000 FGUS72 KTAE 032309 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-060000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 705 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... ...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD AVERAGED ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SEA BREEZES WERE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARIED FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH AUGUST 2 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 1 THROUGH AUGUST 2. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 27.41 40.46 -13.05 68 SINCE JUNE 1 12.29 15.46 - 3.17 83 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 17.54 31.29 -13.75 56 SINCE JUNE 1 5.02 12.09 - 7.07 42 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 17.59 39.55 -21.96 44 SINCE JUNE 1 7.07 15.29 - 8.22 46 PERRY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 23.17 35.67 -12.50 65 SINCE JUNE 1 10.32 14.90 - 4.58 69 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 27.26 38.88 -11.62 70 SINCE JUNE 1 7.54 11.25 - 3.71 67 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 24.06 35.56 -11.50 68 SINCE JUNE 1 8.63 11.55 - 2.92 75 QUITMAN GA SINCE JANUARY 1 23.80 33.91 -10.11 70 SINCE JUNE 1 9.07 11.59 - 2.52 78 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... MOST RIVERS REMAINED WELL BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RECEDE. IN COMPARISON...FLOWS ON MOST RIVERS HAVE RECEDED TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE 2004...WITH SOME APPROACHING THEIR RECORD LOWEST LEVELS REACHED IN 2000 AND 2002. THE ONLY NORMAL RIVER FLOW IN THE REGION WAS THE ST. MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT FLORIDA. STREAMFLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WERE BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE...WITH A FEW SITES IN THE 10TH-24TH PERCENTILE. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... WATER LEVELS AT SOME SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA WELLS WERE APPROACHING THEIR LOWEST VALUES SINCE 2002. MANY PONDS AND STREAMS WERE ALSO QUITE LOW. A FEW WELLS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA ARE LOWER THAN THOSE RECORDED DURING THE FALL OF 2004. GROUND WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH THE PROJECTED LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AVERAGED FROM 600-700. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...INDICES RANGED FROM 500-600. THESE INDICES ARE INDICATIVE OF A MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... WHILE SOME AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST WEEK...OVERALL CROP CONDITIONS REMAINED POOR. TOP SOIL MOISTURE HAS RECOVERED...BUT STILL AVERAGED ABOUT 50 PERCENT SHORT. THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SPOTTY RAINS AND HOT TEMPERATURES CAUSED POOR PASTURE CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY DESPITE RECENT SCATTERED SHOWERS. CROP...PASTURE AND HAYFIELD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN DUE TO THE PROLONGED HEAT AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. HAY SHORTAGE WAS CRITICAL IN SOME AREAS. DAILY PAN EVAPORATION RATES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED AUGUST 3 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE PERIOD FROM AUGUST 9 TO AUGUST 13. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE PERIOD FROM AUGUST 11 TO AUGUST 17. FINALLY...THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA...THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY AUGUST 13. $$ JAMSKI