000 FGUS72 KTAE 130101 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-073 -077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-0 99-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-262030- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 900 PM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006 ...DROUGHT POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...IMPROVED RAINFALL REDUCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS... SYNOPSIS... RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS IMPROVED CONDITIONS FROM D1 MODERATE DROUGHT TO D0 ABNORMALLY DRY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THE FIRST 12 DAYS OF MAY 2006 ARE TWICE OR MORE THAT COMPARED TO THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MAY 2005. UNFORTUNATELY...VERY LITTLE OF THE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS OCCURRED IN THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN. IN MAY 2005 ALL OF THE HEAVY RAIN FELL IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUWANNEE WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA RECEIVED LITTLE PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THIS INCREASED RAINFALL THE TOTALS SINCE JAN 1 2006 ARE MUCH LESS THAN THE VERY WET FEB-APR SPRING TRANSITION WE HAD IN 2005 WHICH SOAKED THE ENTIRE AREA. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AND PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH MAY 12 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE LOCAL TRI-STATE AREA. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 1 THROUGH MAY 12. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 13.95 21.51 - 7.56 65 SINCE MARCH 1 4.24 11.52 - 7.28 37 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 12.32 17.46 - 5.14 71 SINCE MARCH 1 5.59 8.83 - 3.24 63 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 13.71 21.61 - 7.90 63 SINCE MARCH 1 5.71 11.16 - 5.45 51 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 18.73 23.80 - 5.07 79 SINCE MARCH 1 8.65 11.92 - 3.27 73 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 14.82 21.41 - 6.59 69 SINCE MARCH 1 4.73 10.51 - 5.78 45 ALTHOUGH ANNUAL RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...THE PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR HAS INCREASED ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 25 PERCENT JUST IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS. ALSO IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS...THE PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE MARCH 1ST HAS INCREASED ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 25 PERCENT AT ALBANY AND TALLAHASSEE TO AS MUCH AS 50 PERCENT AT APALACHICOLA. AT THE END OF APRIL...APALACHICOLA HAD RECEIVED ONLY 13 PERCENT OF ITS NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE MARCH 1ST AND NOW IN MID MAY HAS 63 PERCENT WITH A DEFICIT CUT FROM 6.77 INCHES TO 3.24 INCHES IN JUST TWO WEEKS. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...ALL THE RIVERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLOWS HAVE LEAPED BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. THE SUWANNEE RIVER REMAINS NEAR 40 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. LOCAL REPORTS FROM ADVENT VILLAGE AT DOWLING PARK INDICATE THAT THE WATER IN THE SUWANNEE IS CRYSTAL CLEAR AND THAT MANY NEW SPRINGS ALONG THE BANKS HAVE DEVELOPED. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS...GROUND WATER IN GENERAL IS SHOWING NICE RISES OF 1 TO 3 FEET AT MANY WELLS AND REMAIN AT LEVELS ABOVE THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR. THE USGS VIERCOCKEN WELL IN MILLER COUNTY GEORGIA HAS RISEN 12 FEET OVER THE PAST WEEK. ANOTHER USGS WELL IN RANDOLPH COUNTY ROSE NEARLY 8 FEET. IN FLORIDA...THE REPORT OF CONTINUED GROUND WATER DISCHARGE FROM SPRINGS ON THE SUWANNEE RIVER INDICATES THAT GROUND WATER IS STILL GOOD IN THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN AND SUPPORTING MOST OF THE FLOW ON THE SUWANNEE RIVER. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...KBDI INDICES HAVE DROPPED AND MOSTLY RANGE 200 TO 400 ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXCEPT NEAR 500 RIGHT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST LINE. THE FLORIDA BIG BEND HAS ALSO IMPROVED SOMEWHAT BUT KBDI INDICES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM NEAR 300 TO 500. THE HIGHEST KBDI LEVELS ARE LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN INCLUDING THE SANTA FE RIVER BASIN WEST OF I-75. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE VERY DRY WITH KBDI LEVELS ABOVE 500 EVERYWHERE EAST OF I-75 OVER THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...DESPITE THE RECENT RAINS...SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA IS STILL BELOW NORMAL. A REPORT FROM THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE INDICATES THAT NON-IRRIGATED ROW CROP CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AS WELL AS CATTLE HAVE SUFFERED BECAUSE OF THE SPRING DROUGHT. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SO DRY THAT PLANTING WAS DELAYED. DESPITE THE DRY WEATHER THE WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN INDICATES THAT PLANTING AS OF 7 MAY OF COTTON AND PEANUTS IS AHEAD OF LAST YEAR IN FLORIDA...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA. SINCE MUCH OF THIS PLANTING PROBABLY OCCURRED RECENTLY WITH THE LATE RAINS...ALL THESE CROPS ARE BEHIND IN GROWTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECENT RAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO HELP THE SITUATION...BUT FINAL YIELDS MAY BE AFFECTED THIS YEAR. COST OF FUELS AND FERTILIZER ARE ALSO HURTING FARMERS IN ADDITION TO THE DROUGHT. CATTLE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND HAVE CONTINUED TO BE FED ON HAY. RECENT RAINS HOWEVER SHOULD HELP FIELD GRASSES AND HOPEFULLY AVOID THE NEED FOR TRANSPORTING HAY. OUTLOOK... THE LA NINA CONDITIONS THAT PERSISTED IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC IN EARLY SPRING HAS WEAKENED AND THE LATEST EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DISCUSSION RELEASED ON MAY 11TH BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 6 MONTHS. IT CONTINUES TO BE UNCLEAR AS TO HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT A RETURN TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL HAVE ON THE UPCOMING HURRICANE SEASON. ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS GENERALLY ENHANCED WHEN LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE PACIFIC. NOAA WILL DISCUSS THEIR 2006 HURRICANE OUTLOOK PUBLICLY THROUGH A PRODUCT RELEASE AND PRESS CONFERENCE ON MAY 22ND. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED MAY 11TH BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MAY 17TH THROUGH THE 21ST. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MAY 19TH THROUGH THE 25TH. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD JUNE THROUGH AUGUST CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED APPROXIMATELY ONCE EVERY TWO WEEKS. $$ BARRY/LANIER