000
FGUS72 KTAE 092253 CCA
ESFTAE
ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-
073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-
095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-
101600-

FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
525 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005

...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE...INLAND HYDROLOGIC IMPACT OUTLOOK...

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COASTLINE.  ARLENE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FLORIDA
COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN HAS ALREADY
BEEN ENHANCED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN HEAVY
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SCATTERED PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS...THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED THE PAST TWO WEEKS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...RESULTING IN
MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS.  RIVERS ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE APALACHICOLA...CHIPOLA... OCHLOCKONEE..ST MARKS AND
WITHLACOOCHEE RIVERS ARE ALL RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE BANKFULL
LEVELS WHILE THE AUCILLA RIVER IS JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. 
FORTUNATELY THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER...THOUGH RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL...STILL HAS PLENTY OF STORAGE ROOM IN THE HEADWATERS ABOVE
WEST POINT. POOL ELEVATIONS BELOW WEST POINT INCLUDING GEORGE LOCK
AND DAM AND WOODRUFF DAM ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL.

FORECAST CONDITIONS...

...THOSE RIVERS CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH CAN HANDLE TWO TO THREE INCHES
OF BASIN WIDE AVERAGE RAIN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING WILL OCCUR.  HOWEVER...LOCALIZED HIGH INTENSITY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN GENERATE SHARP LOCAL RISES NOT REFLECTED IN LONG RANGE
RIVER FORECASTS.  

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TYPICALLY OCCURS WITH LANDFALLING TROPICAL
CYCLONES THAT CAN GENERATE FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS IN SMALL
CREEKS...STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS.  THESE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS CAN EASILY
REACH 5 TO 10 INCHES OR MORE AND GENERATE FLASH FLOODING.

THOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISELY PREDICT WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE...PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS INDICATE
THAT RIVERS...SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS AND URBANIZED LOCATIONS IN OUR
AREA ARE WET AND ARE MUCH MORE RESPONSIVE THAN NORMAL TO RAINFALL.

IF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE CONTINUES ON ITS CURRENT PROJECTED PATH...A
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY 10 JUNE.

52-LANIER
$$