000 FGUS72 KTAE 161026 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-251200- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 625 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE... ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO MOST OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND... SYNOPSIS... DURING THE PAST WEEK...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT TEMPORARY RELIEF TO PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...WITH UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OBSERVED AT A FEW LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS REMAINED DRY...INCLUDING TALLAHASSEE. RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR THIS YEAR ARE RUNNING 11 TO 16 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRIGGERED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH ONE TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS COMMON. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH JUNE 15 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD JUN 1 THROUGH JUNE 15. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 12.57 28.26 -15.69 44 SINCE JUNE 1 2.48 3.26 -0.78 76 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.77 20.99 -9.22 56 SINCE JUNE 1 0.09 1.79 -1.70 1 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 13.99 26.89 -12.90 52 SINCE JUNE 1 0.91 2.63 -1.72 35 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 10.77 28.60 -17.83 38 SINCE JUNE 1 0.89 2.30 -1.41 39 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 9.53 21.65 -12.12 44 SINCE JUNE 1 3.96 2.74 1.22 145 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 20.76 29.36 -8.60 71 SINCE JUNE 1 1.88 2.45 -0.57 77 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 13.27 26.72 -13.45 50 SINCE JUNE 1 1.56 2.36 -0.80 66 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 15.01 26.24 -11.23 57 SINCE JUNE 1 2.63 2.23 0.40 118 QUITMAN GA SINCE JANUARY 1 9.32 24.51 -15.19 38 SINCE JUNE 1 2.95 2.19 0.76 135 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS ON JUNE 12 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA PRODUCED SHARP RISES ON THE FOLLOWING RIVERS AND CREEKS... KINCHAFOONEE CREEK EAST OF DAWSON...3.5 FEET LITTLE RIVER WEST OF ADEL...0.7 FEET MUCKALEE CREEK NORTHEAST OF LEESBURG...0.7 FEET WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER SOUTHWEST OF VALDOSTA...1.75 FEET FLINT RIVER AT NEWTON...0.8 FEET OVERALL...STREAMFLOWS WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. STREAMFLOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REMAIN QUITE LOW...WITH MOST SITES REPORTING WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL)...WITH A NUMBER OF MONITORED SITES AT OR NEAR RECORD DAILY LOW FLOWS. THESE INCLUDE THE OCHLOCKONEE... CHIPOLA AND SHOAL RIVERS AND THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT CARYVILLE. THE APALACHICOLA AND ST MARKS RIVERS AND OTHER STREAMS WITH LARGE WATERSHEDS OR SIGNIFICANT GROUND WATER CONTRIBUTIONS ARE FLOWING AT HIGHER LEVELS. ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS (10-24 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LESS) CONTINUE... DESPITE THE RECENT RAINS FROM TROPICAL STORM BARRY. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES FOR THE PAST WEEK INDICATE FOUR TO FIVE INCH DEFICITS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND ONE TO THREE INCH DEFICITS ELSEWHERE. DAILY PAN EVAPORATION RATES FOR THE SAME PERIOD RANGED FROM 0.25 TO 0.30 INCHES. FIFTEEN MONTHS OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW GROUND WATER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA...WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE HISTORIC LOWS OBSERVED DURING THE PREVIOUS DROUGHT PERIOD FROM 2000-2001. CURRENT WATER LEVELS FOR BOTH THE SAND-AND-GRAVEL AQUIFER AND THE FLORIDAN AQUIFER ARE GENERALLY ONE TO THREE FEET ABOVE PREVIOUS LOWS. PROLONGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED UPCOMING OF SALT WATER IN SOME WELLS...AND SUFFICIENT WATER RESOURCES MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE TO MEET WATER USE DEMANDS. ACROSS SOME AREAS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL...WHILE IN OTHER AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN FROM TROPICAL STORM BARRY AND DURING THE PAST WEEK'S SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...LEVELS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY. SEVERAL WELLS ARE APPROACHING THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER LEVELS...WHICH NORMALLY OCCUR IN THE LATE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES (KBDI)/FIRE DANGER RANGED FROM 500 TO 700/HIGH TO VERY HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM BARRY AND RECENT RAINS KEPT KBDI VALUES/FIRE DANGER IN THE 300 TO 500/LOW TO MODERATE RANGE. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE...RECENT RAINS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS...WHICH ALLOWED PEANUT AND COTTON PLANTING TO RESUME. OVERALL...SOIL CONDITIONS REMAINED SHORT TO VERY SHORT. PASTURE WAS MOSTLY POOR DUE TO THE LONG TERM DROUGHT...BUT HAS GREENED UP IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED MOISTURE. MORE RAIN IS NEEDED FOR STOCK PONDS AND CONTINUED PASTURE GROWTH. FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOIL MOISTURE WAS ADEQUATE IN EASTERN AREAS FROM THE RECENT TROPICAL RAINS...WHILE IT REMAINED DRY TO VERY DRY ELSEWHERE. LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY FAIR. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS SHORT TO VERY SHORT...WITH AREAS OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM BARRY AND RECENT HEAVY RAINS. THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE HAS SEEN LITTLE IMPROVEMENT DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN WITH 75 PERCENT OF THE TOPSOIL MOISTURE RATED VERY SHORT. SPOTTY RAINFALL DID LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE PERSISTENT DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...WITH AREA CROPS SUFFERING TREMENDOUSLY. PASTURE CONDITIONS WERE POOR TO VERY POOR. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS HAVE HAD TO MAKE HARSH DECISIONS AS PONDS AND WATERING HOLES DRY UP...AND HAY SUPPLIES GET SHORTER. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... A PHASE ONE WATER SHORTAGE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...WITH VOLUNTARY WATER REDUCTIONS REQUESTED. THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT HAS ISSUED A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING EFFECTIVE JUNE 5 FOR RESIDENTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE WATER USE AND CONSERVE WATER TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE. THUS FAR...NO WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE DISTRICT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER RESOURCES AND WILL WORK WITH WATER UTILITIES AND OTHER USERS TO IMPLEMENT CONSERVATION MEASURES. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GEORGIA. A BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WALTON...HOLMES...BAY...GULF... FRANKLIN...WAKULLA AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES IN FLORIDA. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED JUNE 15 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD JUN 21-25 PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED JUNE 15 FOR THE PERIOD JUN 23-29 FORECASTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE-AUGUST CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. DESPITE THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK INDICATING SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS SUMMER...COMPLETE ELIMINATION OF THE DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY AS RAINFALL DEFICITS ACCUMULATED SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR ARE APPROACHING OR HAVE A EXCEEDED A FOOT AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BETWEEN 12 AND 18 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED TO END THE LONG TERM DROUGHT. CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CONDITIONS REMAIN AT NEUTRAL LEVELS. MOST STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AUGUST...WHILE MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE LA NINA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. HISTORICALLY...THE NEXT FEW MONTHS ARE A FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR THE ONSET OF LA NINA. ALSO...DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA...AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. $$ JAMSKI