000 FGUS72 KTAE 180226 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-260000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1025 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT EXPANDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...MODERATE DROUGHT EXISTS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS OF JULY INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS GENERATED SCATTERED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM THREE TO SIX INCHES OVER THE APALACHICOLA AND SOPCHOPPY RIVER BASINS. FROM THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATED WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS...MINOR DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS PROVIDED A FEW DAYS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST AREAS RETURNED TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR DAILY RAINFALL. ANNUAL RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS THE TALLAHASSEE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA VARIED FROM 9 TO ALMOST 23 INCHES. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH AUGUST 16 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 1 THROUGH AUGUST 16. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 29.02 43.78 -14.76 66 SINCE JUNE 1 18.93 18.78 0.15 101 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 18.45 34.55 -16.10 53 SINCE JUNE 1 6.77 15.35 -8.58 44 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 20.35 43.06 -22.71 47 SINCE JUNE 1 7.27 18.80 -11.53 39 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 19.01 40.14 -21.13 47 SINCE JUNE 1 8.76 15.08 -6.32 58 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 16.58 39.33 -22.75 42 SINCE JUNE 1 11.01 20.42 -9.41 54 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 31.34 40.34 -9.00 78 SINCE JUNE 1 12.48 13.43 -0.95 93 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 20.31 37.54 -17.23 54 SINCE JUNE 1 8.60 13.18 -4.58 65 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 22.83 37.64 -14.81 61 SINCE JUNE 1 10.45 13.63 -3.18 77 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... WELL BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOWS CONTINUED OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...WITH BELOW NORMAL FLOWS THROUGHOUT MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. STREAM FLOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAVE DECLINED...WITH MOST MONITORED SITES BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. RECORD LOW FLOWS WERE ESTABLISHED AT LITTLE RIVER NEAR MIDWAY IN GADSDEN COUNTY...CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR ALTHA IN CALHOUN COUNTY...AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE IN WALTON COUNTY. ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...FLOWS CONTINUED AT BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUED A STEADY DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA. LOCAL RAINFALL HAD STABILIZED OR INCREASED AQUIFER LEVELS SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS. WATER LEVELS FOR THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER REMAINED AT OR NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS. ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAINED LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WERE APPROACHING THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER LEVELS...WHICH NORMALLY OCCUR IN THE LATE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI)/FIRE DANGER RANGED FROM 550 TO 700/HIGH TO VERY HIGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND 450 TO 550/MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOIL MOISTURE WAS VERY SHORT TO SHORT OVER THE PANHANDLE...AND SHORT TO ADEQUATE OVER THE BIG BEND. IN WASHINGTON COUNTY...PEANUT AND COTTON YIELDS WERE BELOW NORMAL. IN JACKSON COUNTY...THE PEANUT CROP HAD IMPROVED BUT NOT PEGGING AS MANY NUTS AS EXPECTED. MOST HAY PRODUCERS IN JEFFERSON COUNTY STARTED CUTTING HAY...HOWEVER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HINDERED BALING. THERE WAS A SHORT SUPPLY OF HAY FOR LIVESTOCK IN LEON AND GADSDEN COUNTIES. LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY FAIR. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE OVERALL WAS RATED SHORT TO VERY SHORT...WITH A FEW AREAS OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE. SOIL MOISTURE LOSS TO EVAPORATION AND PLANT USE AVERAGED BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH PER DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED MOISTURE STRESSED CROPS AND LIVESTOCK. THE EXTREME HEAT SLOWED PLANT GROWTH AND CAUSED PLANTS TO WILT. CORN EARWORMS WERE OBSERVED IN SOME COTTON FIELDS. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOIL MOISTURE OVERALL WAS RATED VERY SHORT TO SHORT DUE TO VERY HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND PAN EVAPORATION RATES. AS A RESULT...PASTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO SUFFER. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS SOUGHT PASTURES WITH ENOUGH FORAGE TO FEED CATTLE HERDS. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...WITH VOLUNTARY WATER CONSERVATION ACTIONS REQUESTED. THERE ARE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...NO WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITY COMPANIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GEORGIA. THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION ISSUED A DROUGHT EMERGENCY/NO BURN ORDER ON AUGUST 16 FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY AND HOUSTON. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED AUGUST 17 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD AUGUST 23-27 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED AUGUST 17 FOR THE PERIOD AUGUST 25-31 CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER ISSUED AUGUST 16 PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. FINALLY...THE THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK ISSUED AUGUST 16 FOR SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. DESPITE THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK INDICATING IMPROVEMENT FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST... COMPLETE ERADICATION OF THE DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY AS RAINFALL DEFICITS ACCUMULATED SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR HAVE EXCEEDED A FOOT AT MANY LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CONDITIONS REMAIN AT NEUTRAL LEVELS. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN ENSO PREDICTIONS...ALONG WITH THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED DECREASE IN OBSERVED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST FEW MONTHS...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EITHER A SLOWER EVOLUTION TOWARD LA NINA OR A CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS INTO THE FALL MONTHS. NOTE THAT DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... CARRIBEAN SEA...AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI