000 FGUS72 KTAE 291447 ESFTAE ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067- 073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087- 095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321- 152030- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1047 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2006 ...DROUGHT POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE... ...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXIST IN THE PANHANDLE... SYNOPSIS... THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUES IN A D1 MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITION DESPITE THE RECENT RAINFALL. COMPARATIVELY...WE ARE MUCH DRIER IN RAIN TOTALS FOR THIS MARCH AND APRIL THAN THE SAME TIME FRAME IN 2005. CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE GENERALLY SEE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF MAY WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 5 INCH RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE AMOUNTS ARE JUST BELOW 3 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE IMPROVED IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS SPRING AND SO FAR THIS YEAR ARE STILL VERY LOW. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...30-YEAR NORMALS...DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AND PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH APRIL 28 FOR SELECTED SITES ACROSS THE LOCAL TRI-STATE AREA. SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 1 THROUGH APRIL 28. STATION OBSERVED 30-YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL OF NORMAL TALLAHASSEE FL SINCE JANUARY 1 11.08 19.82 - 8.74 56 SINCE MARCH 1 1.37 9.83 - 8.46 14 APALACHICOLA FL SINCE JANUARY 1 7.75 16.42 - 8.67 47 SINCE MARCH 1 1.02 7.79 - 6.77 13 PANAMA CITY FL SINCE JANUARY 1 9.77 20.19 -10.42 48 SINCE MARCH 1 1.77 9.74 - 7.97 18 GENEVA AL SINCE JANUARY 1 13.46 22.07 - 8.61 61 SINCE MARCH 1 3.38 10.19 - 6.81 33 ALBANY GA SINCE JANUARY 1 11.97 19.93 - 7.96 60 SINCE MARCH 1 1.88 9.03 - 7.15 21 RECENT RAINS HAVE INCREASED THE PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE MARCH 1ST ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT AT EACH OF THE ABOVE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE JANUARY 1ST HAS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING NEAR OR A LITTLE OVER ONE HALF OF THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... IN ALABAMA...FLOWS ARE RUNNING 20 TO 30 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. IN GEORGIA...FLOWS ARE GENERALLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL WHICH IS AN IMPROVEMENT FROM TWO WEEKS AGO. THE UPPER FLINT HAS OBVIOUSLY RECEIVED SOME WATER AND IS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. THAT WATER WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER FLINT RIVER THIS WEEK. SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS IN SOUTH GEORGIA HOWEVER ARE STILL RUNNING NEAR 40 TO 45 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. THIS INCLUDES SPRING CREEK...ICHAWAYNOCHAWAY CREEK...OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...LITTLE RIVER AND LOWER OKAPILCO CREEK AND LOWER WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE THEY ARE RUNNING NEAR 40 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. THE ONLY RELATIVELY WET SPOT ARE THE STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE RIVER...WHICH ARE AVERAGING 20 TO 30 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. THE ST. MARKS CONTINUES TO COME IN AS THE WINNER WITH FLOWS NEAR NORMAL. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS DESPITE THE SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT AND DROPPING GROUND WATER LEVELS IT APPEARS THAT LAST SUMMERS TROPICAL RAINFALL PUT ENOUGH WATER INTO THE GROUND TO KEEP WELL LEVELS HIGHER THAN THOSE MEASURED AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR. SOUTHWEST GEORGIA CONTINUES TO BE NEAR OR BETTER THAN THEY WERE THIS TIME LAST YEAR AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FEET HIGHER THAN THE SAME MONTH IN 2005. CURRENT FLORIDA PANHANDLE GROUND WATER LEVEL REPORTS ARE NOT AVAILABLE BUT SHOULD STILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN COMPARED TO THE 1998-2000 DROUGHT. IN GENERAL GROUND WATER SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN BASE FLOWS ACROSS CREEKS AND STREAMS. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.... CONDITIONS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND ARE STILL VERY DRY DESPITE THE RECENT RAINS. THE GREATEST FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TO BE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. KBDI INDICES TODAY RANGED BETWEEN 500 AND 600 ACROSS FLORIDA EXCEPT CALHOUN COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF GULF AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES NEAR THE COAST IN FLORIDA RANGED 600 TO 700. CONDITIONS IN GEORGIA RANGED 200 TO AROUND 400 AND ALABAMA RANGED 300 TO 430...WELL BELOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERN LEVELS. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE NOAA SATELLITE VEGETATION INDEX SHOWS GENERALLY STRESSED TO FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA AS OF 23 APRIL 2006 COMPARED TO MOSTLY FAIR TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN 23 APRIL 2005 WHEN THINGS WERE MUCH WETTER. DESPITE THE LACK OF LONG TERM RAINFALL... AGRICULTURAL REPORTS INDICATE THAT CROP CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREAS IN ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. PLANTING CONDITIONS RANGED AROUND NORMAL EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POOR IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO THE DROUGHT. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT RAINFALL AND MORE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK...SURFACE CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. OUTLOOK... THE LA NINA CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC THE PAST FOUR MONTHS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING RAPIDLY DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 6 MONTHS. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT A RETURN TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL HAVE ON THE UPCOMING HURRICANE SEASON. ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS GENERALLY ENHANCED WHEN LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE PACIFIC. NOAA WILL DISCUSS THEIR 2006 HURRICANE OUTLOOK PUBLICLY THROUGH A PRODUCT RELEASE AND PRESS CONFERENCE ON MAY 22ND. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCE ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...AT THIS TIME POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ISSUED APRIL 28TH BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD FROM MAY 4TH THROUGH 8TH. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MAY THROUGH JULY CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. CREDITS... INFORMATION FOR THIS REPORT WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE WEEKLY DROUGHT MONITOR REPORT...UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... WEEKLY CROP MONITOR...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE...DEPARTMENTS OF FORESTRY FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...NORTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY. THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED APPROXIMATELY ONCE EVERY TWO WEEKS. $$ WOOL/BARRY/LANIER