000 FGUS72 KTAE 240943 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-020000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 545 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATE FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SYNOPSIS... THE OVERALL PATTERN FEATURED A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WHICH DIVERTED SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WERE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION IN THE ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC FRONTS. RAINFALL WAS SPOTTY...AND GENERALLY AVERAGED LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MARIANNA FLORIDA AND GENEVA ALABAMA RECEIVED THE LION'S SHARE OF LIQUID SUNSHINE WITH ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES. RAINFALL DEFICITS CONTINUE TO GROW...WITH TALLAHASSEE...CHIPLEY AND CROSS CITY FLORIDA RECORDING DEPARTURES IN EXCESS OF A FOOT SINCE JANUARY 1. THE MAY MONTHLY PRECIP AT TALLAHASSEE OF 0.20 INCHES IS CURRENTLY THE THIRD DRIEST ON RECORD. THE DRIEST MAY ON RECORD WAS IN 1965 WHEN ONLY A TRACE WAS RECORDED. IF NO ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS THIS MONTH...THE MARCH THROUGH MAY PERIOD OF 2.24 INCHES AT TALLAHASSEE WILL SET A RECORD FOR THE DRIEST SPRING SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1885. THE DRIEST MARCH THROUGH MAY PERIOD WAS IN 1925 WHEN 3.35 INCHES OF RAIN FELL. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH MAY 23 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 1ST THROUGH MAY 23. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 10.09 23.48 -13.39 43 SINCE MARCH 1 2.24 13.49 -11.25 17 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.68 18.45 -6.77 63 SINCE MARCH 1 2.99 9.82 -6.83 30 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.12 23.10 -11.98 48 SINCE MARCH 1 0.88 12.65 -11.77 7 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 9.88 23.87 -13.99 41 SINCE MARCH 1 2.83 12.97 -10.14 22 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 5.57 17.90 -12.33 31 SINCE MARCH 1 2.83 9.95 -7.12 28 MAYO FL SINCE JANUARY 1 8.43 18.61 -10.18 45 SINCE MARCH 1 2.29 10.07 -7.78 23 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 18.69 25.63 -6.94 73 SINCE MARCH 1 8.99 13.75 -4.76 65 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 11.71 23.31 -11.60 50 SINCE MARCH 1 2.08 12.47 -10.39 17 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 15.85 22.92 -7.07 69 SINCE MARCH 1 5.92 12.02 -6.10 49 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 9.21 19.23 -10.02 48 SINCE MARCH 1 2.47 9.72 -7.25 25 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... STREAMFLOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO FALL...WITH MOST SITES REPORTING BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS...BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE 2000 AND 2002 RECORD LOWS. THE USGS REPORTED RECORD LOW FLOWS ON THE FLINT RIVER AT NEWTON AND BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA...AND THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR THOMASVILLE GEORGIA. ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS (10 PERCENT OR LESS OF NORMAL) PERSIST. FLOWS ARE APPROACHING THE 2000 RECORD LOWS. WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO...FLOWS IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 2000 RECORD LOWS. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... THE USGS WELLS NEAR CRAWFORDVILLE AND GREENHEAD FLORIDA SHOW A LONG TERM DECLINE IN GROUND WATER SUPPLY. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...SEVERE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP...BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE 2000 AND 2002 RECORD LOWS. SEVERAL WELLS ARE APPROACHING THEIR AVERAGE YEARLY LOW WATER LEVELS...WHICH ARE NORMALLY REACHED IN THE LATE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES (KBDI) RANGING FROM 550 OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO OVER 700 ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE. SEVERAL LARGE WILDFIRES HAVE IGNITED IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE PAST MONTH. SMOKE FROM THESE FIRES HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CREATED POOR AIR QUALITY. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...VERY DRY SOILS ARE DELAYING PLANTINGS OF FIELD CROPS. CORN IS BEGINNING TO WILT IN SEVERAL PANHANDLE FIELDS. SEVERAL COTTON FIELDS HAVE NOT BEEN PLANTED AS GROWERS ARE WAITING FOR ADEQUATE RAINFALL. THE HAY SHORTAGE IS CRITICAL IN SEVERAL AREAS. TOPSOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES ARE RUNNING SHORT TO VERY SHORT. PASTURE CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY POOR. MOST CATTLEMEN ARE FEEDING SUPPLEMENTAL GRAIN. SOME PASTURES HAVE NOTHING TO GRAZE. MANY PRODUCERS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAN EARLY OR SELL OFF SOME ANIMALS TO DECREASE THEIR STOCKING RATE. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE IS VERY SHORT. THE DROUGHT CONTINUES TO HAVE A SERIOUS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE. CROP...PASTURE AND HAYFIELD CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING. POND AND STREAM LEVELS CONTINUE TO DECLINE. PLANTING OF COTTON AND PEANUTS HAS NEARLY CEASED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF SOIL MOISTURE. FARMERS ARE IRRIGATING AS OFTEN AS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...INCREASING DROUGHT HAS DEPLETED SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS TO SHORT TO VERY SHORT LEVELS. CROPS AND PASTURES SHOWED SIGNS OF STRESS FROM THE INTENSIFYING DROUGHT. FORAGE AND HAY PRODUCTION HAS SUFFERED. MANY PRODUCERS HAVE CONSIDERED WEANING CALVES EARLIER AND AT A LIGHTER WEIGHT TO ALLEVIATE SOME STRESS ON BROOD COWS. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES REMAIN IN PLACE BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE CONTINUES FOR GEORGIA. A STATEWIDE BURN BAN IS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED MAY 23 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD MAY 29-JUN 2 PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED MAY 23 FOR THE PERIOD MAY 31-JUN 6 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. THE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE THROUGH AUGUST PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. DESPITE THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK INDICATING SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS SUMMER...COMPLETE ELIMINATION OF THE DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY AS RAINFALL DEFICITS ACCUMULATED SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR ARE APPROACHING OR HAVE A EXCEEDED A FOOT AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION CONDITION REMAINS NEUTRAL. SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE PREDICTING A RAPID TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE SUMMER. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN LA NINA WILL DEVELOP AND HOW STRONG IT MIGHT BE. DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... CARRIBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND JUNE 1. $$ JAMSKI