000 FGUS72 KTAE 160001 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-230000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 800 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATE FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... SYNOPSIS... THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINED UNCHANGED WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIVERTING SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. A FEW BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AN INCH. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH MAY 14 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 1ST THROUGH MAY 14. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 10.07 21.96 -11.89 46 SINCE MARCH 1 2.22 11.97 -9.75 19 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.68 17.70 -6.02 66 SINCE MARCH 1 2.99 9.07 -6.08 31 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.12 21.97 -10.85 51 SINCE MARCH 1 0.88 11.52 -10.64 8 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 9.88 22.61 -11.45 44 SINCE MARCH 1 2.83 11.71 -7.60 24 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 5.57 17.03 -11.46 33 SINCE MARCH 1 2.83 9.08 -6.25 31 MAYO FL SINCE JANUARY 1 8.34 17.98 -9.64 46 SINCE MARCH 1 2.20 9.44 -7.24 23 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 17.19 24.25 -7.06 71 SINCE MARCH 1 7.49 12.37 -4.88 61 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 11.71 22.28 -10.57 53 SINCE MARCH 1 2.08 11.44 -9.36 18 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 15.85 21.77 -5.92 73 SINCE MARCH 1 5.92 10.87 -4.95 54 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 9.18 18.55 -9.37 49 SINCE MARCH 1 2.44 9.04 -6.60 27 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... STREAMFLOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECLINING...WITH MOST SITES REPORTING BELOW NORMAL FLOWS (10-25 PERCENT OF NORMAL)...BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE 2000 AND 2002 RECORD LOWS. ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN...WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS (10 PERCENT OR LESS OF NORMAL) PERSIST. AT WHITE SPRINGS FLORIDA ON THE SUWANNEE RIVER...FLOWS ARE APPROACHING THE 2000 RECORD LOW. WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS...FLOWS IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 2000 RECORD LOWS. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THE CRAWFORDVILLE USGS WELL CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LONG TERM DECLINE IN GROUND WATER SUPPLY. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS...HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DECLINE...BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE 2000 AND 2002 RECORD LOWS. IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS AT SEVERAL WELLS HAVE BEEN DECLINING WHILE A FEW OTHERS REMAIN IN THE NORMAL RANGE COMPARED TO LEVELS SINCE 1998. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES (KBDI) RANGED FROM 500 TO 600. VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN WHERE KBDI VALUES RANGED FROM 600 TO 700. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS SHORT TO VERY SHORT. THE LACK OF MOISTURE HAS DELAYED PEANUT...CORN AND COTTON PLANTING IN SOME AREAS...WHILE MOST OF THE IRRIGATED ACREAGE HAS BEEN PLANTED. IN GADSDEN COUNTY...DROUGHT CONTINUED TO SLOW THE GROWTH OF CROPS. FLORIDA BIG BEND AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS VERY SHORT. ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY...VEGETABLE HARVESTS BEGAN DESPITE POLLUTION FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE. DROUGHT HAS SEVERELY AFFECTED PASTURES AND HAY CROPS. MOST CATTLEMEN ARE FEEDING SUPPLEMENTAL HAY...WHERE IT CAN BE FOUND. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS SHORT TO VERY SHORT. LINGERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE SEVERELY HAMPERED CROPS...HAYFIELDS AND PASTURES. MOST PASTURES AND HAYFIELDS WERE NOT GROWING...AND SOME CATTLE BREEDERS HAVE BEEN FORCED TO BEGIN REDUCING THEIR HERD. PLANTING OF DRYLAND CROPS HAVE BEEN DELAYED DUE TO THE DROUGHT. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY SHORT. PASTURE CONDITIONS RANGE FROM FAIR TO POOR. DECLINING SOIL MOISTURE IS A CONCERN FOR PEANUT AND COTTON FARMERS WHO HAVE YET TO PLANT THEIR SPRING CROPS. LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS ARE FAIR TO GOOD. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES REMAIN IN PLACE BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. A STATEWIDE LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE CONTINUES FOR GEORGIA. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED MAY 15 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD MAY 21-25 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED MAY 15 FOR THE PERIOD MAY 23-29 CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MAY THROUGH JULY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL ARE PREDICTED. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXPAND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...WITH MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION CONDITION IS NEUTRAL. SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE PREDICTING A RAPID TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN LA NINA WILL DEVELOP AND HOW STRONG IT MIGHT BE. IN GENERAL...LA NINA PROVIDES WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THE WEEK OF MAY 20. $$ JAMSKI