000 FGUS72 KTAE 131900 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-180000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 300 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006 ...DROUGHT POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... SYNOPSIS... THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WAS DOMINATED BY A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WHICH SUPPRESSED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AND DIVERTED FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...REPLACED BY A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALLOWED A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...A RARE EVENT FOR EARLY JULY. AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCED THE SEA BREEZE...AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE FRONT...PRODUCED SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MANY LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH...AREAS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BENEFITED FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN. SOME ISOLATED SPOTS MAY HAVE RECEIVED AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE RETURNED TO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ISOLATED. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH JULY 12 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 1 THROUGH JULY 12. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 24.44 35.04 -10.60 70 SINCE JUNE 1 9.32 10.04 - 0.72 93 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 15.23 26.14 -10.91 58 SINCE JUNE 1 2.71 6.94 - 4.23 39 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 14.08 33.27 -19.19 42 SINCE JUNE 1 3.56 9.01 - 5.45 39 PERRY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 20.38 30.12 - 9.74 68 SINCE JUNE 1 7.53 9.35 - 1.82 81 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 22.04 34.27 -12.23 64 SINCE JUNE 1 2.32 7.36 - 5.04 32 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 20.01 31.38 -11.37 64 SINCE JUNE 1 4.58 7.37 - 2.79 62 QUITMAN GA SINCE JANUARY 1 22.37 29.66 - 7.29 75 SINCE JUNE 1 7.64 7.34 0.34 104 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... MOST RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUE TO RECEDE. IN COMPARISON...FLOWS ON MOST RIVERS HAVE RECEDED TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE 2004...WITH SOME APPROACHING THEIR RECORD LOWEST LEVELS REACHED IN 2000 AND 2002. THE ONLY NORMAL RIVER FLOW OCCURRING IN THE REGION IS THE ST. MARKS RIVER AT NEWPORT FLORIDA. STREAMFLOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ARE BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE...WITH LEVELS IN THE 10TH TO 24TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... WATER LEVELS AT SOME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WELLS ARE APPROACHING THEIR LOWEST VALUES SINCE 2002. LEVELS AT A FEW WELLS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA ARE LOWER THAN THOSE RECORDED DURING THE FALL OF 2004. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...GROUND WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) ARE IN EXCESS OF 700 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH INDICES OF 600 TO 700 COMMON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THESE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF A HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER. OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...KBDI VALUES RANGE FROM 500 TO 600...RESULTING IN HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER RATINGS. OVER AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY...THE FIRE DANGER IS EXTREME. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... A PROLONGED LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MAINTAINING HIGH STRESS LEVELS ON PASTURE WITH POOR TO VERY POOR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. STOCK PONDS REMAIN VERY LOW OR DRY. DESPITE THE ONGOING DROUGHT...COTTON AND SOYBEAN CROPS HAVE IMPROVED AND GROWERS ARE EXPECTING NORMAL YIELDS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...RECENT RAINFALL HAS PASTURE CONDITIONS IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY. WHILE RECENT RAINS HAVE IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS ABNORMALLY DRY. CATTLE PRODUCERS CONTINUE TO FEED HAY TO THEIR LIVESTOCK. IRRIGATED CROPS REMAIN IN FAIR SHAPE WHILE DRYLAND CROPS ARE IN POOR CONDITION. THE CORN HARVEST IS EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL SWING BY THE END OF THE MONTH. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED JULY 12 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD FROM JULY 18 TO JULY 22. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD FROM JULY 20 TO JULY 26. FINALLY...THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED ON JULY 20. $$ JAMSKI