000 FGUS72 KTAE 231657 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-011200- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1255 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND HAVE EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND MOST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... DURING THE PAST WEEK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT TEMPORARY RELIEF TO MUCH OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MOST OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD JUNE 19-21...RANGING FROM A 0.5 INCH TO NEARLY 2.5 INCHES. HOWEVER...AREAS IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE APALACHICOLA RIVER RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.25 INCH. RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR 2007 ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 8 AND 19 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH JUNE 22 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 1 THROUGH JUNE 22. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 13.18 29.93 -16.75 44 SINCE JUNE 1 3.09 4.93 -1.84 63 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.88 22.05 -10.75 54 SINCE JUNE 1 0.20 2.85 -2.65 7 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 14.71 28.36 -13.65 52 SINCE JUNE 1 1.63 4.10 -2.47 40 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 10.91 29.85 -18.94 37 SINCE JUNE 1 1.03 3.55 -2.52 29 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.45 23.25 -11.80 49 SINCE JUNE 1 5.88 4.34 1.54 135 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 22.58 30.55 -7.97 74 SINCE JUNE 1 3.70 3.64 0.06 102 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 13.92 27.97 -14.05 50 SINCE JUNE 1 2.21 3.61 -1.40 61 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 15.83 27.41 -11.58 58 SINCE JUNE 1 3.45 3.40 0.05 101 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... STREAMFLOWS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. STREAMFLOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REMAIN QUITE LOW...WITH A NUMBER OF MONITORED SITES AT OR NEAR RECORD DAILY LOW FLOWS. THESE INCLUDE THE OCHLOCKONEE...CHIPOLA AND SHOAL RIVERS AND THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT CARYVILLE. THE APALACHICOLA AND ST MARKS RIVERS AND OTHER STREAMS WITH LARGE WATERSHEDS OR SIGNIFICANT GROUND WATER CONTRIBUTIONS ARE FLOWING AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS. THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS PERSIST. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES FOR THE PAST WEEK INDICATE FOUR TO FIVE INCH DEFICITS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND TWO TO FOUR INCH DEFICITS ELSEWHERE. FIFTEEN MONTHS OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW GROUND WATER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA...WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE HISTORIC LOWS OBSERVED DURING THE PREVIOUS DROUGHT PERIOD FROM 2000-2002. CURRENT WATER LEVELS FOR BOTH THE SAND-AND-GRAVEL AQUIFER AND THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER ARE GENERALLY ONE TO THREE FEET ABOVE PREVIOUS LOWS. PROLONGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED UPCOMING OF SALT WATER IN SOME WELLS...AND SUFFICIENT WATER RESOURCES MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE TO MEET WATER USE DEMANDS. ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL. SEVERAL WELLS ARE APPROACHING THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER LEVELS...WHICH NORMALLY OCCUR IN THE LATE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES (KBDI)/FIRE DANGER RANGED FROM 500 TO 700/HIGH TO VERY HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...KBDI VALUES/FIRE DANGER WERE IN THE 300 TO 500/MODERATE TO HIGH. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOIL CONDITIONS REMAINED SHORT TO VERY SHORT. THE ONGOING DROUGHT HAS DAMAGED MOST FIELD CROPS WITH SOME GROWERS CONSIDERING NOT REPLANTING. COTTON AND PEANUTS PLANTED IN LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE HAVE NOT EMERGED. THE CORN CROP IN WASHINGTON COUNTY IS SEVERELY HURT AND MAY BECOME A MAJOR LOSS SHOULD NORMAL SUMMER RAINS NOT DEVELOP. HAY PRODUCERS HAVE LOST ONE TO TWO CUTTINGS THIS YEAR...AND THE SHORTAGE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON. GRASS IS SHORT AND PASTURE IS SO POOR THAT CATTLE NUMBERS ARE DECLINING. FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOIL MOISTURE WAS GENERALLY SHORT TO VERY SHORT...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS FROM RECENT RAINS. LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY FAIR. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE RANGES FROM SHORT OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TO VERY SHORT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. SPOTTY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED ADEQUATE MOISTURE FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS REPORTED IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONDITION OF PASTURES AND HAY FIELDS...AS WELL AS LATE-PLANTED COTTON AND PEANUTS. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN WITH 780 PERCENT OF THE TOPSOIL MOISTURE RATED VERY SHORT. SPOTTY RAINFALL OFFERED LITTLE RELIEF TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT. HAY FIELDS AND PASTURES HAVE SUFFERED TREMENDOUSLY...FORCING MANY RANCHERS TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HERDS AS FEED STUFFS ARE EXPENDED AND FEED COSTS REMAIN HIGH. LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DECLINE...WITH POOR TO VERY POOR CONDITIONS REPORTED. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...WITH VOLUNTARY WATER REDUCTIONS REQUESTED. AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT. THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT HAS ISSUED A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING EFFECTIVE JUNE 5 FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...NO WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN ENFORCED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GEORGIA. A BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WALTON...BAY...GULF...AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED JUNE 22 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 28-JULY 2 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED JUNE 22 FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 30-JULY 6 CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR JULY ISSUED JUNE 21 PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. FINALLY...THE THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK ISSUED JUNE 21 FOR JULY-SEPTEMBER CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. DESPITE THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK INDICATING SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS SUMMER...COMPLETE ELIMINATION OF THE DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY AS RAINFALL DEFICITS ACCUMULATED SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR ARE APPROACHING OR HAVE A EXCEEDED A FOOT AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BETWEEN 12 AND 18 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED TO END THE LONG TERM DROUGHT. CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CONDITIONS REMAIN AT NEUTRAL LEVELS. MOST STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AUGUST...WHILE MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE LA NINA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. HISTORICALLY...THE NEXT FEW MONTHS ARE A FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR THE ONSET OF LA NINA. ALSO...DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA...AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI