINALLY...THE THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK ISSUED AUGUST 16 FOR SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. DESPITE THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK INDICATING IMPROVEMENT FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST...COMPLETE ERADICATION OF THE DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY AS RAINFALL DEFICITS ACCUMULATED SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR HAVE EXCEEDED A FOOT AT MANY LOCATIONS. CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CONDITIONS REMAIN AT NEUTRAL LEVELS. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN ENSO PREDICTIONS...ALONG WITH THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED DECREASE IN OBSERVED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST FEW MONTHS...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EITHER A SLOWER EVOLUTION TOWARD LA NINA OR A CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS INTO THE FALL MONTHS. NOTE THAT DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... CARRIBEAN SEA...AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI