000 FGUS72 KTAE 061405 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287- 321-150000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1000 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATE FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUED TO DIVERT STORM SYSTEMS WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE PAST WEEK...PROLONGING THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL...30-YEAR NORMALS ...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH MAY 4 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONAL STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 1ST THROUGH MAY 4. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 9.89 20.54 -10.65 48 SINCE MARCH 1 2.04 10.55 -8.51 19 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.50 16.90 -5.40 68 SINCE MARCH 1 2.81 8.27 -5.46 34 5 N PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.12 20.84 -9.72 53 SINCE MARCH 1 0.88 10.39 -9.51 8 CHIPLEY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 9.88 21.33 -11.45 46 SINCE MARCH 1 2.83 10.43 -7.60 27 CROSS CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 5.35 16.21 -10.86 33 SINCE MARCH 1 2.61 8.26 -5.65 32 MAYO FL SINCE JANUARY 1 7.92 16.78 -8.86 47 SINCE MARCH 1 1.78 8.24 -6.46 22 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 16.84 22.83 -5.99 74 SINCE MARCH 1 7.49 10.95 -3.46 68 CAMILLA GA SINCE JANUARY 1 11.71 21.20 -9.49 55 SINCE MARCH 1 2.08 10.36 -8.28 20 3 SE ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 14.95 20.59 -5.64 73 SINCE MARCH 1 5.02 9.69 -4.67 52 4 N NASHVILLE GA SINCE JANUARY 1 9.18 17.95 -8.77 51 SINCE MARCH 1 2.44 8.44 -6.00 29 HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... STREAMFLOWS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE ABOVE THE RECORD 2000 AND 2002 LOW FLOWS DUE TO ROUTED WATER FROM UPSTREAM RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTH GEORGIA. HOWEVER...FLOWS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER BASIN...AND ALL RIVERS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...SUPPORTED ONLY BY VERY WEAK BASE FLOW AND SPRINGS. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS... IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THE CRAWFORDVILLE USGS WELL CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LONG TERM DECLINE IN GROUND WATER SUPPLY. STRONGER WATER SUPPLY SUPPORT AND HIGHER GROUND WATER LEVELS BETWEEN 2002 AND 2005 BEGAN TO WEAKEN IN 2006...AND ARE FALLING RAPIDLY THIS SPRING. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS MONTH...THERE WILL BE A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DECLINE FROM THEIR MARCH PEAKS...BUT ARE STILL ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS OF 2000 AND 2002. HOWEVER...THE MARCH PEAK THIS YEAR WAS DRAMATICALLY LOWER THAN THE MARCH PEAKS THAT OCCURRED IN 2003 AND 2006 AND IS CLOSE TO THE LOW MARCH PEAK THAT OCCURRED IN 2000. THIS INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE LOSS OF GROUND WATER SUPPORT FOR LOW FLOWS COMING IN THE NEXT TWO MONTHS RESULTING IN GROUND WATER LEVELS REACHING THE LOWS OF 2000 AND 2002. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...THIS WILL KEEP FLOWS ON THE OCHLOCKONEE AND SUWANEE RIVER BASINS EXTREMELY LOW THIS SPRING. IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...GROUND WATER LEVELS AT A FEW WELLS HAVE BEEN DECLINING WHILE OTHERS REMAIN IN THE NORMAL RANGE COMPARED TO LEVELS SINCE 1998. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN. KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICIES (KBDI) RANGED BETWEEN 500 AND 650 IN THESE AREAS. MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE KBDI VALUES RANGED FROM 400 TO 500. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOIL MOISTURE IS SHORT TO VERY SHORT. SOME GROWERS IN JACKSON COUNTY HAVE DELAYED COTTON AND CORN PLANTING DUE TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. COTTON FIELD PREPARATIONS REMAIN STEADY. FLORIDA BIG BEND AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOIL MOISTURE IS MOSTLY VERY SHORT. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...THERE IS LITTLE LIVESTOCK FEED AS WINTER SMALL GRAIN FOR GRAZING DWINDLES AND PERMANENT PASTURE IS SLOW TO GROW DUE TO THE DROUGHT. FORAGE IS SHORT AND WATER HOLES ARE LOW TO DRY. SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOIL MOISTURE IS SHORT TO VERY SHORT. CROP CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY DECLINED DURING THE PAST MONTH DUE TO THE EASTER FREEZE AND THE WORSENING DROUGHT. PASTURES AND FORAGE CROPS HAVE SUFFERED TREMENDOUSLY CAUSING A CRITICAL SITUATION FOR LIVESTOCK OWNERS. GROWERS ARE ANXIOUSLY WAITING FOR RAINFALL TO BEGIN PLANTING PEANUTS AND COTTON...AND IN SOME AREAS THEY ARE IRRIGATING IN ORDER TO BEGIN PLANTING. SOUTHERN ALABAMA...PASTURE CONDITIONS RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD. DECLINING SOIL MOISTURE IS A GRAVE CONCERN FOR PEANUT AND COTTON FARMERS WHO HAVE YET TO PLANT THEIR SPRING CROPS. THE LACK OF RAINFALL COMBINED WITH COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAS PASTURE AND HAY LAND OFF TO A SLOW START THIS SPRING. LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD. SOCIETAL IMPACTS... WATER RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE BY THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. THE ENTIRE STATE OF GEORGIA IS IN LEVEL-2 OUTDOOR WATER-USE SCHEDULE. OUTLOOK... THE LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED MAY 5 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) FOR THE PERIOD MAY 11-15 CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED MAY 5 FOR THE PERIOD MAY 13-19 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING THROUGH JULY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL ARE PREDICTED. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MONTH. THE CURRENT EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CONDITION IS NEUTRAL. CPC FORECAST MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TRANSITION FROM ENSO-NEUTRAL TO LA NINA CONDITIONS DURING MAY-JULY 2007. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN LA NINA WILL DEVELOP AND HOW STRONG IT MIGHT BE. IN GENERAL...LA NINA PROVIDES WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. DURING PAST LA NINA YEARS...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARRIBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY AND THE NATIONAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THE WEEK OF MAY 13. $$ JAMSKI