000 FGUS72 KTAE 022155 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-100000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 555 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND MOST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... DURING THE PAST WEEK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY VARIED FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH. SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND RECEIVED TWO TO THREE INCHES. DESPITE THE RECENT RAINS...DEFICITS FOR 2007 RANGE FROM 9 TO 19 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH JULY 1 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 1 THROUGH JULY 1. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 16.20 32.18 -15.98 50 SINCE JUNE 1 6.11 7.18 -1.07 85 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 12.09 23.70 -11.61 51 SINCE JUNE 1 0.41 4.50 -4.09 9 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 16.16 30.53 -14.37 53 SINCE JUNE 1 3.08 6.27 -3.19 49 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.57 30.51 -18.94 38 SINCE JUNE 1 1.69 5.45 -3.76 31 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 12.93 25.51 -12.58 51 SINCE JUNE 1 7.36 6.60 0.76 112 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 22.96 32.18 -9.22 71 SINCE JUNE 1 4.08 5.27 -1.19 77 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 14.48 29.65 -15.17 49 SINCE JUNE 1 2.77 5.29 -2.52 52 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 16.05 29.09 -13.04 55 SINCE JUNE 1 3.67 5.40 -1.41 68 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... STREAM FLOWS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. DAILY RECORD FLOWS WERE RECORDED ON THE FLINT RIVER AT NEWTON GEORGIA. STREAM FLOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REMAIN QUITE LOW...WITH A NUMBER OF MONITORED SITES AT OR NEAR RECORD DAILY LOW FLOWS. THESE INCLUDE THE OCHLOCKONEE...CHIPOLA AND SHOAL RIVERS AND TELOGIA CREEK. THE APALACHICOLA AND ST MARKS RIVERS AND OTHER STREAMS WITH LARGE WATERSHEDS OR SIGNIFICANT GROUND WATER CONTRIBUTIONS ARE FLOWING AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS. THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS CONTINUE. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES FOR THE PAST WEEK INDICATED THREE TO FIVE INCH DEFICITS ACROSS THE REGION. NEARLY 16 MONTHS OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW GROUND WATER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA...WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE HISTORIC LOWS OBSERVED DURING THE PREVIOUS DROUGHT PERIOD FROM 2000-2002. CURRENT WATER LEVELS FOR THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND...BUT ON AVERAGE REMAIN ABOUT ONE TO THREE FEET ABOVE PREVIOUS LOWS. PROLONGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED UPCOMING OF SALT WATER IN SOME WELLS...AND SUFFICIENT WATER RESOURCES MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE TO MEET WATER USE DEMANDS. ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW. MOST MONITORING WELLS ARE APPROACHING THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER LEVELS...WHICH NORMALLY OCCUR IN THE LATE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... DURING THE PAST WEEK...SCATTERED RAINFALL LOWERED KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES (KBDI)/FIRE DANGER TO A RANGE OF 450 TO 650/MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOIL CONDITIONS REMAINED SHORT TO VERY SHORT...WITH AREAS OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. IN JACKSON COUNTY...HAY CONTINUED TO SUFFER WITH MOST FIELDS STILL BROWN...AND ALL BUT IRRIGATED CORN HAS BEEN NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY THE DROUGHT WITH CATTLEMEN FEEDING THE ABANDONED CORN TO CATTLE. SOME CATTLE WERE WERE SOLD FOR LACK OF FEED AS HAY REMAINED SCARCE AND SHELLED CORN EXPENSIVE. PASTURE CONDITIONS RANGED FROM VERY POOR TO GOOD. LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY FAIR. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE WAS RATED SHORT TO VERY SHORT...WITH AREAS OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE. SCATTERED RAINS PREVENTED CROP CONDITIONS FROM DETERIORATING FURTHER IN SOME AREAS. DRYLAND CROPS WERE IN MUCH WORSE CONDITION THAN IRRIGATED CROPS. LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY POOR TO FAIR. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOIL MOISTURE WAS RATED SHORT...WITH SOME AREAS OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE FROM SPOTTY RAINS. OVERALL...PASTURE AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS REMAINED POOR. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...WITH VOLUNTARY WATER REDUCTIONS REQUESTED. AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT. THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT HAS ISSUED A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING EFFECTIVE JUNE 5 FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...NO WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GEORGIA. A BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WALTON...BAY...GULF...AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED JULY 2 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD JULY 8-12 CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED JULY 2 FOR THE PERIOD JULY 10-16 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR JULY ISSUED JUNE 30 PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. FINALLY...THE THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK ISSUED JUNE 21 FOR JULY-SEPTEMBER CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. DESPITE THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK INDICATING SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS SUMMER...COMPLETE ELIMINATION OF THE DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY AS RAINFALL DEFICITS ACCUMULATED SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR ARE APPROACHING OR HAVE A EXCEEDED A FOOT AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CONDITIONS REMAIN AT NEUTRAL LEVELS. MOST STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AUGUST...WHILE MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE LA NINA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. HISTORICALLY...THE NEXT FEW MONTHS ARE A FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR THE ONSET OF LA NINA. ALSO...DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA...AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI