000 FGUS72 KTAE 220232 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-240000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 ...DROUGHT POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... SYNOPSIS... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE REGION DURING THE PAST WEEK. THE RIDGE WAS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL OBSERVED. AS THE RIDGE AXIS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED SOUTH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...THIS ALLOWED WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE...RESULTING IN SCATTERED CONVECTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A TRACE AT DOTHAN TO NEARLY TWO AND A HALF INCHES AT TALLAHASSEE. THESE AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH JULY 20 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 1 THROUGH JULY 20. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 26.79 37.12 -10.33 72 SINCE JUNE 1 11.67 12.12 - 0.45 96 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 15.80 28.09 -12.29 56 SINCE JUNE 1 3.28 8.89 - 5.61 37 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 16.74 35.88 -19.14 47 SINCE JUNE 1 6.22 11.62 - 5.40 54 PERRY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 20.62 31.97 -11.35 64 SINCE JUNE 1 7.77 11.20 - 3.43 69 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 23.48 35.79 -12.31 66 SINCE JUNE 1 3.76 8.88 - 5.12 42 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 20.54 33.06 -12.52 62 SINCE JUNE 1 5.11 9.05 - 3.94 56 QUITMAN GA SINCE JANUARY 1 23.29 31.34 - 8.05 74 SINCE JUNE 1 8.58 9.02 - 0.44 95 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... MOST RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE. IN COMPARISON...FLOWS ON MOST RIVERS HAVE RECEDED TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE 2004...WITH SOME APPROACHING THEIR RECORD LOWEST LEVELS REACHED IN 2000 AND 2002. THE ONLY NORMAL RIVER FLOW OCCURRING IN THE REGION IS THE ST. MARKS RIVER AT NEWPORT FLORIDA. STREAMFLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ARE BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING IN THE 10TH-24TH PERCENTILE. OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...FLOWS RANGED FROM BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE TO LOW. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... WATER LEVELS AT SOME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WELLS ARE APPROACHING THEIR LOWEST VALUES SINCE 2002. LEVELS AT A FEW WELLS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA ARE LOWER THAN THOSE RECORDED DURING THE FALL OF 2004. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...GROUND WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RANGE FROM 600-700 OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO 700-750 OVER THE COUNTIES BORDERING ALABAMA. EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER...KBDI VARY FROM 500-700...EXCEPT FOR 400-500 VALUES ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM PERRY TO NEAR CROSS CITY. OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...KBDI OF 700-750 ARE COMMON. THESE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF A HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER. OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...A MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS...EXCEPT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR FROM TIFTON TO VALDOSTA WHERE THE FIRE DANGER IS IN THE LOW TO MODERATE CATEGORY. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE PROLONGED LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXACERBATING THE ALREADY HIGH STRESS LEVELS ON PASTURE. POOR TO VERY POOR CROP CONDITIONS EXIST OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN FACT...TOP SOIL MOISTURE IS RUNNING 95 PERCENT SHORT ACROSS ALABAMA. STOCK PONDS REMAIN VERY LOW OR DRY. OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SPOTTY SURPLUS MOISTURE HAS PASTURE CONDITIONS IN THE POOR TO FAIR CATEGORY. THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY. CATTLE PRODUCERS CONTINUE TO FEED HAY TO THEIR LIVESTOCK. IRRIGATED CROPS REMAIN IN FAIR SHAPE WHILE DRYLAND CROPS ARE IN POOR CONDITION. DAILY PAN EVAPORATION RATES ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED JULY 21 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE DURING THE PERIOD FROM JULY 27 TO JULY 31. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE PERIOD FROM JULY 29 TO AUGUST 4. FINALLY...THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA...THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED EVERY ONE TO TWO WEEKS. $$ JAMSKI