000 FGUS72 KTAE 081954 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321- 091345- FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS...INLAND HYDROLOGIC IMPACT OUTLOOK... DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS IS PREDICTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST... MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. DENNIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS... SOILS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL RELATIVELY WET FROM HEAVY SPRING RAIN THAT OCCURRED THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS RANGED TWO TO FOUR INCHES HELPING TO KEEP RIVER FLOW CONDITIONS ON LOCAL CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS FROM NEAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FORECAST RAINFALL... ...HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FIVE TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE APALACHICOLA RIVER BASIN WESTWARD INCLUDING SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF HURRICANE DENNIS...THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA OR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IF HURRICANE DENNIS TURNS MORE NORTHWARD THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED. OUR BEST FORECAST AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...IS TO EXPECT ONLY TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN BIG BEND...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE. PROJECTED CONDITIONS... BECAUSE OF THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE VERY SENSITIVE AND RESPONSIVE TO LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SPECIFIC BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE... ...THE LOWER CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER... WIND...WAVE...SURGE AND LOCAL HEAVY RAIN MAY GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RISES UP THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER DEPENDING ON THE PATH OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ...THE APALACHICOLA RIVER... THE APALACHICOLA RIVER IS EXPERIENCING SHARP RISES AT BLOUNTSTOWN DUE TO RAINFALL RUNOFF FROM TROPICAL STORM CINDY. THIS RAIN FELL ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA EARLIER THIS WEEK AND IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE CHATTAHOCHEE AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS. WIND...WAVE...SURGE AND LOCAL HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO GENERATE SHARP RISES IN WATER LEVEL ON THE APALACHICOLA RIVER INCLUDING LOW LYING AREAS BELOW BLOUNTSTOWN NEAR WEWAHTICHKA...THE DEAD LAKES...CHIPOLA CUT OFF AND THE CONFLUENCE OF THE CHIPOLA AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS. THE EXTENT OF THESE RISES WILL DEPEND ON THE PATH OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ...THE ST. MARKS AND AUCILLA RIVERS... THE ST. MARKS AND AUCILLA RIVERS ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH DUE TO SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS LEON...JEFFERSON AND MADISON COUNTIES. ONE UNSUBSTANTIATED LOCAL REPORT INDICATES THAT WATER LEVELS IN MADISON COUNTY HAVE NOT BEEN THIS HIGH SINCE 1948. WIND...WAVE... SURGE AND LOCAL HEAVY RAIN MAY GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE ST. MARKS AND AUCILLA RIVERS...DEPENDING ON THE PATH OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ...THE ECOFINA AND STEINHATCHEE RIVERS... SOIL CONDITIONS ARE WET FROM SPRING RAINS. WIND...WAVE...SURGE AND LOCAL HEAVY RAIN COULD GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE LOWER ECOFINA AND STEINHATCHEE RIVERS...DEPENDING ON THE PATH OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ...LOCALLY HEAVY TROPICAL RAINFALL FROM HURRICANE DENNIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE FLOODING IN SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS. ...IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OCCUR TO THE PROJECTED PATH OF HURRICANE DENNIS...UPDATED HYDROLOGIC IMPACT STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. $$ BLOCK/HICKS 24-BLOCK $$