000 FGUS72 KTAE 300001 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-040000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 800 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006 ...DROUGHT POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER WESTERN AREAS WHILE RECENT RAINS PROVIDE RELIEF FOR EASTERN AREAS... SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF JUNE AS A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO...WHICH FORMED IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON JUNE 11...AFFECTED MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA JUNE 12-14. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ALBERTO RANGED FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY TALLAHASSEE...TIFTON...VALDOSTA AND CROSS CITY...WHILE MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH. IN THE WAKE OF ALBERTO...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNED TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS RESULTED IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. BY THE FOURTH WEEK OF JUNE...THE RIDGE HAD MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO COMMENCE. PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH FOCUSED MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA. PERSISTENT AREAS OF STRONG STORMS PRODUCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA JUNE 25-26. ON JUNE 27...SLOW MOVING SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN LEON COUNTY. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH JUNE 28 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 1 THROUGH JUNE 28. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 23.46 31.42 - 7.96 75 SINCE MARCH 1 13.75 21.43 - 7.68 64 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 14.85 23.11 - 8.26 64 SINCE MARCH 1 9.13 14.48 - 5.35 63 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 13.12 29.29 -16.70 45 SINCE MARCH 1 6.54 18.84 -12.30 35 PERRY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 19.88 26.22 - 6.34 76 SINCE MARCH 1 12.23 17.49 - 5.26 70 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 21.90 32.35 -10.45 68 SINCE MARCH 1 11.40 20.47 - 9.07 56 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 19.53 28.51 - 8.98 69 SINCE MARCH 1 8.62 17.61 - 8.99 49 QUITMAN GA SINCE JANUARY 1 22.15 26.85 - 4.70 82 SINCE MARCH 1 12.15 16.59 - 4.44 73 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... MOST RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE. AS A COMPARISON...FLOWS ON MOST RIVERS HAVE RECEDED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS SEEN SINCE 2004...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE THE LOWEST LEVELS REACHED IN 2002 AND 2000. THE ONLY NORMAL RIVER FLOWS OCCURRING IN THE AREA ARE THE ST. MARKS AND AUCILLA RIVERS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. STREAMFLOWS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ARE WELL BELOW BELOW NORMAL. RAINS FROM ALBERTO AND THIS PAST WEEK HAVE IMPROVED FLOWS TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... LEVELS AT SOME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WELLS ARE APPROACHING THEIR LOWEST VALUES SINCE 2002. LEVELS AT A FEW WELLS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA ARE LOWER THAN THOSE RECORDED DURING THE FALL OF 2004. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA HAVE LOWERED KBDI VALUES FROM 500 TO 600 DOWN TO 300 TO 400...HOWEVER DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER FROM MODERATE TO HIGH. HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH KBDI VALUES BETWEEN 550 AND 650. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WITH KBDI VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 600. THE FIRE DANGER RATING OVER EXTREME SOUTH GEORGIA HAS DECLINED TO LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS DUE TO RAINS WHICH FELL FROM ALBERTO AND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CAIRO TO ALBANY STILL REMAIN IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... DECLINING SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE MAINTAINING MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND MOST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PRODUCERS ARE EVALUATING THE USE OF ALTERNATIVE FEED SOURCES FOR CATTLE. RAINS FROM TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TWO WEEKS AGO ALLOWED SOME NORTH FLORIDA GROWERS TO FINISH PLANTING CROPS. PASTURE CONDITIONS RANGED FROM FAIR OVER NORTH FLORIDA TO POOR IN THE PANHANDLE. IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROWERS ARE THANKFUL FOR THE RAINS FROM ALBERTO AND EARLY THIS WEEK. CROPS HAVE BENEFITED FROM REPLENISHED SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. OUTLOOK... THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED JUNE 28TH BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD FROM JULY 4TH THROUGH THE 8TH. LIKEWISE...THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD FROM JULY 6TH THROUGH THE 12TH. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD JULY THROUGH SEPTEMBER CALLS FOR FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED IN APPROXIMATELY TWO WEEKS. $$ JAMSKI