000 FGUS72 KTAE 011746 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-100000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 145 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATE FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE... ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PERPETUATED THE ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WHICH HAS PLAGUED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS SPRING. CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LOCAL SEA BREEZES WERE MINIMAL WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE RECEIVED 25 PERCENT OR LESS OF THEIR NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL. ONLY 0.20 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT THE TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL AIRPORT IN MAY...WHICH MAKES IT THE THIRD DRIEST MAY. THE DRIEST MAY WAS IN 1965 WHEN A TRACE OF RAIN WAS RECORDED. IT WAS THE DRIEST METEOROLOGICAL SPRING (MARCH THROUGH MAY) WITH 2.24 INCHES. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 3.35 INCHES IN 1925. IT WAS ALSO THE FOURTH DRIEST FIVE-MONTH PERIOD (JANUARY THROUGH MAY) WITH 10.09 INCHES. THE DRIEST FIVE-MONTH PERIOD WAS 8.39 INCHES IN 2000. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH MAY 31 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 1ST THROUGH MAY 31. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 10.09 25.00 -14.91 40 SINCE MARCH 1 2.24 15.01 -12.77 15 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.68 19.20 -7.52 61 SINCE MARCH 1 2.99 10.57 -7.58 28 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.25 24.26 -13.01 46 SINCE MARCH 1 1.01 13.81 -12.80 7 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 9.88 25.06 -15.18 39 SINCE MARCH 1 2.83 14.16 -11.33 20 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 5.57 18.91 -13.34 29 SINCE MARCH 1 2.83 10.96 -8.13 26 MAYO FL SINCE JANUARY 1 8.43 19.65 -11.22 43 SINCE MARCH 1 2.29 11.11 -8.82 21 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 19.21 26.91 -7.70 71 SINCE MARCH 1 9.51 15.03 -5.52 63 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 11.71 24.36 -12.65 48 SINCE MARCH 1 2.08 13.52 -11.44 15 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 15.85 24.01 -8.16 66 SINCE MARCH 1 5.92 13.11 -7.19 45 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 9.21 20.03 -10.82 46 SINCE MARCH 1 2.47 10.52 -8.05 23 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... STREAMFLOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO DECLINE...WITH MOST SITES REPORTING BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS (10-24 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LESS)...BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE 2000 AND 2002 RECORD LOWS. RECORD LOW FLOWS CONTINUE ON THE FLINT RIVER AT NEWTON AND BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA...AND THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR THOMASVILLE GEORGIA. ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS (10 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LESS) PERSIST. FLOWS CONTINUE TO APPROACH THEIR 2000 RECORD LOWS. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES FOR THE PAST WEEK INDICATE FOUR TO FIVE INCH DEFICITS ACROSS THE REGION. DAILY PAN EVAPORATION RATES FOR THE SAME PERIOD RANGE FROM 0.30 TO 0.40 INCHES. THE USGS WELLS NEAR CRAWFORDVILLE AND GREENHEAD FLORIDA CONTINUED TO SHOW A LONG TERM DECLINE IN GROUND WATER SUPPLY. IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP...EXACERBATED BY THE INCREASE IN WATER PUMPING IN SOME AREAS. ACCORDING TO DATA COLLECTED BY USGS MONITORING WELLS IN COOK...LOWNDES AND TIFT COUNTIES...GROUND WATER LEVELS IN MAY IN THE DEEP FLORIDAN AQUIFER RANGE FROM TWO TO 25 FEET LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR SINCE 2000. IN RECENT WEEKS...RESIDENTIAL WELLS...WHICH DRAW WATER FROM THE SHALLOW AQUIFER THAT LIES ABOVE THE DEEPER FLORIDAN...HAVE EXPERIENCED A LOWERING OF WATER LEVELS. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGHOUT THE REGION. KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES (KBDI) RANGE FROM 600 TO OVER 700 RESULTING IN VERY DRY FUELS. SEVERAL LARGE WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO BURN IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SMOKE PLUMES FROM THESE FIRES HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CREATED POOR AIR QUALITY. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...VERY DRY SOILS ARE DELAYING PLANTINGS OF FIELD CROPS. CORN IS BEGINNING TO WILT IN SEVERAL PANHANDLE FIELDS. IN WASHINGTON COUNTY...ALL CROPS ARE SUFFERING FROM THE DROUGHT WITH MOST GROUND PREPARATIONS FOR PLANTING HALTED. IN JEFFERSON COUNTY...SOIL MOISTURE IS CRITICALLY SHORT. MOST CORN...COTTON AND PEANUT PLANTING IS DELAYED. PASTURE CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY POOR. MOST CATTLEMEN ARE FEEDING SUPPLEMENTAL GRAIN. SOME PASTURES HAVE NOTHING TO GRAZE. MANY PRODUCERS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAN EARLY OR SELL OFF SOME ANIMALS TO DECREASE THEIR STOCKING RATE. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY LOCATING HAY. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS VERY SHORT. THE DROUGHT CONTINUES TO HAVE A SERIOUS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE. MOST CROPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EMERGE...AND THOSE THAT HAVE WERE SUFFERING FROM EXTREME DROUGHT STRESS. SOME FARMERS ARE PLANTING TO MEET INSURANCE DEADLINES. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS CONTINUED CULLING THEIR HERDS DUE TO THE LACK OF HAY AND GRAZING. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN DAILY...WITH TOPSOIL MOISTURE VERY SHORT. SOME FARMERS ARE GOING TO DELAY FURTHER PLANTINGS UNTIL THEY RECEIVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE. CORN GROWTH HAS BEN STUNTED AND SHOWS SIGNS OF STRESS. FORAGE AND HAY PRODUCTION HAS SUFFERED. LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS WERE FAIR TO POOR. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES REMAIN IN PLACE BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT REPORTED THAT SEVERAL WATER UTILITIES ARE CONSIDERING VOLUNTARY WATER USE NOTICES TO CUSTOMERS. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE CONTINUES FOR GEORGIA. A STATEWIDE BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA. OUTLOOK... CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ARE IMPROVING THIS WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA INCLUDING THE FLINT...WITHLACOOCHEE AND OCHLOCKONEE RIVER BASINS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. UNFORTUNATELY...MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL MISS OUT ON THE RAINFALL. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN BY MID TO LATE WEEK. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL BE THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED MAY 31 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD JUN 6-10 PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED MAY 31 FOR THE PERIOD JUN 8-14 CALLS FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS. THE MONTHLY OUTLOOK ISSUED MAY 31 FOR JUNE CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. FINALLY...THE SUMMER OUTLOOK (JUNE-AUGUST) PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. DESPITE THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK INDICATING SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS SUMMER...COMPLETE ELIMINATION OF THE DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY AS RAINFALL DEFICITS ACCUMULATED SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR ARE APPROACHING OR HAVE A EXCEEDED A FOOT AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION CONDITION REMAINS NEUTRAL. SUBSURFACE CONDITIONS AND RECENT FORECAST MODELS ARE PREDICTING A TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE SUMMER. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHEN THE LA NINA WILL DEVELOP AND HOW STRONG IT MIGHT BE. DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA...AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED JUNE 8. $$ JAMSKI