000 FGUS72 KTAE 100051 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-171200- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 850 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATE FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE... ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SYNOPSIS... THE PERSISTENT DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENED AND SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND ALLOWED TROPICAL STORM BARRY TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON JUNE 2-3. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM FOUR TO SIX INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...TWO TO FOUR INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN BIG BEND. SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. IN THE WAKE OF BARRY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTERACTED WITH THE SEA BREEZES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AMOUNTS WERE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES. FINALLY...THE COLLISION OF THE GULF SEA BREEZE WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON JUNE 8...WITH RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH JUNE 8 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD JUN 1 THROUGH JUNE 8. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 12.57 26.68 -14.11 47 SINCE JUNE 1 2.48 1.68 0.80 167 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.69 20.08 -8.39 58 SINCE JUNE 1 0.01 0.88 -0.87 1 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 13.23 25.58 -12.35 52 SINCE JUNE 1 0.15 1.32 -1.17 11 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 10.06 26.30 -16.24 38 SINCE JUNE 1 0.18 1.24 -1.06 15 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 9.22 20.24 -11.02 46 SINCE JUNE 1 3.65 1.33 2.32 274 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 19.06 28.19 -9.13 68 SINCE JUNE 1 0.20 1.28 -1.08 16 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 13.22 25.87 -12.65 51 SINCE JUNE 1 1.51 1.20 0.31 126 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 12.96 25.16 -12.20 52 SINCE JUNE 1 0.58 1.15 -0.57 50 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... RUNOFF FROM TROPICAL STORM BARRY'S RAINFALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA CAUSED A 2.25 FOOT RISE ON THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM AT PINETTA FLORIDA...ONLY A 0.5 TO 1 FOOT RISE WAS RECORDED. EVEN ALONG THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...RISES WERE AROUND 0.5 FEET. HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ON JUNE 8 CAUSED A 1-1.5 FOOT RISE ON THE KINCHAFOONEE CREEK AT DAWSON...WITH A 0.5 TO 1 FOOT RISE ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BELLWOOD ALABAMA. STREAMFLOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REMAIN QUITE LOW...WITH MOST SITES REPORTING BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS (10-24 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LESS)...BUT REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE 2000 AND 2002 RECORD LOWS. IT WAS THE LOWEST MAY STREAMFLOW RECORDED IN 98 YEARS FOR THE FLINT RIVER AT ALBANY GEORGIA. RECORD LOW FLOWS ALSO CONTINUE ON THE FLINT RIVER AT NEWTON AND BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA...AND THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR THOMASVILLE GEORGIA. NORMALLY THE LOWEST STREAMFLOWS OF THE YEAR OCCUR DURING THE LATE SUMMER WHEN WATER USE DEMANDS ARE HIGHEST. IF BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL CONTINUES THIS SUMMER...NEW RECORD LOW FLOWS WILL OCCUR. ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS (10-24 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LESS) CONTINUE... DESPITE THE RECENT RAINS FROM BARRY. FLOWS CONTINUE TO APPROACH THEIR 2000 RECORD LOWS. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES FOR THE PAST WEEK INDICATE FOUR TO FIVE INCH DEFICITS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND ONE TO THREE INCH DEFICITS ELSEWHERE. DAILY PAN EVAPORATION RATES FOR THE SAME PERIOD RANGED FROM 0.30 TO 0.35 INCHES. THE USGS WELLS NEAR CRAWFORDVILLE AND GREENHEAD FLORIDA CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONG TERM DECLINE IN GROUND WATER SUPPLY. ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL...EXACERBATED BY THE INCREASE IN WATER PUMPING IN SOME AREAS. SEVERAL WELLS ARE APPROACHING THEIR AVERAGE ANNUAL MINIMUM WATER LEVELS...WHICH NORMALLY OCCUR IN THE LATE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES (KBDI)/FIRE DANGER RANGED FROM 600 TO 700/VERY HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...RAINS FROM TROPICAL STORM BARRY CAUSED KBDI VALUES/FIRE DANGER TO PLUMMET TO 300 TO 450/LOW TO MODERATE. ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...KBDI VALUES/FIRE DANGER RANGED FROM 500 TO 600/HIGH. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE...VERY DRY SOILS CONTINUE TO DELAY PLANTINGS OF FIELD CROPS. IN JACKSON COUNTY...VIRTUALLY ALL DRY LAND CORN IS LOST DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DROUGHT. CATTLEMEN CONTINUE TO FEED HAY. IN WASHINGTON COUNTY...PASTURE IS EXTREMELY SHORT. MANY CATTLEMEN ARE FORCED TO SELL SOME OR ALL OF THEIR CATTLE DUE TO THE LACK OF HAY. FLORIDA BIG BEND...WHILE SOILS IN EASTERN AREAS RECHARGED FROM THE RECENT TROPICAL RAINS...SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE THE REMAINDER OF THE BIG BEND REMAIN DRY TO VERY DRY. IN JEFFERSON COUNTY...LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS CONTINUE TO FEED HAY...AND THE DROUGHT RESULTED IN PERMANENT DAMAGE TO ESTABLISHED PASTURES. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS SHORT TO VERY SHORT...WITH POCKETS OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM BARRY AND RECENT HEAVY RAINS. MOST CROPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EMERGE...AND THOSE THAT HAVE WERE SUFFERING FROM SEVERE DROUGHT STRESS. SOME FARMERS CONTINUE TO PLANT TO MEET INSURANCE DEADLINES. THE CURRENT DROUGHT WILL NOT REFILL THE RESERVOIRS FARMERS USE TO IRRIGATE THEIR FIELDS. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN DAILY...WITH NEARLY 75 PERCENT OF THE TOPSOIL MOISTURE VERY SHORT. PASTURE CONDITIONS DETERIORATED AS WELL...WITH NEARLY 75 PERCENT POOR TO VERY POOR. LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS WERE POOR TO FAIR. CORN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SEVERE STRESS. COTTON AND SOYBEANS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EMERGE DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE. IRRIGATED CROPS ARE FARING BETTER...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PUT OUT ENOUGH WATER. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES REMAIN IN PLACE BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTED THAT SEVERAL WATER UTILITIES ARE CONSIDERING VOLUNTARY WATER USE NOTICES TO CUSTOMERS. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GEORGIA. A STATEWIDE BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED JUNE 9 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD JUN 15-19 PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED JUNE 9 FOR THE PERIOD JUN 17-23 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE-AUGUST CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. DESPITE THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK INDICATING SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS SUMMER...COMPLETE ELIMINATION OF THE DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY AS RAINFALL DEFICITS ACCUMULATED SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR ARE APPROACHING OR HAVE A EXCEEDED A FOOT AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CONDITIONS REMAIN AT NEUTRAL LEVELS. MOST STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AUGUST...WHILE MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE LA NINA WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. HISTORICALLY...THE NEXT FEW MONTHS ARE A FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR THE ONSET OF LA NINA. ALSO...DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA...AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED JUNE 16. $$ JAMSKI