000 FGUS72 KTAE 141807 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-250000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION... SYNOPSIS... DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO PROVIDE SLIGHT DROUGHT RELIEF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AVERAGED BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS BENEFITED FROM TWO TO THREE INCHES. DESPITE THE RAINFALL...2007 DEFICITS FROM NORMAL VALUES RANGED FROM 9 TO 19 INCHES. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH JULY 13 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 1 THROUGH JULY 13. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 17.22 35.30 -18.08 49 SINCE JUNE 1 7.13 10.30 -3.17 69 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 14.47 26.38 -11.91 55 SINCE JUNE 1 2.79 7.18 -4.39 39 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 16.79 33.85 -17.06 50 SINCE JUNE 1 3.71 9.59 -5.88 39 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 14.52 33.11 -18.59 44 SINCE JUNE 1 4.64 8.15 -3.51 57 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 13.49 28.77 -15.28 47 SINCE JUNE 1 7.92 9.86 -1.94 80 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 25.57 34.46 -8.89 74 SINCE JUNE 1 6.69 7.55 -0.86 89 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 15.77 31.93 -16.16 49 SINCE JUNE 1 4.06 7.57 -3.51 54 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 17.65 31.59 -13.94 56 SINCE JUNE 1 5.27 7.58 -2.31 70 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOWS CONTINUED OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. STREAM FLOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO SPOTTY HEAVY RAINS...HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MONITORED SITES REMAIN AT OR NEAR RECORD DAILY LOW FLOWS. THESE INCLUDE THE OCHLOCKONEE...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...CHIPOLA AND SHOAL RIVERS...AND TELOGIA AND ECONFINA CREEKS. THE APALACHICOLA AND ST MARKS RIVERS AND OTHER STREAMS WITH LARGE WATERSHEDS OR SIGNIFICANT GROUND WATER CONTRIBUTIONS ARE FLOWING AT HIGHER LEVELS. ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...FLOWS WERE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES FOR THE PAST TWO WEEKS INDICATED THREE TO FOUR INCH DEFICITS REGIONWIDE. 16 MONTHS OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW GROUND WATER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA...WHICH ARE APPROACHING HISTORIC LOWS OBSERVED DURING THE PREVIOUS DROUGHT PERIOD FROM 2000-2002. CURRENT WATER LEVELS FOR THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER CONTINUE A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND...BUT ON AVERAGE REMAIN ABOUT ONE TO THREE FEET ABOVE PREVIOUS LOWS. ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS ARE APPROACHING THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER LEVELS...WHICH NORMALLY OCCUR IN THE LATE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... DURING THE PAST WEEK...SPOTTY RAINS MAINTAINED KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI)/FIRE DANGER IN THE RANGE OF 450 TO 650/MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOIL CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY SHORT TO VERY SHORT...WITH AREAS OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM BENEFICIAL SHOWERS. IN JACKSON COUNTY...ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF THE FIELD CROPS SUFFERED FROM SEVERE DROUGHT...HOWEVER RECENT RAINS INCREASED PEANUT PRODUCTION. THE DROUGHT CAUSED A SUBSTANTIAL NUT DROP FROM PECAN TREES IN JEFFERSON COUNTY. IN WASHINGTON COUNTY...MANY FIELD CROP PRODUCERS APPLIED FERTILIZER TO STIMULATE FORAGE GROWTH AND FIGHT WEEDS. PASTURE CONDITIONS RANGED FROM VERY POOR TO GOOD...WITH MOST IN FAIR CONDITION. SOME LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS SOLD CALVES EARLY TO REDUCE COWS' NEED FOR FORAGE. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE WAS RATED SHORT...WITH AREAS OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS THE PAST WEEK BENEFITED FARMERS...HOWEVER MORE RAIN IS NEEDED TO ALLEVIATE THE DROUGHT. LATE PLANTED COTTON AND PEANUTS IMPROVED. DRYLAND CORN WAS NOT FARING WELL...BUT IRRIGATED CORN WAS IN GOOD CONDITION. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOIL MOISTURE WAS RATED SHORT TO VERY SHORT... WITH SOME AREAS OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE FROM SPOTTY RAINS. CROPS BEGAN TO SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS WERE NOTICED IN LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS AS PASTURES STARTED TO GREEN UP. COTTON CROPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH QUALITY BOLLS EVEN WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. SEVERAL CATTLEMEN HAVE SOLD CATTLE DUE TO THE LACK OF HAY AND HIGH COST OF FEED. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...WITH VOLUNTARY WATER CONSERVATION ACTIONS REQUESTED. THERE ARE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT. A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...NO WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GEORGIA. WATER CONSERVATION ORDINANCES AND FIRE BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR COFFEE COUNTY ALABAMA INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ENTERPRISE AND NEW BROCKTON. A BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY FLORIDA. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED JULY 13 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD JULY 19-23 CALLS FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED JULY 13 FOR THE PERIOD JULY 21-27 CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. THE THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK ISSUED JUNE 21 FOR JULY-SEPTEMBER CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. DESPITE THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK INDICATING IMPROVEMENT FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS SUMMER...COMPLETE ELIMINATION OF THE DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY AS RAINFALL DEFICITS ACCUMULATED SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR ARE APPROACHING OR HAVE A EXCEEDED A FOOT AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CONDITIONS REMAIN AT NEUTRAL LEVELS. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN ENSO PREDICTIONS...ALONG WITH THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED DECREASE IN OBSERVED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EITHER A SLOWER EVOLUTION TOWARD LA NINA OR THE CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA...AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI