000 FGUS72 KTAE 081935 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-132030- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 300 PM EDT THU JUN 08 2006 ...DROUGHT POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN...SUMMER SEABREEZE RAIN DELAYED... SYNOPSIS...LACK OF RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS ONCE AGAIN CAUSING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE. DESPITE AN OPTIMISTIC START TO THE MONTH OF MAY WITH DECENT RAINFALL...THE TAP TURNED OFF AND THE MONTH OF MAY ENDED UP BEING BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHICH NORMALLY WOULD RECEIVE 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN MAY...ONLY RECORDED MOSTLY BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR 25 AND 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WAS GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH RAINFALL RANGING MOSTLY 3 TO 4 INCHES. A MAJOR EXCEPTION WAS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE MONTH IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA OVER SEMINOLE...MILLER AND DECATUR COUNTIES WHO RECEIVED IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 INCHES. THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RANGED 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH 3 TO 4 INCH TOTALS COMMON OVER INLAND COUNTIES. HOWEVER NEAR COASTAL AREAS ONLY RECEIVED NEAR 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR LESS. THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVER THE LOWER APALACHICOLA RIVER INCLUDING JACKSON COUNTY TOTALED 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH IS EQUIVALENT TO NEAR 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE SAME THING OCCURRED OVER THE ST MARKS AND AUCILLA RIVER BASINS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. UNFORTUNATELY THAT RAINFALL MOSTLY MISSED THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER BASIN IN BETWEEN AND MOST AREAS OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND IN DIXIE...TAYLOR...LAFAYETTE AND MADISON COUNTIES. CURRENTLY...THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAVE SHOWN NEARLY NO RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL OVER SMALL PORTIONS OF DIXIE...LAFAYETTE AND TAYLOR COUNTIES IN THE EASTERN BIG BEND. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AND PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH JUNE 7 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE LOCAL TRI-STATE AREA. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 1 THROUGH JUNE 7. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 15.76 26.46 -10.70 60 SINCE MARCH 1 6.05 16.47 -10.42 37 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 12.61 19.96 - 7.35 63 SINCE MARCH 1 5.88 11.33 - 5.45 52 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 15.02 25.41 -10.39 59 SINCE MARCH 1 7.02 14.96 - 7.94 47 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 18.88 28.03 - 5.07 67 SINCE MARCH 1 8.80 16.15 - 7.35 54 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 14.94 25.01 -10.07 60 SINCE MARCH 1 4.85 14.11 -9.26 34 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...AS COULD BE EXPECTED...MOST THE RIVERS HAVE DECLINED TO BASE FLOWS. THESE RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ARE CONTINUING TO RECEDE EVEN FURTHER. AS A COMPARISON...FLOWS ON MOST RIVERS HAVE RECEDED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS SEEN SINCE 2004...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE THE LOWEST LEVELS REACHED IN 2002 AND 2000. THE ONLY NORMAL RIVERS FLOWS OCCURRING IN THE AREA ARE THE ST. MARKS RIVER AND THE AUCILLA RIVER IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS...GROUND WATER IS FINALLY RESPONDING TO THE OVERALL LACK OF RAIN. IN GENERAL...LEVELS AT MOST GEORGIA WELLS ARE NOW APPROACHING THE LOWEST VALUES THAT OCCURRED IN 2004. A USGS WELL IN WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA APPEARS TO NOW BE LOWER THAN OCT 2004. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...KBDI INDICES ARE BACK ON THE RISE AGAIN RANGING BETWEEN 500 AND 600 ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA EXCEPT 400 TO 500 IN THE EASTERN BIG BEND. THERE ARE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COASTLINE THAT NOW EXCEED KBDI VALUES OF 600. GEORGIA IS NOT MUCH BETTER WITH VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER RATINGS BECOMING MOSTLY EXTREME BY TOMORROW. IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THE KBDI INDICES ARE RANGING BETWEEN 400 AND 550. WITH LITTLE RAIN IN THE OFFING FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...WITH THE LACK OF RAIN..SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA IS DRY AND DROPPING. CATTLE CONTINUE TO BE FED HAY AND THERE IS A REPORT THAT HAY WILL RUN OUT IN SOME AREAS. PEANUTS ARE BEING HIT HARD BY THE LACK OF RAIN AND INABILITY TO SPRAY DUE TO THE LACK OF RAIN. MOST OTHER CROP CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NEAR 50 PERCENT FAVORABLE AT BEST. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DISCUSSION RELEASED JUNE 8TH BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 3 MONTHS. IT CONTINUES TO BE UNCLEAR AS TO HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT A RETURN TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL HAVE ON THE UPCOMING HURRICANE SEASON. HOWEVER...NOAA RELEASED THEIR 2006 HURRICANE OUTLOOK ON MAY 22ND AND IT CALLS FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE SEASON. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED JUNE 7TH BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD FROM JUNE 13TH THROUGH THE 17ST. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD FROM JUNE 15TH THROUGH THE 21ST. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD JUNE THROUGH AUGUST CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED APPROXIMATELY ONCE EVERY TWO WEEKS. $$ BARRY/LANIER